Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 3/10/2025

The Denver Nuggets (41-23) travel to face off against the Oklahoma City Thunder (53-11) on Monday, March 10th. This game will be played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and televised on NBA. The Thunder are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Nuggets are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Nuggets. Tip-off is set for 8:00 ET.

Nuggets vs Thunder

denver nuggets nba

The Nuggets Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Nuggets fell to 41-23 on the season after a 127-103 road loss to the Thunder on Sunday. Denver, who entered the game as +7.5 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread. The total score of 230 points fell short of the 242.5-point O/U line.

Denver started strong with a 10-0 run, but the Thunder chipped away at the lead. After trailing 86-83 going into the 4th quarter, the Nuggets were outscored 41-20 in the final period.

The Thunder Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Thunder improved to 53-11 on the season with a 127-103 win over the Nuggets on Sunday. Oklahoma City, favored by 7.5 points, covered the spread with the 24-point victory. The game’s total of 230 points fell short of the 242.5-point over/under line.

After Denver’s 10-0 run early in the game, the Thunder took control, outscoring the Nuggets in each quarter. They closed out the game strong, holding Denver to just 20 points in the 4th while scoring 41 of their own.

Nuggets Offense Breakdown

In their 127-103 loss to the Thunder, the Nuggets struggled offensively, shooting just 41.2% from the field and 30% from three-point range, making 12 threes overall. Michael Porter Jr. and Nikola Jokić each scored 24 points, with Porter adding 15 rebounds and hitting 3 threes at 37.5% efficiency.

Christian Braun contributed 19 points, knocking down 3 threes at a 60% clip. Jokić scored 14 of his points in the first quarter, while Porter added 10 in the second. Braun also had a strong second quarter, scoring 13 of his 19 points in that period.

Thunder Offense Breakdown

oklahoma city thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder to a 127-103 win over the Nuggets, scoring 40 points and adding 8 rebounds and 5 assists. He shot 46.9% from the field, though he struggled from three, hitting just 18.2% of his attempts. Jalen Williams contributed 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists, shooting 50% from the field and making 2 threes at a 50% clip.

As a team, the Thunder shot 48.9% from the field, making 13 threes at a 34.2% rate. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 12 points in the 1st quarter and 11 more in the 3rd, while Williams added 13 points in the 4th quarter alone.

Nuggets Team Defense

Defensively, the Nuggets struggled in the 4th quarter, giving up 41 points, which contributed to their 127-103 loss to the Thunder. They allowed 33 points in the 2nd quarter but managed to hold Oklahoma City to 25 points in the 3rd. Overall, Denver gave up 127 points on 48% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Nuggets allowed the Thunder to hit 13 threes on 34% shooting. They also sent Oklahoma City to the free-throw line 25 times, where the Thunder converted 22 attempts. Denver finished with 34 defensive rebounds, allowing 10 offensive boards, and recorded 3 steals and 6 blocks.

Thunder Team Defense

Defensively, the Nuggets struggled in the 4th quarter, giving up 41 points, which contributed to their 127-103 loss to the Thunder. Overall, they allowed 127 points, with Oklahoma City shooting 48% from the field.

From beyond the arc, Denver held the Thunder to 34% shooting, with 13 made threes. The Nuggets sent Oklahoma City to the line 25 times, where they hit 22 free throws. Denver finished with 34 defensive rebounds, allowing 10 offensive boards, and recorded 3 steals and 6 blocks.

Nuggets vs Thunder Trends

  • In their last three games away from home, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 113 points per game in this stretch.
  • In their last five home games, Oklahoma City has averaged 132 points per game while allowing 119. The team’s record in this stretch was 5-0 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
  • Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 1-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-4.
  • Oklahoma City has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction

The Thunder is our pick to not only win with a projected score of 139-123. But we also favor them to cover the spread. Our bet is on the Thunder at -9.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 238.5, and our model projects the Nuggets and Thunder to reach a combined total of 262 points. Our bet is on taking the over.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.