New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB Betting Prediction

MLB York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 10/6/2024

The New York Mets (89-73) travel to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies (95-67) on Sunday, October 6th. This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and televised on FS1. The Mets are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Phillies are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Mets. First pitch is set for 3:08 CT.

Mets vs. Phillies Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Phillies (-154)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Under 7.5 Runs
  • The Phillies have a strong home record, with 54 wins and 27 losses at home, which is the best home record in the NL East.
  • In their last 15 games, the Phillies have scored 6 or more runs in 6 games, showcasing their offensive capability.
  • The Phillies have won 3 out of their last 4 home games against the Mets, indicating a favorable head-to-head matchup at home.
  • Philadelphia has a better overall league rank (2nd in the NL) compared to the Mets (6th in the NL), suggesting stronger overall performance.
  • The Phillies have a positive run differential in their last 15 games against the Mets, scoring 41 runs while allowing 42, indicating competitive games with a slight edge in scoring potential.

Mets vs Phillies

new york mets nba

New York picked up a 6-2 road win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Mets offense got off to a fast start, scoring five of their six runs in the 1st and 2nd innings. On the other side, the Phillies got on the board with one run in the 5th and added their final run in the 9th.

Kodai Senga only went two innings for the Mets but gave up just one run and one hit. Reed Garrett got the win out of the bullpen. Zack Wheeler had a good outing for the Phillies, going seven innings and giving up just one hit and no runs.

Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos each had two hits and an RBI for the Mets. Kyle Schwarber did the same for the Phillies.

Leading 1-0 in their series against the Phillies, the Mets are on the road for game two. New York finished the regular season with a 43-38 road record, while going 46-35 at home. As underdogs, they’ve won their last two games and hold a 33-35 record in that role this season.

New York’s run line record stands at 85-81, with a 47-38 mark on the road. They’ve covered the run line in their last two road games. As underdogs, they’re 40-28 against the run line. The Mets’ games have averaged 9 runs this season, while today’s over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. Their over/under record is 84-77.

Luis Severino Gets The Start For The Mets

Luis Severino will be looking to build off his last outing, where he faced the Brewers and picked up the win. In that start, he went six innings and gave up three earned runs. Looking back further, he has allowed at least three earned runs in three straight outings. Severino’s ERA for the season is 3.91, along with a record of 11-7. Out of his 31 starts, he has made 14 quality starts and is averaging 7.96 strikeouts per nine innings. So far, Severino has one complete game shutout this year. For the season, he has allowed 23 homers.

Mets Offense Breakdown

Heading into today’s game, the Mets are one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 7th in the MLB. They have been even better on the road, putting up 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, the Mets are 6th in home runs and have the league’s 8th best slugging percentage at .415. New York’s lineup has been pretty good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are 16th in the league in this category.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, with Lindor coming into the game with 33 homers and Alonso at 34. Lindor is batting .273 overall and went 6/25 with two homers over his last seven games. Lindor also leads the Mets with 91 RBIs. Currently, Brandon Nimmo is on a seven-game hitting streak.

As the Phillies prepare for game two of their series against the Mets, they find themselves needing a win to avoid falling behind 0-2. Philadelphia finished the regular season with a 95-67 record, including a strong 54-27 mark at home, compared to 41-40 on the road. As favorites, they went 82-50, while posting a 13-18 record as underdogs.

Philadelphia’s games this season have averaged 9 runs, while today’s over/under line sits at 7.5 runs. The Phillies’ over/under record is 79-75, and the over has hit in their last six games. Their run line record is 78-85.

Cristopher Sánchez Gets The Start For The Phillies

Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez finished with a no-decision in his last outing, going 4 2/3 innings vs. the Cubs. He gave up three earned runs on four hits in the outing. Before that, he had turned in three straight solid outings, giving up a combined two earned runs in 18 innings of work. Sánchez has a record of 11-9, an ERA of 3.32, and WHIP of 1.24. Opposing batters are hitting .250 off the left-hander this season. Sánchez has two complete games and one shutout to his name this year.

Phillies Offense Breakdown

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So far this season, the Phillies are one of the top offensive teams in the league, averaging 4.8 runs per game (5th) and batting a collective .257 (4th). They are also near the top of the league in home runs and have the 2nd best team on-base percentage in the league. At home, they are averaging 5 runs per game.

Over his last six games, Kyle Schwarber has gone just 5/23 at the plate, but two of those hits have been home runs. For the season, he is batting .248 and leads the Phillies with 38 home runs. Bryce Harper is 2nd on the team with 30 homers and has a batting average of .285.

Mets vs Phillies Prediction

There are a few ways you could look to play this Mets vs. Phillies matchup, but our top recommendation would be to take the Phillies on the money line at -154. We actually have the Phillies winning this one by a score of 4-3, giving us a little wiggle room if you wanted to take them on the run line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Luis Severino going six innings and finishing with five strikeouts. As for Cristopher Sanchez, we also have him going six innings and finishing with five strikeouts.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.