Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat Prediction 10/23/2024

The Magic are on the road to face the Miami Heat, with both team’s playing their first-game of the season. Tip-off for this season-opener, is set for 7:30 at Kaseya Center.

Magic vs Heat

orlando magic nba

The Magic Are Looking To Start Their Season With A Win

Orlando finished last season 47-35, placing 5th in the Eastern Conference. They were 29-12 at home but struggled on the road, going 18-23. The Magic were 9-7 in division play, finishing 1st in the Southeast Division. Heading into this season, we have them ranked 20th in our power rankings with a 47.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 12.8% chance of winning their division.

Against the spread, Orlando posted a 44-38 record, going 27-14 at home and 17-24 on the road. They were favored in 38 games, finishing with a 29-9 record in those matchups. The Magic’s average over/under line was 221.2 points, and their games averaged 218.9 points per contest. They ended the season with an O/U record of 38-44.

The Heat Are Looking To Start Their Season With A Win

Miami finished last season with a 46-36 record, placing 8th in the Eastern Conference. They were 32-20 in conference play and 13-3 in divisional games, finishing 2nd in the Southeast. This season, we have them ranked 10th in our power rankings, with a 90.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 73.0% chance of winning their division.

At home, the Heat went 22-19 with a +1.9 scoring margin, but they were just 15-26 against the spread. On the road, they were 24-17 straight-up and 19-19 ATS. As the favorite, Miami went 35-13 but struggled as the underdog, posting an 11-23 record.

Magic Offense Breakdown

The Magic enter the season ranked 26th in our offensive power rankings after finishing 24th in points per game (110.5) last season. Orlando was 26th in possessions per game (96.6) and last in field goal attempts per game (84.9), but they shot 47.6% from the field, ranking 15th. They were 30th in both three-pointers made (11.0) and attempted (31.3) per game, with a 35.2% success rate (24th). However, they led the league in free throw attempts per game (24.4) but were 26th in free throw percentage (75.9%).

Paolo Banchero, who averaged 22.6 points per game last season, is projected to lead the team in scoring, ranking 19th in our league-wide projections. Franz Wagner is projected to be 43rd in scoring, while Jalen Suggs is expected to be 117th. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, acquired from the Nuggets, is projected to lead the team in three-pointers made, ranking 63rd in the league.

Heat Offense Breakdown

miami heat

Miami enters the season ranked 15th in our offensive power rankings after finishing 26th in points per game (110.1) last season. The Heat were 29th in possessions per game (95.8) and 28th in field goal attempts per game (85.6), shooting 46.5% (22nd). They made 12.5 threes per game (19th) on 33.7 attempts (18th), with a 37.0% success rate (12th). Miami was 5th in free throw percentage (81.8%) and 13th in attempts (22.0 per game), while ranking 26th in offensive rebounds (9.3 per game).

Top Returning Players

Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler lead the Heat’s returning players. Adebayo averaged 19.3 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 3.9 assists in 71 games last season, while Butler posted 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5 assists in 60 games. Miami also added Alec Burks, who averaged 10.4 points per game for the Knicks last season.

Season Projections Key Players

Butler is projected to lead Miami in scoring, ranking 40th in our league-wide projections. Adebayo is projected 48th, and Tyler Herro is 49th. Herro is also projected to lead the team in made threes, ranking 23rd in the league. Duncan Robinson is projected 36th in made threes, while Terry Rozier is 45th.

Magic Team Defense

Orlando is coming off a season in which they allowed 108.4 points per game, ranking 5th in the NBA. We have them 5th in our defensive power rankings heading into the season. Last year, they held opponents to 35.7% shooting from beyond the arc, ranking 10th in the league.

On the inside, Paolo Banchero is projected to be one of the top rebounders among power forwards, while Wendell Carter Jr. is expected to lead the team in rebounding. Orlando ranked 13th in blocked shots last season, averaging 5.2 per game.

Heat Team Defense

Last season, the Magic were one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, finishing 5th in points allowed, at 108.4 per game. We have them ranked 5th in our defensive power rankings heading into this season. Orlando held opponents to 35.7% shooting from beyond the arc, ranking 10th in the league, and were 13th in effective field-goal percentage allowed.

Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. are key rebounders, but the Magic ranked just 25th in defensive rebounding last year. They averaged 8.2 steals per game, ranking 5th in the NBA, and were 13th in blocked shots, with 5.2 per game.

Magic vs Heat Trends

  • Although Orlando has a straight up record of 2-8 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 3-7. The team averaged 102 points per game in these games.
  • Across their last five home contests, Miami has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 102 points per game.
  • As the betting underdog, the Magic have an ATS mark of just 3-7 in their last ten games. Orlando posted a straight up mark of 2-8 in these matchups.
  • As the betting favorite, the Heat have an ATS mark of just 8-2 in their last ten games. Miami posted a straight up mark of 9-1 in these matchups.

Magic vs Heat Prediction

For today’s matchup we are recommending to take the Heat to secure the win, with an expected final score of 148-119. When it comes to the spread, we believe they’ll cover at -2.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 208.5, and our model projects the Magic and Heat to reach a combined total of 267 points. Our bet is on taking the over.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.