timberwolves vs heat nba betting prediction

NBA: Timberwolves vs Miami Heat Prediction 12/18/2023

The Minnesota Timberwolves (19-5) travel to face off against the Miami Heat (15-11) on Monday, December 18th. This game will be played at Kaseya Center. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 7:30 ET.

Timberwolves vs Heat

The Timberwolves Are Coming Off A Win

The Timberwolves picked up a win over the Pacers in their latest game, finishing with a score of 127-109. Not only did the Timberwolves win this game straight-up, but they also covered the spread as -11 point favorites. Concerning the over/under, the total of 236 points remained below the established over/under line of 240.

The Timberwolves come into today’s game looking to build on their two game winning streak. Overall, they are 19-5, and have gone 8-4 on the road compared to 11-1 at home.

Minnesota comes in with an overall ATS record of 13-10 so far this season. The Timberwolves maintain an ATS record of 5-6 on the road, while they have a 8-4 record vs. the spread when playing at home.

The Heat Are Coming Off A Win

In their last game, the Heat defeated the Bulls with a final score of 118-116. As the second half got underway, the Heat were leading by a score of 58-57.

Coming into today’s games, the Heat are 15-11 overall and have gone 2-1 in their last three games. In the Eastern Conference, they are currently in 5th place and are 2nd in the Southeast division.

Miami has an ATS record of 11-14 for this season, which includes their current two game losing streak against the spread. The Heat have experienced a two game ATS loss streak as favorites, and they are 5-5 vs. the spread when they are underdogs.

Timberwolves Offense Breakdown

Through 24 games the Timberwolves are averaging 113.6 points per contest, placing them 18th in the NBA. When looking at the team’s pace of play, the Timberwolves are currently below the league average in possessions per game, averaging just 98.1 per contest. Although the Timberwolves have a current effective field goal percentage of 55%, their below average pace of play is a key factor behind their mediocre scoring numbers.

Heat Offense Breakdown

The Heat come into today’s game as the 20th ranked scoring offense at 113 points per game. The Heat come into the game as one of the league’s better 3-point shooting teams, connecting at a rate of 12.9 made 3’s per game. If the Heat offense is going to improve, they could look to play at a faster tempo, as they currently average just 96.7 possession per game. This could benefit the team as they are currently one of the better 3-point shooting units in the NBA.

Timberwolves Team Defense

Currently, the Timberwolves’ defense holds the 1st rank in the NBA, allowing 105.8 points per game.

When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Timberwolves squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 49.6% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 33.5% from downtown.

Heat Team Defense

The Heat’s defense is presently ranked 10th in the league, allowing an average of 112.0 points per contest.

Miami’s defense is currently forcing 12.3 turnovers per game, which is 7th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 30th in blocked shots, with an average of 3.1 rejections per game.

Key Players For The Timberwolves And Heat

The outlook for today’s matchup points to Karl-Anthony Towns as the primary point contributor for the Timberwolves, finishing with 17 points while maintaining a 6/11 shooting accuracy. Throughout this season, his average stands at 22.4 points per game, along with 9.5 rebounds.

As for Miami, Bam Adebayo is projected to be the primary scorer for the Heat. Our forecast has him finishing the game with 15, and adding 6 rebounds. Throughout the season, he has maintained a 52.2% field goal shooting rate and is averaging 22.2 points per game.

Timberwolves vs Heat Trends

  • Across their last three road contests, Minnesota has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 117 points per game.
  • Through their last three home contests, the Heat offense has averaged 108 points per game while allowing an average of 109. Miami posted an overall record of 2-1 while going 1-2 ATS.
  • Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Heat have a straight up record of 1-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 2-3.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 9-1. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.

Timberwolves vs Heat Prediction

The Heat come in as the underdog at +1, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 219, and our model predicts the Timberwolves and Heat to score a combined 225 points. We recommend betting on the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.