Oklahoma City-Denver NBA Prediction

NBA Oklahoma City vs Denver Nuggets Prediction 12/29/2023

The Oklahoma City Thunder (20-9) travel to face off against the Denver Nuggets (23-10) on Friday, December 29th. This game will be played at Ball Arena. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 9:00 ET.

Thunder vs Nuggets

The Thunder Are Coming Off A Win

In their most recent game, the Thunder took down the Knicks by a score of 129-120. the Thunder not only secured a victory straight-up but also did so while covering the spread as -3.5-point favorites. The over/under line for this matchup was set at 242 points, and the teams managed to exceed that total.

Coming into today’s game vs. the Nuggets, the Thunder are 20-9 and have a record above .500. In the Western Conference, they are in 3rd place and are also 3rd in the Northwest division.

Currently, Oklahoma City holds an above .500 ATS record of 21-8 so far this year. On the road, the Thunder have an ATS record of 9-3, as opposed to a 12-5 record against the spread when playing at home.

The Nuggets Are Coming Off A Win

In their last game, the Nuggets defeated the Grizzlies with a final score of 142-105. In addition to their straight-up win, the Nuggets also covered the spread as -9.5-point favorites. The over/under line heading into this matchup was 221.5 points in which the two teams surpassed.

Coming into today’s matchup vs. the Thunder, the Nuggets are looking to stay above .500. So far, they are 23-10 overall. In Western Conference play, the Nuggets are 15-8 and they are 8-2 against non-conference opponents.

Denver’s ATS record is currently below .500 at 15-17 for the season. In their last two games as underdogs, the Nuggets have faced ATS losses, and they have a 14-15 record against the spread as favorites.

Thunder Offense Breakdown

The Thunder arrive for today’s game as one of the NBA’s top offensive teams, scoring an average of 121.3 points per game (5th). So far, Oklahoma City is averaging 100.2 possessions per game, making them one of the more up-tempo teams in the league. Oklahoma City has been highly effective on the offensive end, thanks to their combination of an up-tempo playing style and one of the league’s top effective field goal percentages, standing at 56%.

Nuggets Offense Breakdown

The Nuggets come into today’s game as the 13th ranked scoring offense at 115.9 points per game. Coming into today’s game, the Nuggets will be looking to improve their 3-point shooting numbers, as they are averaging just 12 made 3’s per game. Not only is the Denver offense struggling with their outside shot, but they are also getting to the charity stripe at a below average rate. So far, they are the 30th ranked team in made free-throws per contest.

Thunder Team Defense

In terms of defense, Thunder is currently on par with the NBA average for points allowed, giving up an average of 113.6 points per game. In the terms of takeaways, Thunder are causing 11.6 turnovers per game, ranking 4th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 3rd in rejections, averaging 6.6 blocked shots each game.

Nuggets Team Defense

Not only do the Nuggets’ overall defensive numbers look good, as they are 3rd in the league in points allowed. Denver has also been playing well on defense of late, ranking 25th in the league over their last three games at 104.7 PPG allowed. The Denver defense has allowed opponents to shoot 35.6% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 46.0% of their field goal attempts vs. Denver.

Key Players For The Thunder And Nuggets

In today’s game, our projections have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the Thunder with 22 points on 8/15 shooting from the field. During this season, he is delivering an average of 31.1 points per game, along with 5.8 rebounds.

On the flip side, our predictions place Jamal Murray as the leading scorer for the Nuggets. We expect him to conclude the game with a team-high 16 while also collecting 4 rebounds. For the season, he has a field goal percentage of 48.1% and is averaging 19.9 points per contest.

Thunder vs Nuggets Trends

  • When looking at their past five road matchups, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 114 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
  • Across their last five home contests, Denver has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 5-0, while averaging 116 points per game.
  • Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Oklahoma City has an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 5-5 straight up.
  • As the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 5-0.

Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction

As the underdogs with a spread of +3.5, we recommend going with the Thunder on the point spread. We not only see them covering the spread but also have a strong likelihood of winning this one outright, especially if you’re seeking a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 232 and our model has the Thunder and Nuggets finishing with a combined 222 points. Our pick is to take the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.