The UCF Knights (5-5) travel to face off against the Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-5) on Saturday, November 18th. This game will be played at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock and televised on FS2. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Kickoff is set for 5:00 ET.
UCF Knights vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
The UCF Knights Are Coming Off A Win
The Knights are looking to ride the momentum of their convincing 45-3 win over Oklahoma State. In the win vs. Oklahoma State, quarterback John Rhys Plumlee concluded with a QB rating of 144.68, connecting on 11 of 18 passes for 299 yards. He also added three touchdowns to his performance.
Combining for 48 points, the under hit in this matchup with a line of 64. UCF covered the spread, as they were 2.5-point underdogs going into the game.
So far, the UCF Knights are 5-5, including going 2-3 on the road and 2-2 at home.
Against the spread, UCF has gone 3-6 this season. The Knights have been favored six times compared to three games as the underdog. Across 10 games, the average over/under line in UCF’s matchups is 59.7 points. These games have seen an average combined score of 60.8 points, resulting in an OU record of 5-4.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders Are Coming Off A Win
Texas Tech’s most recent game finished in a tight 16-13 win over Kansas. Behren Morton finished with 176 yards against Kansas while going 19 for 25 for a completion percentage of 76.0%. He ended the game without a rushing or passing touchdown.
Texas Tech was the underdog at +3.5, giving them an ATS and straight-up win. The under hit in the game with the over/under line set at 62 points.
So far, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are 5-5, including going 2-2 on the road and 2-2 at home.
Texas Tech’s average scoring differential for the season is +4.7 leading to an ATS mark of 4-4. The Red Raiders have been favored six times and the underdog in two games Over the course of 10 games, the average over/under line in Texas Tech’s matchups has been 57.1 points. These games have had an average combined score of 53.5 points, leading to an OU record of 3-5.
UCF Offense Breakdown
The Knights are currently ranked 14th in college football with 411 rushing attempts per game. In terms of rush yards, they are at 233.8 rushing yards per game, which is 3rd in the nation. Looking at their production in the passing game, they are averaging 27.4 attempts per game and gain an average of 260.8 passing yards. Overall, they hold the 24th spot with 34 points per game.
So far this season, John Rhys Plumlee has thrown for 1572 yards, averaging 14.8 per completion. His completion percentage is 63.1%, and he’s registered 11 touchdowns.
Texas Tech Offense Breakdown
Texas Tech’s rushing attack is ranked 39th in college football with 374 rushing attempts per game. This has translated into an average of 169.7 rushing yards per game, placing them 56th nationally. On average, they are attempting 35.6 passes per game leading to 230.9 passing yards per contest. In terms of scoring, they hold the 48th position, averaging 29.1 points per game.
This season, Behren Morton has been responsible for 1154 passing yards, maintaining an average of 10 per completion. He has a completion rate of 63.9%, having thrown 10 touchdowns.
UCF Team Defense
The Knights defense heads into this week’s matchup with 23 sacks and sitting 1st in QB hurries. So far, they’ve allowed 26.8 points per game (101st). In the pass defense department, they’re 57th nationally, giving up 204.8 passing yards per game. Additionally, when it comes to defending the run, UCF’s defense is allowing 197.4 rushing yards per contest.
Texas Tech Team Defense
The Red Raiders defense will take the field with 18 sacks and are 1st QB hurries. When it comes to points allowed, they’re at 24.4 points per game (89th). Against the pass, the team is 87th in the NCAA, allowing 224.4 passing yards per game. Additionally, Texas Tech’s run defense has 147 rushing yards per contest.
UCF vs Texas Tech Trends
- When playing on the road, UCF has an ATS mark of 1-2 vs. the spread.
- At home, Texas Tech has gone 2-1 against the spread (last three).
- Texas Tech is 6-4 in their last ten games as underdogs.
- Over their last three games as the betting favorite, UCF has an ATS record of 0-3.
Going into this matchup, Texas Tech’s offense has had difficulty converting on third downs. I expect them to struggle once again and like UCF +2.5.
Our model sees the over/under line for this matchup being to low and like the outlook of this game surpassing 60.5 points. The betting model spit out this game finishing with a combined 61 points.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
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