Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 5/11/2024

The Minnesota Twins (23-15) travel to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays (17-21) on Saturday, May 11th. This game will be played at Rogers Centre in Toronto and televised on None. The Twins are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Blue Jays are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Twins. First pitch is set for 3:07 ET.

Twins vs Blue Jays

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It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs Blue Jays series. Minnesota went into the matchup as slight underdogs at -105 and squeaked out a 3-2 win. The Twins had a huge 1st inning, scoring all three of their runs, and the Blue Jays could only muster one run in the 3rd inning. As for the Twins, they didn’t score another run after the 5th inning.

Toronto actually outhit the Twins in the game 8 to 7 and had one fewer strikeout, but still came up short on the scoreboard. Heading into the game, the Twins offense had been struggling, as they scored just two runs in the previous game of this series. On the other side, the Blue Jays had scored at least five runs in four straight games.

Joe Ryan pitched well for the Twins in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but didn’t factor into the decision. Griffin Jax got the win out of the bullpen, and Yusei Kikuchi had a rough outing for the Blue Jays, taking the loss.

Minnesota is 23-15 overall and trails the Guardians by just a half-game in the AL Central. The Twins have won three straight games, and they are 8-2 over their last 10 games, which includes taking the first game of this series vs. the Blue Jays. So far, they have gone 12-7 against other teams in the AL Central.

As the road team today, the Twins are 12-7 this season, and they have gone 11-8 at home. This year, the Twins have been really good as the favorite, putting up an 18-7 mark. As for their record as the underdog, they are 5-8 this year. Minnesota’s overall series record is 6-4-2, and they have won five straight series overall and two straight series on the road.

Minnesota’s run line record is 21-17 and they are 12-7 against the run line on the road. They have covered the run line in two straight games on the road and are 4-0 against the run line as an underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6 runs per game.

Minnesota’s over/under record for the season is 19-18, and the average over/under line in their games is 8 runs. The over/under line for today’s game against the Blue Jays is set at 7.5 runs. In their last game, the total runs scored was 5, which was under the line. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.9 runs.

Simeon Woods Richardson Gets The Start For The Twins

Simeon Woods Richardson and the Twins are on the road to take on the Blue Jays. He has been solid in his first two starts of the season, going 6 innings and giving up just 1 run in his first start, and then striking out 8 in 6 innings in his last outing. He has yet to give up a home run this season.

Twins Offense Breakdown

As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, they are 9th in the league in home runs and have the 3rd best Isolated Power (ISO) in the league. Minnesota’s team batting average is .239, and they have been pretty good at avoiding strikeouts this season.

Minnesota’s offense is led by Ryan Jeffers and Edouard Julien, who are 1st and 2nd on the team in home runs, respectively. Jeffers’ 29 RBIs are 5th in the league, and he is also 5th in the league with 8 homers. Willi Castro comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak and is batting .271 for the season.

With an overall record of 17-21, the Blue Jays are 8.5 games behind the Orioles for the AL East lead. So far, they are 5-5 in divisional games. Toronto will be looking to pick up a win today, as they lost the series opener vs. the Twins. This season, the Blue Jays are 13-10 as the favorite and 4-11 as the underdog.

At home, the Blue Jays are 8-8 this season compared to a 9-13 mark on the road. They have dropped three straight at home, and their overall series record is 4-6-2. Toronto has gone just 4-6 over their last 10 games overall.

The Blue Jays have been a solid run line bet overall this season, going 16-22, but they have struggled at home, going just 6-10. Their average run margin for the season is -1.2, and they have been outscored by an average of 1.1 runs per game at home. They have failed to cover the run line in their last four home games and are 5-10 as an underdog.

Despite the Blue Jays having an average combined run total of 8.3 runs per game, the over/under line for today’s game against the Twins is set at 7.5 runs. This is the second-lowest over/under line of the season for Toronto, with only one other game having a lower line. The Blue Jays have gone under the total in their last two games, and their over/under record for the season is 16-21.

Kevin Gausman Gets The Start For The Blue Jays

The Blue Jays will be starting Kevin Gausman today vs. the Twins, and he comes into the game with a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 3.78. Gausman has made seven starts this year and has turned in two quality starts. His most recent outing was a good one, as he went 5 1/3 innings vs. the Nationals, picking up the win and not giving up a run. In that outing, he finished with eight strikeouts. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts. Gausman’s ERA at home is 5.94 compared to 8.96 on the road.

Blue Jays Offense Breakdown

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So far this season, the Blue Jays offense is averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have also been one of the league’s worst home run-hitting teams, and their team batting average of .228 is 18th in the league. However, they do come into the game with a few hot hitters, as Isiah Kiner-Falefa is 8/20 in his last six games, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone 9/25 in his last six games.

Guerrero Jr. and Justin Turner are tied for the team lead with 16 RBIs, and both have four homers this season. Daulton Varsho is also a player to watch, as his six homers is 7th best in the league, and he is just 1/5 in his last five games. Kiner-Falefa also has a four-game hitting streak coming into today’s game.

Twins vs Blue Jays Prediction

Our prediction for today’s Twins vs. Blue Jays game is to take the over, with the line sitting at 7.5 runs. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Blue Jays, giving us a little bit of wiggle room with the over/under line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Kevin Gausman finishing with five strikeouts compared to Simeon Woods Richardson with just four. As for the Blue Jays and Twins’ lineups, the Blue Jays are projected to finish with nine hits compared to the Twins with nine.

If you’re looking for a money line pick, we would take the Blue Jays, but with a payout of -161, we prefer the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.