SMU Mustangs vs Penn State Nittany Lions NCAAF Betting Prediction
PublishedDecember 12, 2024,            Posted By: Maria Uebelhor
Last updated:December 12, 2024 ,

NCAAF SMU vs Penn State Prediction Playoff First Round Game

The SMU Mustangs (11-2) face off against the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) on Saturday, December 21st. This game will be played at Beaver Stadium in University Park and televised on TNT. Both SMU and Penn State will be looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 ET.

SMU Mustangs vs Penn State Nittany Lions

NoneNone

SMU Offense Breakdown

SMU’s offense is averaging 38.5 points per game, ranking 6th in the nation heading into week 11. They are also 22nd in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 3,050 yards with a passer rating of 105, leading SMU to 15th in passing yards per game. Jennings has 22 touchdowns and 8 interceptions this season.

SMU is converting 46.5% of their third downs, ranking 18th nationally. They are 17th in rushing attempts per game, averaging 181.1 yards on the ground. Brashard Smith leads the rushing attack with 1,267 yards and 14 touchdowns. Roderick Daniels Jr. has 599 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.

Penn State Offense Breakdown

Penn State’s offense is averaging 33.6 points per game, ranking 22nd in the nation, but they are 4th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 11. Their rushing attack is strong, with 203.6 yards per game on 37.5 attempts. Nicholas Singleton leads the team with 838 rushing yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored seven touchdowns.

Quarterback Drew Allar has thrown for 2,894 yards with 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 109. Penn State ranks 10th nationally in passer rating and 5th in completion percentage at 69.5%. They convert 47.8% of their third downs. Harrison Wallace III has 638 receiving yards and four touchdowns this season.

SMU Team Defense

SMU’s defense has been strong against the run this season, ranking 9th nationally by allowing just 94.5 rushing yards per game. In their recent game against Clemson, they gave up only 64 rushing yards on 32 attempts. However, the secondary allowed 262 passing yards and four touchdowns.

Opponents have averaged a 77.1 passer rating and completed 55.6% of their passes against SMU, while averaging 232.7 passing yards per game. Overall, SMU’s defense ranks 30th in the nation, giving up 20.8 points per game.

SMU Team Defense

Despite a rough outing against Oregon, where Penn State’s defense gave up 45 points and 469 total yards, they still rank 10th nationally, allowing just 16.4 points per game this season. Oregon managed 283 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air, while also rushing for 186 yards on 41 attempts.

On average, Penn State’s defense has allowed 106.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 18th in the country. Opponents have averaged 178.5 passing yards per game, completing 58.2% of their throws with a passer rating of 77.3.

SMU vs Penn State Trends

  • SMU has played well in their previous three road games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 33 points per game while allowing 14. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
  • Across the Penn State Nittany Lions last three home games, the team averaged 37 points per game while allowing 26. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 2-1 straight-up.
  • Through their last three games as the underdog, the SMU Mustangs have an ATS record of 3-0 and a straight up mark of 3-0.
  • As the betting favorite, the Penn State Nittany Lions have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. Penn State posted a straight up mark of 10-0 in these matchups.

Mustangs vs Nittany Lions Prediction

Our projection for this week one matchup between SMU and Penn State is a 27-23 win for the Mustangs, who are currently the -8.5 point spread favorites. We would recommend taking SMU to cover as the road underdog.

With the over/under line set at 53.5 points, our projection of 50 combined points suggests that taking the under is the best play for this matchup.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.