The Minnesota Twins (24-19) travel to face off against the Cleveland Guardians (27-17) on Friday, May 17th. This game will be played at Progressive Field in Cleveland and televised on APLTV. Both the Twins and Guardians are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. First pitch is set for 7:10 ET.
Twins vs Guardians
The Twins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Yankees with a 5-0 loss. This was especially tough, as they were the slight favorite at -118 on the money line. Things really got away from the Twins in the 1st inning, as the Yankees scored three runs in the inning. New York’s offense added another run in the 6th to close things out.
Joe Ryan got the start for the Twins and took the loss. He only lasted 5 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs on six hits. Ryan also issued three walks and hit a batter. Offensively, the Twins only had three fewer hits than the Yankees but didn’t score a run. Their lone bright spot was a double from Jorge Polanco.
Minnesota will open their series vs. the Guardians on the road, having dropped three straight games, and they are 24-19 overall this season. The Twins are 3rd in the AL Central, 2.5 games behind the Guardians for the division lead. So far, they have gone 12-7 in divisional games.
As the road team, the Twins have gone 13-8 this year compared to an even 11-11 at home. Minnesota has really enjoyed being the favorite this season, going 19-9, and they are 11-1 as the favorite on the road. The Twins’ overall series record is 7-5-2 and they have won three straight series on the road.
Minnesota is 22-21 against the run line this season and has a run differential of +0.3 runs per game. The Twins have been a better bet on the run line on the road, where they are 13-8. They are 15-13 against the run line as the favorite and 7-8 as the underdog.
Minnesota’s over/under record for the season is 20-22, and the average combined run total in their games is 8.8. In games with an over/under line of 8 runs, the record is 4-7-1. Their last four games have gone under the total, and 37.2% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs.
Simeon Woods Richardson Gets The Start For The Twins
Simeon Woods Richardson will be making his third start of the season for the Twins, and he has yet to pick up a decision in his first two outings. He started the year with a 5-2 loss to the White Sox, where he went 5 innings and struck out 8. In his most recent start, he went 4 1/3 innings and gave up 5 runs on 8 hits vs. the Blue Jays.
Twins Offense Breakdown
Carlos Santana and Edouard Julien are both tied for 2nd on the Twins in home runs this season, but both are batting well below the Mendoza line so far this season. However, Santana has three homers in his last six games and is hitting .292 in that stretch. Ryan Jeffers has also been hot of late, going deep three times in his last six games, but is batting just .125 in his last four games.
As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been a much better offensive team on the road so far, averaging 5.4 runs per game. Overall, they are 10th in home runs and have the league’s 5th best ISO figure. Minnesota’s team batting average is just .234, which is 17th in the MLB.
Heading into their last game vs. the Rangers, the Guardians closed out the series with a 4-0 loss. Cleveland was the +162 underdog on the money line going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Guardians, as Carlos Carrasco didn’t give up a run in the first three innings. However, the Rangers scored two runs in the 4th to break things open, and Cleveland’s offense couldn’t score a run. The Guardians only had six hits but didn’t score a run.
Andrés Giménez was the only Guardians hitter to have more than one hit. He went 2/4 with a run scored. Cleveland’s offense really missed Franmil Reyes, who was out with a shoulder injury. The Guardians also wasted a good start from Carrasco, who took the loss, going five innings and giving up just two runs on five hits.
Cleveland is hosting the Twins today with an overall record of 27-17, good for 1st place in the AL Central. The Guardians lead the Royals by 1.5 games and are 7-5 in the division this year. They have been really good at home, going 12-6, and they have also played well on the road, coming in at 15-11.
The Guardians have been really good in day games this year, going 14-4, and they are 17-9 as the favorite. As for how they have fared as the underdog, they are 10-8 and 1-1 as the underdog at home. Cleveland won the final two games of their series vs. the Rangers and are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
When the Guardians win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.7 runs per game. They are 26-18 against the run line this season, and they have been a good bet on the run line as the underdog, going 13-5. They are 10-8 against the run line at home, where their average run margin is 0.6 runs per game.
Today’s over/under line of 8 runs for the Cleveland Guardians game against the Minnesota Twins is right around their season average of 8 runs per game. Their games have gone over the line in 22 of 42 games this season, and the over/under line has been set at 8 runs in seven of their games this season, with a record of 4-3-1 in those games.
Triston McKenzie Gets The Start For The Guardians
Triston McKenzie will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he took the loss and gave up one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. In that start vs. the White Sox, he gave up a total of three homers. Overall, McKenzie has a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 3.54. Opponents are batting .209 off the right-hander this season. McKenzie has made eight starts, and his ERA at home is 3.87 compared to 4.91 on the road. So far, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 7.75 strikeouts per nine innings.
Guardians Offense Breakdown
Josh Naylor comes into the game as the Guardians’ top power threat, as his 12 homers is the 2nd best mark in the league. However, he has struggled a bit of late, hitting just .229 over his last 10 games. Naylor has gone deep four times over that stretch, but the team is hoping he can get his batting average back up, as he is hitting just .261 for the season.
Jose Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/38 in his last 10 games with three homers. For the season, he is batting .249 with a team-high 37 RBIs. Ramirez is also on a three-game hitting streak. As a team, the Guardians are 8th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per contest.
Twins vs Guardians Prediction
Our prediction for this Twins vs. Guardians matchup is that the Guardians will come out on top by a score of 6-5. With the money line payout for the Guardians sitting at -118, this is the best way to play this one, as we have the over/under at 8 runs and are predicting this one to go over.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Triston McKenzie finishing with six strikeouts compared to Simeon Woods Richardson with five. McKenzie is also projected to go just 4 1/3 innings, while Woods Richardson should finish with five innings.
Offensively, we have the Twins finishing with nine hits compared to the Guardians with nine. The Twins are projected to finish with the fifth most home runs on the day, while the Guardians are down in 15th.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
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Last updated:May 17, 2024 Guardians, Twins