air force vs boise state ncaaf prediction

NCAAF Air Force Falcons vs Boise State Prediction 11/24/2023

The Air Force Falcons (8-3) travel to face off against the Boise State Broncos (6-5) on Friday, November 24th. This game will be played at Albertsons Stadium in Boise and televised on FS1. Boise State is coming off a win in their previous game, while Air Force is looking to get back on track from a loss to the UNLV. Kickoff is set for 4:00 ET.

Air Force Falcons vs Boise State Broncos

The Air Force Falcons Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

In their most recent game, Air Force faced off against UNLV and lost 31-27. The Falcons squandered a 27-14 lead going into the half. Although Jensen Jones did toss a touchdown against UNLV, he did find the endzone with his legs. Overall, he threw for 35 while completing 16.7% of his passes.

Favored by 3, Air Force not only lost straight-up but picked up an ATS loss. Combining for 58 points, the team’s surpassed the over/under line of 47.

So far, the Air Force Falcons are 8-3, including going 3-1 on the road and 3-2 at home.

Against the spread, Air Force has put together a record of 4-4-1. This mark has come while being favored in every game. So far this season, Air Force boasts an over/under record of 5-4. On average, their matchups have resulted in a combined score of 45.5 points, while the average over/under line has been 42.6 points.

The Boise State Broncos Are Coming Off A Win

The Broncos are looking to ride the momentum of their convincing 45-10 win over Utah State. In the win to Utah State, quarterback Taylen Green concluded with a QB rating of 103.31 while connecting on 8 of 17 passes for 93 yards. Moreover, he contributed two touchdowns to the game.

With an over/under line of 63.5 going into the game, the teams fell short of that number with 55 points. Boise State covered the spread as 4-point favorites.

With a 6-5 record, the Boise State Broncos take on Air Force. Their road record so far is (2-4) and at home (3-1).

So far, Boise State has been favored six times and the underdog in four games. This has led to an ATS record of 4-5-1 and an average scoring differential of +6.6. So far in this season, Boise State has posted an over/under record of 6-4. On average, their matchups have yielded a combined score of 58.3 points, with the typical over/under line set at 56.4 points.

Air Force Offense Breakdown

As they prepare to face the Boise State, the Falcons’ offense is averaging 282 rushing yards per game and 5 yards per attempt. Nationally, they are 2nd in rushing yards and 129th in passing yards, on an average of 84.5 yards per matchup. Air Force has averaged 28.4 points per game so far. This figure places them 52nd in the nation.

This season, Zac Larrier has thrown for 744 yards while maintaining an average of 20.1 per completion. His completion percentage stands at 59.7%, and he’s recorded six touchdowns.

Boise State Offense Breakdown

Boise State’s offense has put up an average of 32.5 points per game, placing them 30th in the NCAA rankings. Through the air, they’ve gained 229.7 passing yards on average, ranking 60th in the nation. On the ground, they’re holding the 9th position in rushing yards, with 430 rushing attempts per game this season.

With 1298 passing yards and a completion percentage of 53.3%, quarterback Taylen Green leads the team in passing. His average yards per pass attempt stands at 7.2.

Air Force Team Defense

The Falcons defense comes into the game with 25 sacks, and ranked 1st in QB hurries. In terms of points allowed, they are giving up 17.1 points per game (59th). When it comes to defending the pass, they are ranked 28th in the NCAA, allowing an average of 176.7 passing yards per game. Additionally, Air Force’s run defense comes in allowing 90.4 rushing yards per contest.

Boise State Team Defense

Looking at this week’s game, the Boise State defense stands at 101st in points allowed, permitting 25.8 points on average per game. So far, opposing teams have managed 266.1 passing yards per game against them (162nd). On the ground, they’re conceding 120.1 rushing yards, ranking them 41st in college football.

Air Force vs Boise State Trends

  • Air Force is 5-4-1 in their last ten games road games.
  • At home, Boise State has gone 3-6-1 against the spread (last ten).
  • Looking back at the last three times Boise State went into a game as the underdog, their ATS mark was 1-1-1.
  • Looking back on the last three times Air Force was favored, their ATS record was 0-3.

Air Force vs Boise State Prediction

So far, turnovers have been a problem in the passing game for Boise State. Coming in as the away underdogs, I like Air Force to cover the spread at +6.5.

On the over/under, I have the best bet being to take the over at 46.5. This looks like a slam dunk bet for me, as my gut tells me the over will hit as well as our model projecting a combined 48 points.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.