Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction 5/4/2024

The Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) travel to face off against the Denver Nuggets (57-25) on Saturday, May 4th. This game will be played at Ball Arena in Denver and televised on TNT. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 7:00 ET.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets

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Minnesota picked up a 122-116 win over the Suns to close out the series in four games. The Timberwolves were able to close out the series on Phoenix’s home floor. The over/under line for the game was 213 points, and the teams combined for 238 points, hitting the over by 25 points.

Anthony Edwards had a huge game for the Timberwolves, scoring 40 points while also grabbing nine rebounds and dishing out six assists. He hit seven threes on 53.8% shooting from beyond the arc. Karl-Anthony Towns added 28 points and 10 rebounds while shooting 64.7% from the field and 66.7% from beyond the arc.

Denver picked up a 108-106 win in their last game to close out their series against the Lakers. They won the series 4-1 in five games. The Nuggets were able to close out the series at home. The combined total of 214 points was just below the over/under line of 216.5 points.

Offensively, the Nuggets were led by Jamal Murray, who had 32 points and hit five threes. Michael Porter Jr. also hit five threes and finished with 26 points. Nikola Jokic added 25 points and 20 rebounds. As a team, the Nuggets hit 16 threes and shot 42.1% from beyond the arc.

Timberwolves Offense Breakdown

This season, the Timberwolves are 18th in the league in scoring at 113 points per game. They have been slightly better on the road, averaging 114.4 points per game. Minnesota is 8th in field goal percentage, at 48%, and 3rd in three-point shooting, at 38%.

Anthony Edwards has averaged 27.4 points per game over his last five games on a field goal percentage of 50.6%. In these games, he also averaged 5.8 assists. Rudy Gobert is averaging 12.9 rebounds per game this season and 16.2 points over his last five games, while Karl-Anthony Towns has hit 47.6% of his threes in his last five games.

Nuggets Offense Breakdown

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Denver comes into the game as the 10th best home scoring team, at 117.8 points per game. Overall, they are 13th in the league, at 114.9 points per contest. The Nuggets are one of the most efficient shooting teams in the league, as they have hit 49% of their shots from the field, which is the 4th best mark in the NBA. However, they are just 25th in three-point shooting percentage.

Nikola Jokic has been carrying the Nuggets offense of late, averaging 28.2 points and 16.2 rebounds in his last five games. Over this stretch, he also averaged 9.8 assists. Michael Porter Jr. has hit 48.8% of his threes in his last five games, averaging 22.8 points per game. Jamal Murray is questionable with a calf injury, and if he plays, he will be looking to bounce back from a stretch of shooting just 40% from the field.

Timberwolves Team Defense

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves are the best in the NBA, allowing just 106.4 points per game. They are also the best in the league at defending the two-point shot, allowing opponents to shoot just 50.8% from inside the arc.

Minnesota is also a top-five team in blocked shots per game, swatting away 6.1 shots per contest. They are also 6th in the NBA in steals per game at 7.9.

Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have slipped a bit defensively, allowing 107.6 points per game. Opponents have also shot 40.3% from three during that stretch.

Nuggets Team Defense

When it comes to defense, the Denver Nuggets have been one of the best units in the league this season. They are currently 6th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 109.4. At home, the Nuggets are giving up just 108.3 points per contest, which is the 5th best mark in the league.

One area where Denver has been particularly stingy is from beyond the arc. On the season, they are 2nd in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed at 35.1%. Over their last five games, that number has dropped to just 29.8%.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 76.8% of games against the Nuggets this season. Additionally, opposing teams have made fewer threes than their season average in 74.4% of games vs. Denver.

Key Players For The Timberwolves And Nuggets

The outlook for today’s matchup points to Anthony Edwards as the primary point contributor for the Timberwolves, finishing with 26 points while maintaining a 9/20 shooting accuracy. During this season, he is delivering an average of 25.9 points per game, along with 5.4 rebounds.

On the opposing side, we anticipate Nikola Jokic to be the top scorer for the Nuggets. Our projection has him finishing the game with 27, and he is expected to secure 13 rebounds. For the season, he has a field goal percentage of 58.3% and is averaging 26.4 points per contest.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Trends

  • Across their ten previous road games, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 7-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 7-3 while averaging 114 points per game.
  • Through their last ten home contests, the Nuggets offense has averaged 112 points per game while allowing an average of 108. Denver posted an overall record of 6-4 while going 4-6 ATS.
  • In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Timberwolves have a strong straight up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.
  • In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have a straight up record of 2-1, while going 0-3 against the spread.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction

In this Timberwolves vs. Nuggets matchup, our point-spread bet is on the Timberwolves at +4.5. While we project the Nuggets to win 113-112, our recommendation is to bet on the Timberwolves for the point-spread.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 208.5 and given that our model is projecting 225 points between the teams, we like the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.