north carolina state vs NC State ncaaf prediction

NCAAF North Carolina Tar vs NC State Prediction 11/25/2023

The North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3) travel to face off against the NC State Wolfpack (8-3) on Saturday, November 25th. This game will be played at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh and televised on ACCN. NC State is coming off a win in their previous game, while North Carolina is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Clemson. Kickoff is set for 8:00 ET.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs NC State Wolfpack

The North Carolina Tar Heels Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

In the Tar Heels’ 31-20 loss to Clemson, the Tar Heels jumped out to an early 7-0 in the first quarter but were unable to ride that momentum to a win. In the loss vs. Clemson, quarterback Drake Maye finished with a QB rating of 61.0 while completing 16 of 36 passes for 209 yards. He also ended the game with one touchdown.

The betting lines going into the game were 59.5 on the over/under and North Carolina as 7.5-point underdogs. As they combined for 51 points, this was a hit for the under and North Carolina was handed an ATS loss.

So far, the North Carolina Tar Heels are 8-3, including going 1-2 on the road and 4-1 at home.

Against the spread, North Carolina has gone 5-3 this season. The Tar Heels have been favored seven times compared to one game as the underdog. Across 11 games, the average over/under line in North Carolina’s matchups is 57.6 points. These games have seen an average combined score of 64.1 points, resulting in an OU record of 3-4-1.

The NC State Wolfpack Are Coming Off A Win

Most recently, NC State matched up against Virginia Tech and won by a score of 35-28. During their most recent win, quarterback Brennan Armstrong found the end zone with two rushing touchdowns and gained 89 rushing yards. In the passing game, he achieved a completion rate of 69.2% and passed for 203 yards, resulting in a passer rating of 117.95.

On the betting lines, the over/under was 41, resulting in a hit for the over. NC State not only won but covered as they were the betting underdogs at +2.

This season, the NC State Wolfpack are currently 8-3. So far this season, they have played five road games and five at home.

So far, NC State has been favored four times and the underdog in six games. This has led to an ATS record of 6-4 and an average scoring differential of +5.5. Over 11 games, the average over/under line for NC State’s games has been 46 points. The total score in these matchups has averaged 45.9 points, resulting in an OU record of 3-7.

North Carolina Offense Breakdown

On offense, North Carolina comes into the game averaging 38.1, which is 12th in the NCAA. On average, they are averaging 311.6 passing yards (8th) compared to 14th in rushing yards. For the season, they are averaging 435 rushing attempts per contest.

With 3354 passing yards and a completion percentage of 63.8%, quarterback Drake Maye leads the team in passing. His average yards per pass attempt stands at 8.7.

NC State Offense Breakdown

NC State enters the game on offense with an average of 25.7, ranking them 63rd in the NCAA. Their passing game has them at 105th in the nation, with an average of 183.7 passing yards per game. On the ground, they’re at 80th in rushing yards, with an average of 398 rushing attempts per game this season.

So far this season, Brennan Armstrong has thrown for 1285 yards, averaging 10.4 per completion. His completion percentage is 61.1%, and he’s registered eight touchdowns.

North Carolina Team Defense

As we head into this week’s game, the North Carolina defense ranks 102nd for points allowed, with an average of 26 points per game. Teams have been gaining 234 passing yards per game against them (113th nationally). Against the run, they’ve given up 164 rushing yards, placing them 109th in college football.

NC State Team Defense

This season, the Wolfpack’s defense has allowed 102.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 189th. Opponents average 215.5 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks have put together a passer rating of 76.3 against NC State. They hold the 82nd position in NCAA points allowed.

North Carolina vs NC State Trends

  • On the road, North Carolina has gone 5-4-1 vs. the spread.
  • At home, NC State has gone 2-1 against the spread (last three).
  • NC State’s ATS record in their five most recent games as an underdog is 4-1.
  • Looking back on the last three times North Carolina was favored, their ATS record was 1-2.

North Carolina vs NC State Prediction

I like North Carolina to pick up the win and cover the spread in this matchup, as they have the edge in the passing game over NC State. My spread pick for this game is to take North Carolina at -2.

On the over/under, I have the best bet being to take the over at 55. This looks like a slam dunk bet for me, as my gut tells me the over will hit as well as our model projecting a combined 57 points.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.