New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Prediction

MLB York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 10/5/2024

The New York Mets (89-73) travel to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies (95-67) on Saturday, October 5th. This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and televised on FOX. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. First pitch is set for 3:08 CT.

Mets vs. Phillies Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Phillies (-185)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 7 Runs
  • The Phillies have a strong home record with 54 wins and 27 losses, indicating a significant home-field advantage.
  • In their last 15 games, the Phillies have scored 9 or more runs in 4 games, showcasing their offensive potential.
  • The Phillies have won 3 out of their last 4 home games against the Mets, demonstrating recent success in head-to-head matchups at home.
  • The Phillies have a better overall record than the Mets, with 95 wins compared to the Mets’ 89 wins, indicating a stronger season performance.
  • The Phillies have a positive run differential in their last 15 games against the Mets, scoring 43 runs while allowing 36 runs.

Mets vs Phillies

new york mets nba

The Mets Are Coming Off A Win

Pete Alonso and the Mets are coming off a big 4-2 win over the Brewers to close out their series. Alonso got the Mets on the board with a homer in the 1st inning and went 1/4 with three RBIs. The Mets really broke things open with a four-run 9th inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Mets were the slight underdog at +106.

Jose Quintana started for the Mets, going six innings and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out five Brewers batters. Edwin Diaz closed things out in the 9th, picking up the save, and David Peterson got the win out of the bullpen.

As the Mets prepare to face the Phillies in game one of their NL Divisional Round series, New York will be on the road, where they posted a 43-38 record this season, compared to 46-35 at home. The Mets went 59-39 as favorites this year and 32-35 as underdogs.

New York finished the regular season with an 84-81 run line record, including 46-38 on the road. As underdogs, they went 39-28 against the run line. Their games averaged 9 runs this season, while today’s over/under is set at 7. The Mets’ over/under record is 83-77.

Kodai Senga Gets The Start For The Mets

Kodai Senga and the Mets are on the road to take on the Phillies. Senga picked up a win in his first start of the season, going 5 1/3 innings and striking out 9 batters. He did give up a couple of home runs, but overall, he had a strong outing.

Mets Offense Breakdown

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, as Alonso’s 34 homers are 10th in the league and Lindor is just behind him with 33. Lindor is also leading the team with 91 RBIs and is batting .273 for the season. Over his last seven games, Lindor is 8/26 with two homers. Alonso has gone deep in two of his past 10 games but is hitting just .240 for the season.

Brandon Nimmo comes into the game on a six-game hitting streak but is batting just .190 over his last 10 games. For the season, he is hitting .273. Over his last 10 games, Mark Vientos and Lindor have both gone deep twice, with Vientos batting .250 and Lindor at .308.

The Phillies Are Coming Off A Win

The Phillies’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Nationals, closing out their series with a 6-3 win. After allowing one run to the Nationals in the bottom of the first, the Phillies responded with two runs of their own. Philadelphia went on to add another two runs in the 5th inning.

Aaron Nola got the start for the Phillies, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on nine hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.

As the Phillies prepare to host the Mets in game one of their NL Divisional Round series, Philadelphia will look to build on their strong regular season record of 95-67. The Phillies were particularly impressive at home, where they went 54-27, compared to 41-40 on the road. As home favorites, they posted a 53-24 record this season.

Philadelphia’s games this season have averaged 9 runs, while today’s over/under line is set at 7 runs. The under has hit in five consecutive Phillies games, and their over/under record for the season stands at 78-75. Against the run line, Philadelphia went 78-84 this year.

Zack Wheeler Gets The Start For The Phillies

Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces his former team, the Mets. Wheeler has made 32 starts this year and has a record of 16-7 with an ERA of 2.56. So far, he has turned in 26 quality starts and has a WHIP of .95. Wheeler’s ERA at home is 2.56, and he is 10-3 at home compared to 6-4 on the road. In his last outing, Wheeler finished with a no-decision, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs, 11 strikeouts, and one homer. Before that, he had won three straight starts.

Phillies Offense Breakdown

philadelphia phillies

Philadelphia comes into the game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game (5th) and batting .257 as a team (4th). They have also been one of the league’s better home run-hitting teams, as their 198 homers is 7th in the MLB. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been the team’s top power threats, with Schwarber’s 38 homers leading the team and Harper’s 30 long balls coming in as the 2nd most on the team.

Harper has also been a strong run producer, as his 87 RBIs is 3rd on the team, while Schwarber’s 104 RBIs is the best mark in the league. Harper comes into the game with a team-leading on-base percentage of .373 and is batting .285 for the season. Over his last six games, Schwarber has gone just 5/23 with two homers.

Mets vs Phillies Prediction

Our favorite bet for today’s Mets vs. Phillies matchup is to take the over, as we see this game ending with a 5-3 win for the Phillies. With the line sitting at seven runs, we see there being some good value in taking the over, as the payout for a Phillies win on the money line is just -185.

Looking at today’s starters, we do have Zack Wheeler picking up fewer strikeouts than Kodai Senga, but Wheeler does have a better chance of picking up the win. In terms of today’s starters, we have Senga finishing with seven strikeouts and Wheeler with six.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.