Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction 5/16/2024

The Denver Nuggets (57-25) travel to face off against the Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) on Thursday, May 16th. This game will be played at Target Center in Minneapolis and televised on ESPN. The Nuggets are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Timberwolves are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Timberwolves. Tip-off is set for 8:30 ET.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves

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Denver picked up a 112-97 win in the most recent game of this Timberwolves vs. Nuggets series. The Nuggets were favored by 4.5 points heading into the game and easily covered the spread. Denver outscored the Timberwolves in each quarter, and they really took control of the game by outscoring Minnesota 38-30 in the 3rd. The 209 combined points surpassed the over/under line of 206 points.

Nikola Jokic had a huge game for the Nuggets, finishing with 40 points, 13 assists, and seven rebounds. He also shot 66.7% from three-point range. Denver’s defense held the Timberwolves to just 30.8% shooting from three-point range. As a team, the Nuggets shot 55% from the field, and they hit just nine threes.

Nuggets Offense Breakdown

Denver is currently 15th in the NBA in scoring at 114.9 points per game. Their production has been better at home, as they have averaged 116.4 points per game compared to 111.4 on the road. The Nuggets are near the bottom of the league in pace, averaging 96.2 possessions per contest. Despite being last in the league in three-point attempts, the Nuggets are 4th in field goal percentage, at 49%.

Over his last five games, Nikola Jokic is averaging 29.4 points per game on 53.8% shooting. In these games, he also averaged 10.4 rebounds and 9.2 assists. Aaron Gordon is averaging 17.4 points per game in his last five games while hitting 61.5% of his threes. Jamal Murray is questionable with a calf injury and has averaged 16.8 points per game in his last five games.

Timberwolves Offense Breakdown

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Minnesota comes into the game ranked 18th in scoring at 113 points per game. Their production has been a bit worse at home, with an average of 111.4 points per contest. The Timberwolves are also a below-average team in terms of pace, averaging 97 possessions per contest.

Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offense of late, averaging 30.2 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he shot 56.4% from the field. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 19.4 points in his last five games while hitting 52.2% of his threes.

Nuggets Team Defense

When it comes to defense, the Denver Nuggets have been one of the best units in the NBA this season. They are currently 6th in the league in points allowed per game at 109.0.

Denver has been especially tough on opposing three-point shooters, as they are 2nd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.1%. On the season, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average in 79.3% of games vs. the Nuggets.

Over their last five games, the Denver defense has been even better, ranking 3rd in points allowed at 101.2. During that stretch, they have been able to limit opposing offenses to just 36.1% shooting from beyond the arc.

Timberwolves Team Defense

When it comes to defense, the Timberwolves have been one of the best units in the league this season. They are currently ranked 1st in the NBA in points allowed per game at 106.3. This number has been even better at home, where they are giving up just 103.8 points per contest. Over their last five games, Minnesota has been the 7th best defense in the NBA at 104.6 points per game.

Opposing teams have struggled to find their offensive rhythm against the Timberwolves. In fact, in 80.5% of their games this season, opponents have scored less than their season average. Additionally, teams have made fewer threes than their season average in 78.0% of their games against Minnesota.

One area where the Timberwolves have been especially strong is defending the paint. They are currently 1st in the NBA in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 50.9%. Overall, Minnesota is 6th in blocked shots and 8th in steals per game.

Key Players For The Nuggets And Timberwolves

Our projections for today’s game indicate that Nikola Jokic will be the primary scorer for the Nuggets, with 27 points and going 11/18 from the field. During this season, he is delivering an average of 26.4 points per game, along with 12.4 rebounds.

On the flip side, our predictions place Anthony Edwards as the leading scorer for the Timberwolves. We expect him to conclude the game with a team-high 26 while also collecting 6 rebounds. This season, he is shooting at a field goal percentage of 46.1%, and his scoring average is 25.9 points per game.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Trends

  • Although Denver has a straight up record of 7-3 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-5. The team averaged 113 points per game in these games.
  • Across their last three home contests, Minnesota has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 103 points per game.
  • In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.
  • As the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Minnesota posted a straight up mark of 2-3 in these matchups.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction

We’re putting our money on the Timberwolves to win, and have the projected score sitting at 114-111. We also like them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to bet on the Timberwolves at -2.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 203.5 and given that our model is projecting 225 points between the teams, we like the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.