The North Texas Mean Green (6-6) face off against the Texas State Bobcats (7-5) on Friday, January 3rd. This game will be played at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas and televised on ESPN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Kickoff is set for 4:00 ET.

North Texas Mean Green vs Texas State Bobcats

 

North Texas Offense Breakdown

North Texas has been one of the most pass-heavy teams in college football, ranking second in passing attempts and third in completions. They are sixth in passing yards, averaging 322.8 yards per game, and are 20th in scoring with 34 points per game. Chandler Morris has thrown for 3,774 yards and 31 touchdowns, but he also has 12 interceptions and a passer rating of 96.

DT Sheffield leads the receiving corps with 822 yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 catches. North Texas ranks 63rd in our offensive power rankings. They have struggled on third downs, converting just 35.3% of their attempts, and are 97th in rushing attempts, averaging 170.1 rushing yards per game.

Texas State Offense Breakdown

Texas State’s offense has been strong this season, averaging 37.1 points per game, which ranks 9th in the nation. They are 41st in our offensive power rankings heading into this week. Quarterback Jordan McCloud has thrown for 2,915 yards with a passer rating of 107, leading the team to 29 passing touchdowns, though he has also thrown 12 interceptions.

Texas State ranks 6th in completion percentage, completing 69.2% of their passes, and they are 21st in completions per game. They are also 19th in rushing, averaging 210.5 yards per game. Ismail Mahdi leads the team with 991 rushing yards. Joey Hobert has 661 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns.

North Texas Team Defense

North Texas’ defense has struggled this season, allowing 34.5 points per game. They’ve given up an average of 261.1 passing yards per game and 197.7 rushing yards, ranking 150th nationally against the run.

In their recent game against Temple, the defense allowed 17 points and 346 total yards. They limited Temple to 78 rushing yards on 28 attempts and forced one interception.

North Texas Team Defense

Texas State’s defense has allowed an average of 24.2 points per game this season, including 38 points in their recent 45-38 win over South Alabama. They gave up 377 total yards, with 147 rushing yards on 27 attempts and 230 passing yards, but also forced two interceptions.

Opponents have averaged 150.8 rushing yards per game and 199.8 passing yards against Texas State, completing 56.6% of their passes. Quarterbacks have a passer rating of 78.7 when facing the Bobcats’ defense.

North Texas vs Texas State Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, North Texas has an ATS record of 1-4 while averaging 31 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• Across their last three home contests, Texas State has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 32 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the North Texas Mean Green have a straight up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 0-3.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Texas State Bobcats have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.

Mean Green vs Bobcats Prediction

Our projections have Texas State winning their week one matchup against North Texas with a final score of 43-32. The Bobcats are -10 point favorites at home, and we expect them to cover the spread.

With the over/under line set at 68.5 points, we see a lot of value in taking the over, as our model is projecting a combined 75 points.

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All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

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* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.