Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Prediction 3/13/2024

The Denver Nuggets (45-20) travel to face off against the Miami Heat (35-29) on Wednesday, March 13th. This game will be played at Kaseya Center in Miami and televised on ESPN. The Nuggets are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Heat are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Raptors. Tip-off is set for 7:30 ET.

Nuggets vs Heat

denver nuggets nba

The Nuggets Are Coming Off A Win

The Nuggets clinched a 125-119 win over the Raptors in their previous game. Going into the game, the Nuggets were favored by -17 and their 6 point win was not enough to cover the spread. The over/under line entering this matchup was 231 points, and both teams achieved a total score that exceeded that line.

Today, the Nuggets take on the Heat with a record above .500 of 45-20. On the road this season, the Nuggets are 18-14 compared to 27-6 at home.

Denver comes in with an overall ATS record of 29-34 so far this season. During this season, Denver has a 24-29 record against the spread as favorites and 5-5 as underdogs.

The Heat Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Heat will look to bounce back from a defeat in their last game, losing to the Wizards with a final score of 110-108. The Heat not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread as -11.5 point favorites. Regarding the over/under, the combined score of 218 points ended up below the over/under line of 228.5.

With an overall record of 35-29, the Heat are in 8th place in the Eastern Conference and are 2nd in the Southeast Division. Ahead of their game against the Nuggets, they are looking to end a three game losing streak.

Miami comes in with an overall ATS record of 30-31 so far this season. In their last three games as favorites, the Heat have not been able to cover the spread, and they are 15-13 against the spread when they are underdogs.

Nuggets Offense Breakdown

Through 65 games the Nuggets are averaging 115 points per contest, placing them 15th in the NBA.

This season, the Nuggets are averaging 115 points per game, which is 15th in the NBA. On the road, they are scoring 111 points per game.

So far, the Nuggets have outscored the NBA scoring average in 49.2% of their games. In terms of field goal percentage, Denver is 4th in the league at 49%.

One area where the Nuggets are struggling is at the free-throw line. They are 29th in both free throws made and attempted per game.

Heat Offense Breakdown

miami heat

In 64 games games, Miami has an average of 110.5 points per game (27th).

At home, the Heat are averaging 113.5 points per game, which is 22nd in the league. Overall, they are 27th in scoring at 110.5 points per game. Miami has outscored the NBA scoring average in just 39.1% of their games this season.

When it comes to pace, the Heat are 29th in the league at 96.1 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, Miami is 21st in the league at 46%. However, they are 6th in three-point shooting at 37%.

So far this season, the Heat have made an average of 12.4 three-pointers per game, which is 17th in the NBA. In terms of free throws, Miami is 7th in the league at 18.5 made free throws per game.

Nuggets Team Defense

Although the Nuggets’ defense is 7th in the league defensively this season, over their last three games they have allowed 116.3 points per contest, which is 29th in the NBA. In the terms of takeaways, Nuggets are causing 11.8 turnovers per game, ranking 5th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 11th in rejections, averaging 5.6 blocked shots each game.

Heat Team Defense

At this time, the Heat’s defense is positioned 6th in the NBA, permitting 109.9 points per game. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Heat squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 55.2% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 36.3% from downtown.

Key Players For The Nuggets And Heat

Our projections for today’s game indicate that Nikola Jokic will be the primary scorer for the Nuggets, with 26 points and going 10/18 from the field. This season, he is averaging 26.2 points per game along with 12.3 boards.

As for Miami, Terry Rozier is projected to be the primary scorer for the Heat. Our forecast has him finishing the game with 20, and adding 4 rebounds. Throughout the season, he has maintained a 44.5% field goal shooting rate and is averaging 20.2 points per game.

Nuggets vs Heat Trends

  • Through their last ten road games, Denver has an ATS record of just 5-4-1. However, their overall record was 6-4 while averaging 109 points per game.
  • Through their last ten home contests, the Heat offense has averaged 108 points per game while allowing an average of 105. Miami posted an overall record of 6-4 while going 7-2-1 ATS.
  • Through their last three games as the betting underdog, the Heat have a strong record vs the spread going 2-1. Their straight up mark in these contests is 0-3.
  • Over the team’s last three games as the favorite, the Nuggets struggled vs the spread going just 1-2. However, they still had a straight up mark of 2-1.

Nuggets vs Heat Prediction

The Heat come in as the underdog at +5, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 214.5, and our model projects the Nuggets and Heat to reach a combined total of 224 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.