ole miss vs mississippi ncaaf prediction

NCAAF Ole Rebels vs Mississippi State Prediction 11/23/2023

The Ole Miss Rebels (9-2) travel to face off against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6) on Thursday, November 23rd. This game will be played at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville and televised on ESPN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Kickoff is set for 7:30 ET.

Ole Miss Rebels vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

The Ole Miss Rebels Are Coming Off A Win

In their most recent game, Ole Miss matched up with UL Monroe and came out on top with a 35-3 win. Heading into the 4th quarter of the game, Ole Miss held a 18-point lead. In the win to UL Monroe, quarterback Jaxson Dart concluded with a QB rating of 140.52 while connecting on 24 of 31 passes for 310 yards. Moreover, he contributed three touchdowns to the game.

Ole Miss’ straight-up win was not enough to cover the spread vs. UL Monroe, as the line going into the game was -36.5. On the over/under, the line was set at 62, resulting in a hit for the under.

So far, the Ole Miss Rebels are 9-2, including going 2-2 on the road and 6-0 at home.

So far, Ole Miss has been favored seven times and the underdog in three games. This has led to an ATS record of 5-4-1 and an average scoring differential of +12.7. So far this season, the average over/under line for Ole Miss’ games has been 60 points. The Rebels have an over/under record of 4-6 heading into this week’s game.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs Are Coming Off A Win

In their most recent game, Mississippi State had no problem taking down Southern Miss, as they went on to win by a score of 41-20. Against Southern Miss, Will Rogers threw for 144 yards on a completion percentage of 44.4%. In the win, he threw two touchdowns and had a passer rating of 86.03.

Heading into the game Mississippi State was the betting favorite at 18 and picked up an ATS win. Together, the teams scored 61 points, resulting in a hit for the over.

This season, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are currently 5-6. So far this season, they have played four road games and five at home.

Mississippi State has gone into two games as the favorite this season and seven games as the underdog. Their ATS record is currently 2-7. After 11 games, the average over/under line in Mississippi State’s matches stands at 48 points. The collective score in their games has averaged 50.6 points, resulting in an OU record of 6-3.

Ole Miss Offense Breakdown

On offense, the Rebels come in with the 61st ranked offense in terms of passing attempts and are averaging 293 passing yards per game. In the running game, they are 19th in terms of attempts.

This season, Jaxson Dart has thrown for 2889 yards while maintaining an average of 14.9 per completion. His completion percentage stands at 66.2%, and he’s recorded 19 touchdowns.

Mississippi State Offense Breakdown

The Bulldogs come into their matchup vs. Ole Miss 65th in college football at 370 rushing attempts per game. This has translated to an average of 151.6 rushing yards per game, placing them 77th nationally. Additionally, they’ve been airing it out 28.1 times each game, accumulating an average of 179.5 passing yards. In terms of scoring, they stand 74th, with 23.2 points per game.

Quarterback Will Rogers leads the team with 1419 passing yards while completing 59.1% of his passes. So far, he is averaging 7.2 yards per passing attempt.

Ole Miss Team Defense

The Rebels defense heads into this week’s matchup with 33 sacks and sitting 1st in QB hurries. So far, they’ve allowed 23.7 points per game (89th). In the pass defense department, they’re 87th nationally, giving up 221.2 passing yards per game. Additionally, when it comes to defending the run, Ole Miss’ defense is allowing 157 rushing yards per contest.

Mississippi State Team Defense

The Bulldogs defense comes into the game with 26 sacks, and ranked 1st in QB hurries. In terms of points allowed, they are giving up 27.5 points per game (112th). When it comes to defending the pass, they are ranked 75th in the NCAA, allowing an average of 214.5 passing yards per game. Additionally, Mississippi State’s run defense comes in allowing 141.2 rushing yards per contest.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Trends

  • When playing on the road, Ole Miss has an ATS mark of 5-4-1 vs. the spread.
  • Looking across Mississippi State’s three most recent home games, they are 1-2 against the spread.
  • Mississippi State’s ATS record in their ten most recent games as the underdog is 2-8.
  • Ole Miss’ record vs. the spread in their five most recent games as the favorite is 2-2-1.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Prediction

For a point-spread pick, I like Ole Miss with a -11.5 spread for this one. Following a strong defensive performance, I expect them to deliver another good outing. I believe Ole Miss will not only secure the win but also cover the spread against Mississippi State.

My choice for this matchup is the under, considering the over/under line at 55.5. Heading into this game, games featuring Mississippi State have seen an average combined score of 50.6 points, and I believe this game will remain under 55.5.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.