The New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) face off against the Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) on Saturday, December 16th. This game will be played at University Stadium in Albuquerque and televised on ESPN. Both New Mexico State and Fresno State will be looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:45 ET.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Fresno State Bulldogs
The New Mexico State Aggies Look To Bounce Back From A Loss
In New Mexico State’s 49-35 loss to Liberty, the Aggies struggled in the 4th quarter. The teams went into the 4th quarter all tied at 35-35. In New Mexico State’s loss over Liberty, quarterback Diego Pavia had three touchdowns through the air and added one touchdown on the ground. Throughout the game, he threw for a total of 188 yards while achieving a completion rate of 68.8%.
Not only did New Mexico State lose straight-up in this matchup, but they also lost vs. the spread as 10.5-point underdogs. Combining for 84 points, the teams exceeded the line of 57.5 points.
The New Mexico State Aggies take on the Fresno State with a 10-4 record, including 5-3 on the road and 2-1 at home.
New Mexico State’s average scoring differential for the season is +6.9 leading to an ATS mark of 8-3. The Aggies have been favored four times and the underdog in seven games Through 14 games, the average over/under line in New Mexico State’s games is 52 points. Their games have averaged a combined 50.5 points leading to an OU record of 4-7.
The Fresno State Bulldogs Look To Bounce Back From A Loss
After trailing by -10 at halftime, Fresno State could not make a comeback and lost their most recent game 33-18 to San Diego State. Mikey Keene finished with 190 yards against San Diego State while going 21 for 36 for a completion percentage of 58.3%. He ended the game without a rushing or passing touchdown.
The over hit in this game as the pre-game over/under matchup was 46.5. On the point spread, Fresno State was handed a straight-up and ATS loss as they were favored by 4.5.
So far, the Fresno State Bulldogs are 8-4, including going 3-3 on the road and 4-1 at home.
Heading into this week’s matchup with New Mexico State, the Bulldogs have been favored in nine games and the underdog in two. Their ATS mark coming into the game is 4-7. This season, Fresno State holds an over/under record of 7-4. On average, their games have produced a combined total of 54.5 points, with the typical over/under line set at 50.8 points.
New Mexico State Offense Breakdown
New Mexico State comes into the game with an offense averaging 28.7, which places them at 31st in the NCAA rankings. Their passing game has them ranked 43rd nationally, with an average of 224.9 passing yards. In the rushing department, they’re 3rd in the nation, with 485 rushing attempts per game for the season.
This season, Diego Pavia has thrown for 2915 yards while maintaining an average of 13.9 per completion. His completion percentage stands at 61.6%, and he’s recorded 26 touchdowns.
Fresno State Offense Breakdown
The Bulldogs’ heads into the game, averaging 106 rushing yards per game and 3 yards per attempt. Overall, they’re 117th in rushing yards and 117th in passing yards at 273.1 yards per contest. Fresno State is averaging 29.9 points per game, which is 46th in the nation.
Mikey Keene is the team’s leading passer this season, racking up 2596 yards while averaging 10.3 per completion. His completion rate for the year stands at 66.1%, with 21 touchdowns.
New Mexico State Team Defense
New Mexico State’s defense enters the game ranked 82nd in passing yards allowed per game. Opponents throw the ball an average of 31.2 times against the Aggies. They have given up 21.8 PPG, which ranks 94th in college football. In terms of rushing yards allowed, they stand at 72nd in the NCAA.
Fresno State Team Defense
On defense, the Bulldogs defense has 26 sacks and are 1st in QB hurries. So far, teams are scoring 24.6 points per game against them (91st). In terms of pass defense, they’re ranked 79th in the NCAA, allowing 216.9 passing yards per game. Moreover, Fresno State’s run defense is allowing 169.2 rushing yards per contest.
New Mexico State vs Fresno State Trends
- On the road, New Mexico State has gone 4-1 vs. the spread.
- Fresno State is 0-3 ATS in their last home games.
- Bulldogs is 3-2 in their last five games as underdogs.
- The previous ten time that New Mexico State was favored, they are 8-2 against the spread.
My money is on New Mexico State to cover the spread at -3 for this matchup. New Mexico State had a solid performance in their last game, especially in the running game against Liberty. I believe they’ll maintain that form this week, so I’m betting on New Mexico State to cover before kickoff.
With the over/under line at 51, I’m backing the over for this game. Fresno State games have produced an average combined score of 54.5 points, and I expect this game to go over 51.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.