Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Prediction

NBA City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction 10/24/2024

The Thunder are on the road to face the Denver Nuggets, with both team’s playing their first-game of the season. Tip-off for this season-opener, is set for 10:00 at Ball Arena.

Thunder vs Nuggets

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The Thunder Are Looking To Start Their Season With A Win

Ranked 9th in our pre-season power rankings, the Thunder enter the season with a 95.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 55.7% chance of winning the Northwest Division. Last season, they finished 57-25, placing 1st in both the Western Conference and their division. At home, they posted a 33-8 record, winning by an average of 13.0 points per game. On the road, they went 24-17 with a +1.9 scoring margin.

Oklahoma City was 45-37 against the spread and had a 44-37-1 over/under record, with their games averaging 232.8 points. As the favorite, they went 47-14, covering the spread in 35 of those games. When listed as the underdog, they had a 10-11 record.

The Nuggets Are Looking To Start Their Season With A Win

The Nuggets finished last season 57-25, placing 2nd in the Western Conference. They were dominant at home, going 33-8 with a +9.8 scoring margin, but were just 24-17 on the road. Heading into this season, they are 5th in our power rankings and have an 84.2% chance of making the playoffs, with a 22.3% chance of winning their division.

Last season, Denver was favored in 72 games, going 33-37 ATS in those matchups. They had a 21-19 home ATS record and were 16-24 on the road. Their average O/U line was 225.7 points, and their games averaged 224.5 points per game. They finished the season with a 34-46-2 O/U record.

Thunder Offense Breakdown

The Thunder enter the season ranked 8th in our offensive power rankings, coming off a campaign where they averaged 120.1 points per game, 3rd in the league. They were 7th in possessions per game (99.7) and 15th in field goal attempts (89.3), but they were efficient, ranking 2nd in field goal percentage (49.9%). They also led the league in three-point percentage (38.9%), making 13.3 threes per game (8th) on 34.2 attempts (16th). Oklahoma City was 4th in free throw percentage (82.5%) and averaged 21.5 attempts per game (17th). However, they struggled on the offensive glass, finishing 29th with 8.8 offensive rebounds per game.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds last season, is projected to lead the team in scoring and is ranked 1st among point guards. Chet Holmgren is projected 3rd on the team in points and 3rd among centers in three-pointers made. Luguentz Dort is projected to lead the team in threes, while Alex Caruso, acquired from the Bulls, is projected 5th in scoring for the Thunder.

Nuggets Offense Breakdown

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Denver enters the season ranked 6th in our offensive power rankings after finishing 14th in points per game (114.9) last season. The Nuggets were 28th in possessions per game (96.2), but they were efficient, ranking 4th in field goal percentage (49.6%). They were 30th in three-point attempts per game (31.2), making 11.7 per game (25th) at a 37.4% clip (9th). Denver also ranked 29th in free throw attempts per game (19.9), making 76.2% (25th).

Nikola Jokic leads our projections, ranking 5th in points per game. He’s also projected to be 8th among centers in three-pointers made. Jamal Murray is projected to be 34th in points per game and 30th in three-pointers made. Michael Porter Jr. is projected to lead the team in three-pointers, ranking 18th in the league. Russell Westbrook, a key offseason addition, is projected to be 5th on the team in scoring.

Thunder Team Defense

We have the Thunder ranked 11th in our defensive power rankings, after they allowed 112.7 points per game last season, which was 11th in the NBA. They held opponents to 45.6% shooting, the fourth-lowest mark in the league, and were 15th in three-point defense, allowing 36.4% shooting.

Oklahoma City was second in blocked shots, with Chet Holmgren projected as one of the top shot-blockers in the NBA. They also ranked 12th in rebounding, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander contributing, and finished second in steals, averaging 8.5 per game.

Nuggets Team Defense

Oklahoma City enters the season ranked 11th in our defensive power rankings, after allowing 112.7 points per game last year, which was also 11th in the NBA. They held opponents to 45.6% shooting, the fourth-lowest mark in the league, and were 15th in three-point defense, allowing 36.4% shooting from beyond the arc. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the top rebounders among point guards, while Chet Holmgren is projected to be their leading shot-blocker. However, Isaiah Hartenstein, another key rebounder and shot-blocker, is currently out.

Last season, the Thunder ranked second in blocked shots, averaging 6.6 per game, and were 12th in defensive rebounding. They also finished second in steals, with 8.5 per game. Opponents shot 52.1% inside the arc against them, the fourth-lowest percentage in the NBA, and they ranked fifth in effective field-goal percentage allowed.

Thunder vs Nuggets Trends

  • Oklahoma City has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 104 points per game while allowing 98. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
  • Across their last five home contests, Denver has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 104 points per game.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Thunder have a straight up record of 3-7. But, their mark vs the spread was just 4-6.
  • Going back to their previous five games as the favorite, Denver has an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 2-3 straight up.

Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction

The Thunder come in as the underdog at +2.5, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 225.5 and our model has the Thunder and Nuggets finishing with a combined 243 points. Our pick is to take the over.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.