Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns NBA Betting prediction

NBA Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Prediction 1/5/2024

The Miami Heat (20-14) travel to face off against the Phoenix Suns (18-16) on Friday, January 5th. This game will be played at Footprint Center. The Heat are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Suns are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Lakers. Tip-off is set for 9:00 ET.

Heat vs Suns

The Heat Are Coming Off A Win

In their last game, the Heat defeated the Lakers with a final score of 110-96. Prior to the game, the Heat were the underdog at +5, earning both a straight-up and ATS victory. In terms of the over/under, the combined 206 points was below the over/under line of 229.

With a 20-14 record, the Heat are above .500 as they prepare for today’s game vs. the Suns. In Eastern Conference games, the Heat are 15-10 and in non-conference matchups, they are 5-4.

Miami currently has an ATS record below .500, sitting at 16-17 at this point. This season, Miami has a 8-10 record against the spread when they are the favorites, and they are 8-7 as underdogs.

The Suns Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Suns’ most recent game versus the Clippers saw Devin Booker lead the Suns with 35 points while shooting 11/15 from the field. Bradley Beal finished 2nd on the team with 21 points, but Phoenix ended the game with a 131-122 loss.

When playing Western Conference teams, the Suns are 12-12 and are 6-4 in non-conference games. Overall, the Suns are 18-16 and are 2-1 in their last three games.

Phoenix’s ATS record is currently below .500 at 12-22 for the season. The Suns have suffered two consecutive ATS losses when playing as underdogs, and they are 8-16 against the spread when they are the favorites.

Heat Offense Breakdown

This season, the Miami offense is ranked 23rd in the NBA in scoring at 112.9 points per game. When looking at the team’s pace of play, the Heat are currently below the league average in possessions per game, averaging just 96.9 per contest. Not only is the team one of the more deliberate units in the NBA, they have yet to find their shooting stroke, ranking just 19th in the league in field goal percentage 19th%.

Suns Offense Breakdown

In 34 games games, Phoenix has an average of 115.4 points per game (14th). Coming into today’s game, the Suns will be looking to improve their 3-point shooting numbers, as they are averaging just 11.8 made 3’s per game. If the Phoenix offense is going to turn things around, not only do they need to improve their outside shooting but they must do a better job protecting the ball. Currently, they are averaging 14.2 turnovers per game.

Heat Team Defense

At this time, the Heat’s defense is positioned 6th in the NBA, permitting 111.5 points per game. For the season, Miami is ranked 23rd in fewest fouls per game. Team’s are averaging 20.8 free-throws per game vs. the Heat and have an overall field goal percentage of 48.0%.

Suns Team Defense

On the defensive side, Suns is currently hovering around the NBA’s average for points allowed, conceding an average of 114.1 points per game. Phoenix’s defense is currently forcing 14.2 turnovers per game, which is 23rd in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 5th in blocked shots, with an average of 6.4 rejections per game.

Key Players For The Heat And Suns

In today’s game, our projections have Tyler Herro leading the Heat with 20 points on 8/16 shooting from the field. Throughout this season, his average stands at 23.2 points per game, along with 5.6 rebounds.

As for Phoenix, Kevin Durant is projected to be the primary scorer for the Suns. Our forecast has him finishing the game with 28, and adding 7 rebounds. Throughout the season, he has maintained a 52.5% field goal shooting rate and is averaging 29.9 points per game.

Heat vs Suns Trends

  • When looking at their past ten road matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 6-4 while averaging 110 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
  • Although Phoenix has a straight up record of 1-4 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-4. The team averaged 109 points per game in these games.
  • As the betting underdog, the Heat have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 3-2.
  • In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Suns have a straight up record of 6-4 and an ATS mark of 2-8.

Heat vs Suns Prediction

Entering the game as underdogs with a spread of +3.5, the Heat is our point spread pick. Our projections not only see them covering the spread but also indicate a solid chance of an outright victory. This is a good choice for those looking for a higher moneyline payout.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 229.5 and given that our model is projecting 229 points between the teams, we like the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.