SMU vs Memphis ncaaf betting

NCAAF: SMU vs. Memphis Prediction 11/18/2023

The SMU Mustangs (8-2) travel to face off against the Memphis Tigers (8-2) on Saturday, November 18th. This game will be played at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis and televised on ESPN2. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Kickoff is set for 12:00 ET.

SMU Mustangs vs Memphis Tigers

The SMU Mustangs Are Coming Off A Win

SMU most recently took down North Texas by a score of 45-21. The Mustangs went into the 4th quarter of this game leading by 10. In the win against North Texas, quarterback Preston Stone achieved a QB rating of 109.17, completing 11 of 20 passes for 234 yards. Additionally, he contributed two touchdowns to the game.

The over/under line going into the game was 66.5 points, which the teams fell short of. SMU picked up an ATS win as they were favored by 19.5.

This season, the SMU Mustangs are currently 8-2. So far this season, they have played five road games and five at home.

SMU’s average scoring differential for the season is +24.1 leading to an ATS mark of 6-4. The Mustangs have been favored eight times and the underdog in two games This season, SMU holds an over/under record of 4-6. On average, their games have produced a combined total of 56.9 points, with the typical over/under line set at 59.8 points.

The Memphis Tigers Are Coming Off A Win

Memphis is coming off a thrilling 44-38 win over Charlotte. The two teams needed overtime to settle the game, as they were all tied at 38-38 at the end of regulation. In the win to Charlotte, quarterback Seth Henigan concluded with a QB rating of 91.41 while connecting on 32 of 48 passes for 329 yards. Moreover, he contributed two touchdowns to the game.

Even though Memphis won straight-up, they did not cover the spread as 10 point favorites. The pre-game over/under line was 51.5, which Memphis and Charlotte surpassed.

With a 8-2 record, the Memphis Tigers take on SMU. Their road record so far is (3-0) and at home (3-2).

Heading into this week’s matchup with SMU, the Tigers have been favored in six games and the underdog in two. Their ATS mark coming into the game is 2-5-1. Memphis has put together an over/under record of 6-2 throughout this season. The average combined score in their games has been 68.6 points, and the standard over/under line has stood at 57.8 points.

SMU Offense Breakdown

The Mustangs’ offense is set to face Memphis while averaging 190.1 rushing yards per game and 4 yards per attempt. In the national rankings, they currently stand at 25th for rushing yards and 22nd for passing yards, with an average of 285.5 yards per matchup. Overall, SMU is putting up 40.5 points per game, which is 7th nationally.

This season, Preston Stone has thrown for a total of 2596 yards while maintaining an average of 14.7 yards per completion. His completion percentage is 58.6%, and he’s recorded 23 touchdowns.

Memphis Offense Breakdown

Memphis’ rushing attack is ranked 60th in college football with 339 rushing attempts per game. This has translated into an average of 156.7 rushing yards per game, placing them 67th nationally. On average, they are attempting 36.7 passes per game leading to 296.5 passing yards per contest. In terms of scoring, they hold the 9th position, averaging 39.7 points per game.

Seth Henigan is the team’s leading passer this season, racking up 2864 yards while averaging 11.9 per completion. His completion rate for the year stands at 66.3%, with 22 touchdowns.

SMU Team Defense

The Mustangs defense comes into the game with 35 sacks, and ranked 1st in QB hurries. In terms of points allowed, they are giving up 16.4 points per game (55th). When it comes to defending the pass, they are ranked 27th in the NCAA, allowing an average of 173.8 passing yards per game. Additionally, SMU’s run defense comes in allowing 117.2 rushing yards per contest.

Memphis Team Defense

Coming into this week’s game, the Memphis defense is 117th in points allowed at 28.9 points per game. So far, team’s have averaged 242.2 passing yards per game vs. the unit (123rd). On the ground, they are giving up 175.2 rushing yards, putting them 128th in college football.

SMU vs Memphis Trends

  • When playing on the road, SMU has an ATS mark of 2-3 vs. the spread.
  • Memphis is 6-4 in their last ten home games.
  • In the ten most recent times they were the underdog, Memphis has put together an ATS record of 3-7.
  • SMU are 2-1 in their last three games as favorites.

SMU vs Memphis Prediction

So far this season, the SMU offense has been excellent at moving the chains on third down. I expect this trend to continue as they put together some sustained drives vs. Memphis. I’m taking SMU at -8.5.

Our model sees the over/under line for this matchup being to low and like the outlook of this game surpassing 65.5 points. The betting model spit out this game finishing with a combined 66 points.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

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