New mexico vs liberty ncaaf prediction

NCAAF New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction 12/1/2023

The New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) travel to face off against the Liberty Flames (12-0) on Friday, December 1st. This game will be played at Williams Stadium (VA) in Lynchburg and televised on CBSS. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Kickoff is set for 7:00 ET.

New Mexico State Aggies vs Liberty Flames

The New Mexico State Aggies Are Coming Off A Win

As New Mexico State prepares to face Liberty, they are coming off a 20-17 win over Jacksonville State. Quarterback Diego Pavia threw the ball 34 times vs. Jacksonville State and finished with 269 passing yards on a completion percentage of 67.6%. He did also end up throwing two interceptions in the win.


So far, the New Mexico State Aggies are 10-3, including going 5-2 on the road and 2-1 at home.

Heading into this week’s matchup with Liberty, the Aggies have been favored in four games and the underdog in six. Their ATS mark coming into the game is 8-2. Heading into this week’s game, New Mexico State’s over/under record is 3-7. Their average margin against their over/under lines is currently -4.8 with their games averaging 47.9 points per game.

The Liberty Flames Are Coming Off A Win

Liberty most recently played against UTEP and won by a score of 42-28. In the win against UTEP, quarterback Kaidon Salter achieved a QB rating of 75.19, completing 4 of 11 passes for 22 yards. Additionally, he contributed one touchdown to the game.

On the point-spread, Liberty was favored by 18 going into the game, giving them an ATs loss. On the over/uner the combined 70 points surpassed the pre-game betting line of 55 points.

Liberty heads into this week’s game with a record of 12-0. This year, they have four games on the road and six games at home.

Liberty heads into this week’s matchup with an ATS record of 7-3. So far, they have been favored in every game and have an average scoring margin of +18.4 points per contest. Over 12 games, the average over/under line for Liberty’s games has been 57 points. The total score in these matchups has averaged 61.8 points, resulting in an OU record of 7-3.

New Mexico State Offense Breakdown

On the offensive side, New Mexico State has averaged 28.2 points per game this season. This figure has them 42nd in the NCAA. Their passing game, averaging 217.4 passing yards, is ranked 56th nationally. In terms of rushing, they’re 6th in rushing yards with an average of 457 rushing attempts per contest this season.

Diego Pavia has thrown for 2727 yards this season, with an average of 13.7 per completion. His completion percentage is 61.2%, and he’s recorded 23 touchdowns.

Liberty Offense Breakdown

Liberty’s rushing attack is ranked 2nd in college football with 584 rushing attempts per game. This has translated into an average of 296.7 rushing yards per game, placing them 1st nationally. On average, they are attempting 21.2 passes per game leading to 203.1 passing yards per contest. In terms of scoring, they hold the 5th position, averaging 40.1 points per game.

Kaidon Salter is the top passer for the team this season, with 2431 yards and an average of 17.1 per completion. His completion rate is 58.9%, and he’s thrown 29 touchdowns.

New Mexico State Team Defense

This season, the Aggies’ defense has yielded an average of 126.8 rushing yards, earning them a rank of 171st. Opponents have an average of 235.8 passing yards, with opposing quarterbacks attaining a passer rating of 91.6 when facing New Mexico State. They are currently 80th in points allowed in NCAA rankings.

Liberty Team Defense

Liberty’s defense is ranked 94th in passing yards allowed per game as they prepare for this matchup. Opponents have attempted an average of 35.8 passing attempts against the Flames. They have given up 21.7 points per game so far, placing them 78th in college football. In the NCAA’s rush defense category, they are 26th.

New Mexico State vs Liberty Trends

  • New Mexico State are 5-0 Against the spread in their last five games on the road.
  • Liberty is 4-1 Against the spread in their last five games at home.
  • Looking back at the last five times Liberty went into a game as the underdog, their ATS mark was 5-0.
  • New Mexico State are 5-0 in their last five games as favorites.

New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction

Based on their solid defensive performance against UTEP, I’m confident in rolling with New Mexico State as the best bet to cover the spread this week, especially with the line at +10.5.

My bet for this game is the over, with the current over/under line at 53.5. So far this season, Liberty games have averaged a combined score of 61.8 points, and I foresee this game surpassing 53.5.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.