Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Prediction 1/17/2025

The Denver Nuggets (24-16) travel to face off against the Miami Heat (20-19) on Friday, January 17th. This game will be played at Kaseya Center in Miami and televised on ALT. Both the Nuggets and Heat will be looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. Tip off is scheduled for 8:00 ET.

Nuggets vs Heat

denver nuggets nba

The Nuggets Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Nuggets fell to 24-16 on the season after a 128-108 home loss to the Rockets on Wednesday. Denver entered the game as +5.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 236 points exceeded the O/U line of 224.5 by 11.5 points.

Denver struggled early, getting outscored 41-25 in the 2nd quarter. They played the Rockets evenly in the 3rd (33-33) and outscored them 27-26 in the 4th, but they couldn’t overcome a 102-81 deficit heading into the final period.

The Heat Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Heat fell to 20-19 on the season after a 117-108 road loss to the Lakers on Wednesday. Miami, who entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 225 points exceeded the O/U line of 214.5 by 10.5 points.

Miami appeared to be in control after a 10-0 run in the 2nd quarter and led 66-54 at halftime. However, the Lakers outscored the Heat 29-19 in the 3rd quarter and 34-23 in the 4th, turning the game around and handing Miami the loss.

Nuggets Offense Breakdown

In Wednesday’s loss to the Rockets, the Nuggets shot 53.3% from the field and connected on 14 threes at a 48.3% clip. Christian Braun and Jamal Murray led Denver with 22 points each, with Braun hitting 90.9% of his shots.

Both Braun and Murray scored 9 points in the 3rd quarter, while Russell Westbrook added 5 of his 17 points in the period. Westbrook also made 3 threes, shooting 60% from beyond the arc.

Heat Offense Breakdown

miami heat

Tyler Herro connected on 7 threes at 58.3% efficiency, finishing with 34 points and 4 rebounds in the Heat’s loss to the Lakers. He shot 66.7% from the field, with 16 points in the 1st quarter.

Miami hit 16 threes at 44.4%, shooting 53.4% overall. Haywood Highsmith and Nikola Jovic each added 12 points, with Jovic also contributing 8 assists.

Nuggets Team Defense

The Nuggets struggled defensively against the Rockets, allowing 128 points on 52% shooting. Their toughest stretch came in the 2nd quarter, where they gave up 41 points. Denver did manage to hold Houston to 26 points in the 4th quarter, but it wasn’t enough to turn the game around.

From beyond the arc, the Rockets hit 17 threes at a 44% clip. Denver also sent Houston to the line 17 times, where they made 13 free throws. The Nuggets finished with 4 steals and 7 blocks.

Heat Team Defense

The Nuggets struggled defensively in their game against the Rockets, giving up 128 points on 52% shooting. Their toughest stretch came in the 2nd quarter, where they allowed 41 points. Denver’s defense tightened up in the 4th, holding Houston to 26 points, but the damage was already done.

From beyond the arc, the Rockets hit 17 threes at a 44% clip. Denver sent Houston to the line 17 times, where they made 13 free throws. The Nuggets finished with 27 defensive rebounds, but they allowed 14 offensive boards while recording 4 steals and 7 blocks.

Nuggets vs Heat Trends

  • Across their ten previous road games, Denver has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 7-3 while averaging 122 points per game.
  • Although Miami has a straight up record of 3-2 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs. the spread going 2-3. The team averaged 107 points per game in these games.
  • As the betting underdog, the Nuggets have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Denver posted a straight up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.
  • Through their previous three contests as the betting favorite, the Heat have a strong record of 2-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is 1-2.

Nuggets vs Heat Prediction

As the underdogs with a spread of +1.5, we recommend going with the Nuggets on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 225.5 and given that our model is projecting 259 points between the teams, we like the over.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.