Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks NBA Betting Prediction

NBA City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction 5/18/2024

The Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) travel to face off against the Dallas Mavericks (50-32) on Saturday, May 18th. This game will be played at American Airlines Center in Dallas and televised on ABC. The Mavericks are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Thunder are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Thunder. Tip-off is set for 8:00 ET.

Thunder vs Mavericks

oklahoma city thunder nba

The Mavericks picked up a 104-92 win over the Thunder in the most recent game of this series. Dallas was a 4.5-point underdog heading into the game and easily covered the spread. The Mavericks held a 79-67 lead heading into the 4th quarter. The game also fell 17 points short of the over/under line of 213 points.

Luka Doncic had a monster game for the Mavericks, finishing with a triple-double while knocking down five threes. On the other side, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 30 points. The Thunder made just 10 threes in the game and shot 25% from beyond the arc.

Thunder Offense Breakdown

Oklahoma City comes into the game as the NBA’s 3rd ranked scoring offense, at 120.1 points per game. However, they have struggled to maintain that level of production recently, as they have scored below their season average in each of their last seven games. The Thunder’s scoring average on the road is 115.6 points per contest, which is 6th in the league.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been carrying the Thunder’s offense of late, averaging 31.4 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he shot 49.6% from the field. Over his last five games, Jalen Williams has averaged 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. The Thunder’s top three-point shooter is Luguentz Dort, who is averaging 10.9 points per game and 2 made threes per game.

Mavericks Offense Breakdown

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Dallas comes into the game as the NBA’s 8th-ranked scoring offense, at 117.9 points per game. They have been even better on their home floor, at 117.2 points per contest. The Mavericks are also near the top of the league in three-point attempts this season, averaging 39.5 attempts per contest.

Luka Doncic is probable for the Mavericks and is averaging 33.9 points per game this season. Over his last five games, he is averaging 23.8 points, 8.4 assists, and 10.6 rebounds. In this stretch, he hit 35% of his threes. P.J. Washington has hit 4.2 threes per game in his last five games, along with 19.4 points and 9 rebounds.

Thunder Team Defense

When it comes to defense, the Thunder have been one of the best units in the NBA this season. They are currently 9th in the league in points allowed per game at 111.2. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 5th in the league in points allowed at 103.8.

One area where they have excelled is in steals and blocked shots, where they are 1st in the NBA in both categories. They have also done a good job of defending the paint, ranking 2nd in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 51.8%.

When it comes to three-point shooting, opponents have been able to find some success against the Thunder, making 36.1% of their attempts from beyond the arc. However, they have done a good job of limiting three-point attempts, ranking 24th in the league in that category.

Mavericks Team Defense

On the season, the Mavericks are giving up 114.0 points per game, which is 17th in the NBA. At home, they are giving up 113.6 points per game, which is also 17th in the league.

Over their last five games, they have been even better on the defensive end, allowing just 104.0 points per game, which is 7th in the league during that stretch.

On the season, opposing teams are shooting 47.1% from the field against the Mavericks, which is 15th in the NBA. From three-point range, opponents are shooting 36.5%, which is 16th in the league.

Key Players For The Thunder And Mavericks

The outlook for today’s matchup points to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the primary point contributor for the Thunder, finishing with 30 points while maintaining a 11/20 shooting accuracy. For the season, he has been averaging 30.1 points per game, in addition to 5.5 rebounds.

As for Dallas, Luka Doncic is projected to be the primary scorer for the Mavericks. Our forecast has him finishing the game with 33, and adding 9 rebounds. Throughout the season, he has maintained a 48.7% field goal shooting rate and is averaging 33.9 points per game.

Thunder vs Mavericks Trends

  • Across their last three road contests, Oklahoma City has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 99 points per game.
  • Across their last five home contests, Dallas has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 107 points per game.
  • Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Oklahoma City has an ATS mark of 3-7 while going 3-7 straight up.
  • Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Dallas has an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 6-4 straight up.

Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction

As the underdogs with a spread of +3.5, we recommend going with the Thunder on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 208.5 and our model has the Thunder and Mavericks finishing with a combined 229 points. Our pick is to take the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.