Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction 3/7/2024

The Miami Heat (35-26) travel to face off against the Dallas Mavericks (34-28) on Thursday, March 7th. This game will be played at American Airlines Center in Dallas and televised on TNT. The Heat are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mavericks are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Pistons. Tip-off is set for 7:30 ET.

Heat vs Mavericks

miami heat nba

The Heat Are Coming Off A Win

Most recently, the Heat bested the Pistons with a score of 118-110. Going into the game, the Heat were favored by -11 and their 8 point win was not enough to cover the spread. The over/under line entering this matchup was 217.5 points, and both teams achieved a total score that exceeded that line.

With a record of 35-26, the Heat are above .500 as they prepare to face the Mavericks. Currently, the team is in 6th place in the Eastern Conference and is 2nd in the Southeast division.

Miami has an ATS record of 29-29 for this season, which includes their current two game losing streak against the spread. Miami has not been good vs. the spread in their last two home games, and they are 12-18 ATS at home compared to 17-11 on the road.

The Mavericks Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Dallas’ most recently played the Pacers and lost with a final score of 137-120. In addition, to losing the game straight-up, the Mavericks lost vs. the spread as -5.5 point favorites. The over/under line for this matchup was set at 247.5 points, and the teams managed to exceed that total.

Heading into their matchup with the Heat, the Mavericks are 34-28 on the season and are hoping to end a three game skid. In the Western Conference, the Mavericks are 8th and are 2nd in the Southwest division.

This season, Dallas holds an ATS record of 32-30, which also includes their three game losing streak against the spread. The Mavericks maintain an ATS record of 18-11 on the road, while they have a 14-19 record vs. the spread when playing at home.

Heat Offense Breakdown

In 61 games games, Miami has an average of 110.8 points per game (27th).

So far this season, the Heat are averaging 110.8 points per game, which is 27th in the NBA. On the road, they are scoring 107.9 points per game. In terms of their pace, Miami is 29th in the league at 96.2 possessions per game.

When it comes to shooting, the Heat are 23rd in field goal percentage at 46%. From beyond the arc, they are hitting 37% of their shots, which is 7th in the NBA. In terms of free throws, Miami is 12th in attempts and 7th in makes at 18.8 per game.

So far this season, the Heat have outscored the NBA scoring average in just 36.1% of their games. When it comes to assists, Miami is 20th in the league at 26 per game. In terms of offensive rebounds, they are 25th in the NBA.

Mavericks Offense Breakdown

dallas mavericks

Leading up to today’s matchup, the Mavericks are one of the NBA’s top offenses, averaging 118.7 points per game (6th).

This season, the Mavericks are 6th in the NBA in scoring at 118.7 points per game. At home, they are averaging 120.3 points per game, which is 8th in the league. On the year, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 59.7% of their games.

Dallas is one of the top three-point shooting teams in the NBA, making 14.9 threes per game (3rd). However, they are just 11th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%. In terms of field goal percentage, the Mavericks are 12th at 48%.

When it comes to two-point shooting, Dallas is 7th in the league at 56%. They are also 12th in pace at 99.7 possessions per game. In terms of assists, the Mavericks are 22nd in the NBA.

Heat Team Defense

Coming into the game, the Heat defense has held opposing team’s to fewer points than the league average in 24.6% of their games. Currently, they are 6th in the NBA at 109.9 points per game allowed. Opponents are hitting 55.2% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 36.3% of their three-point attempts.

Mavericks Team Defense

On average, the Dallas defense is giving up 118.3 points per game (24th). Right now, they are on a 3 game streak of giving up fewer points than their season average. The Dallas defense has allowed opponents to shoot 37.0% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 48.5% of their field goal attempts vs. Dallas.

Key Players For The Heat And Mavericks

For today’s matchup, we project Terry Rozier to lead the scoring for the Heat, putting up 20 points and shooting at a rate of 7/16. During this season, he is delivering an average of 20.2 points per game, along with 4 rebounds.

On the opposing side, we anticipate Luka Doncic to be the top scorer for the Mavericks. Our projection has him finishing the game with 34, and he is expected to secure 9 rebounds. Throughout the season, he has maintained a 49.6% field goal shooting rate and is averaging 34.6 points per game.

Heat vs Mavericks Trends

  • The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last road games and 4-1 straight-up.
  • Dallas has a 2-3 record in their last five home games. In this stretch, they averaged 119 points per game while allowing 125. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
  • Miami has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.
  • The last three games that Dallas was favored, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.

Heat vs Mavericks Prediction

For a point-spread bet in this Heat vs. Mavericks matchup, we’re leaning towards the Heat at +4.5. Although our projections show the Mavericks winning 118-115, we suggest placing your bet on the Heat for the point-spread.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 231.5 and given that our model is projecting 233 points between the teams, we like the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.