Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Prediction 11/17/2024

The Miami Heat (5-6) travel to face off against the Indiana Pacers (5-7) on Sunday, November 17th. This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis and televised on FDSI. The Heat are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Pacers are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Pacers. Tip-off is set for 5:00 ET.

Heat vs Pacers

miami heat nba

The Heat Are Coming Off A Win

Miami improved to 5-6 on the season with a 124-111 road win over the Pacers on Friday. The Heat, who entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs, not only won but covered the spread. The total score of 235 points exceeded the pre-game O/U line of 228.5 by 6.5 points.

After trailing 29-26 at the end of the 1st quarter, Miami went on a 10-0 run to close the gap from 77-64 to 77-74. They took control by outscoring Indiana 35-26 in the 2nd quarter and 37-30 in the 3rd, entering the 4th with a 98-85 lead. The teams played evenly in the final quarter, each scoring 26 points.

The Pacers Are Coming Off A Win

The Pacers fell to 5-7 on the season after a 124-111 home loss to the Heat on Friday. Indiana, favored by 4.5 points, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game hit 235, exceeding the O/U line of 228.5 by 6.5 points.

Indiana led 29-26 after the 1st quarter, but a 35-26 2nd quarter in favor of Miami shifted momentum. The Heat went on a 10-0 run, cutting the score from 77-64 to 77-74, and outscored the Pacers 37-30 in the 3rd quarter. Both teams scored 26 points in the 4th, but the Pacers couldn’t close the gap.

Heat Offense Breakdown

The Heat shot 51.7% from the field in their win over the Pacers, connecting on 15 threes at a 35.7% clip. Bam Adebayo led the way with 30 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists, hitting 58.8% of his shots and 2 threes at 66.7%.

Kevin Love added 15 points, all in the 3rd quarter, and made 3 threes at 75% shooting. Adebayo scored 16 points in the 4th quarter, while Tyler Herro finished with 20 points despite shooting 22.2% from deep.

Pacers Offense Breakdown

indiana pacers

Obi Toppin led the Pacers with 21 points, shooting 80% from the field and hitting 3 threes at 60% efficiency in their loss to the Heat. Tyrese Haliburton added 18 points, connecting on 4 threes at 44.4%, and dished out 8 assists.

As a team, the Pacers shot 51.2% from the field and made 14 threes at a 40% rate. T.J. McConnell contributed 14 points, while Pascal Siakam scored 10 of his 14 points in the 2nd quarter.

Heat Team Defense

Even with a shaky defensive performance, allowing the Pacers to shoot 51% from the field, the Heat managed to secure a win. They gave up 29 points in the 1st quarter and 30 in the 3rd but tightened up in the 2nd and 4th, allowing just 26 points in each.

From beyond the arc, the Pacers hit 14 threes at a 40% clip. The Heat sent Indiana to the line 11 times, where they made 9 free throws. Miami finished with 32 defensive rebounds, giving up 8 offensive boards, while also recording 16 steals.

Pacers Team Defense

Even with a tough shooting night defensively, the Heat managed to hold the Pacers to 111 points, giving up 29 in the 1st and 30 in the 3rd. They tightened up in the 2nd and 4th quarters, allowing 26 points in each.

Miami sent Indiana to the line just 11 times, where they hit 9 free throws. The Heat also recorded 16 steals and gave up 14 threes on 40% shooting.

Heat vs Pacers Trends

  • Across their last three road contests, Miami has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 113 points per game.
  • In their last ten games at home, the Pacers have a straight up record of 3-7 while going 5-5 vs. the spread. The team averaged 112 points per game in this stretch.
  • In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Heat have a straight up record of 2-3 and an ATS mark of 3-2.
  • Going back to their last five games as the favorite, the Pacers have a straight up record of 1-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-4.

Heat vs Pacers Prediction

Coming in as the underdogs at +2.5, we have the Heat as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 229, and our model projects the Heat and Pacers to reach a combined total of 255 points. Our bet is on taking the over.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.