Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Prediction

NFL Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 1/26/2025

The Buffalo Bills will face off against the Kansas City Chiefs at 6:30 ET on Sunday, January 26th. This matchup is being played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

The Chiefs are favored on the money line at -129 as they host the Bills in the AFC Championship. The game, set for 6:30 ET on Sunday, January 26th, will be televised on CBS. The Chiefs are -2 point favorites, and the over/under line is at 47.5 points.

  • Date: Sunday, January 26th
  • Time: 6:30 ET
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
  • TV: CBS

Bills vs Chiefs

buffalo bills nfl

After finishing the regular season 13-4, the Bills bounced back from two straight losses by beating the Jaguars 47-10 in week 3. Buffalo was a 4-point favorite and easily covered the spread, with the 57 combined points going over the 46.5-point line. Before that, they lost to the Ravens and Texans in weeks 4 and 5.

Buffalo went 5-1 in division games and 11-3 in the AFC, putting them 2nd in the conference. They were 10-0 at home but just 5-4 on the road. Heading into week 3, the Bills were 3rd in our power rankings, with an average scoring margin of +9.6 points per game. They were 12-7 against the spread and had a 9-5 ATS record as favorites.

The Chiefs finished the regular season 15-2, putting them first in the AFC. They went 5-1 in division games and 11-2 against the conference. After a week 18 loss to the Broncos, Kansas City bounced back with a 23-14 win over the Texans in the divisional round. They couldn’t cover the 9.5-point spread, but the 37 combined points fell short of the 41.5-point line.

Heading into week 3, the Chiefs were 6th in our power rankings. They have a +3.8 scoring margin and are 7-10-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 7-11, with the under hitting in two straight games.

Bills Injury Report

  • Shane Buechele – Neck (Out)
  • Tommy Doyle – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Baylon Spector – Calf (Out)
  • Travis Clayton – Shoulder (Out)
  • Taylor Rapp – Hip (Questionable)
  • Christian Benford – Concussion (Questionable)

Chiefs Injury Report

  • Marlon Tuipulotu – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Jody Fortson – Knee (Out)
  • Mecole Hardman – Knee (Questionable)
  • BJ Thompson – Chest (Out)
  • Baylor Cupp – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Jared Wiley – Knee (Out)
  • Skyy Moore – Core Muscle (Out)
  • Jack Cochrane – Ankle (Out)
  • Rashee Rice – Knee (Out)
  • Spencer Shrader – Right Hamstring (Out)
  • McKade Mettauer – Knee (Out)

Bills Offense Breakdown

Josh Allen returned under center for the Bills in the divisional round after missing week 18, finishing 16/22 for 127 yards against the Ravens. Buffalo leaned on their run game, with James Cook rushing for 67 yards on 17 carries. Khalil Shakir led the team in receiving, with 6 catches for 67 yards.

Buffalo ranks 2nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 30.7, and sits 10th in total yards. Despite ranking 27th in passing attempts, they are 11th in passing yards per game. The Bills are 7th in rushing attempts and 9th in rushing yards per game.

Chiefs Offense Breakdown

kansas city chiefs

Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 23-14 win over the Texans in the Divisional Round, throwing for 177 yards and a touchdown on 16/25 passing, with a passer rating of 98. He connected with Travis Kelce 7 times for 117 yards and a touchdown. Kareem Hunt had 44 rushing yards on 8 carries. Kansas City scored 10 points in the 4th quarter but struggled on 3rd down, converting just 4/11 attempts.

Before Mahomes’ return, the Chiefs were shut out in Week 18, losing 38-0 to the Broncos. Carson Wentz threw for 98 yards on 10/17 passing, while Carson Steele led the team with 25 rushing yards. Nikko Remigio had 2 catches for 48 yards.

Bills Team Defense

The Bills’ defense gave up 176 rushing yards on 30 attempts in their 27-25 win over the Ravens. Buffalo’s defense allowed 240 passing yards on just 18 completions, giving up 9.6 yards per attempt through the air. Despite their struggles against the run, the Bills did force one interception and recorded two sacks.

Buffalo allowed the Ravens to convert on 70% of their third down attempts and finish with 416 total yards in the game. The Bills also allowed two passing touchdowns and a 72% completion percentage to Baltimore.

Chiefs Team Defense

The Chiefs’ defense was able to get to the quarterback consistently in their most recent game, coming away with a massive 8 sacks. Despite giving up 149 rushing yards on 29 attempts, they held the Texans to just 14 points in their 23-14 win. In the passing game, the Chiefs allowed only 187 yards and no touchdowns, while Houston converted 58.8% of their third down attempts.

They also did a good job of hitting the quarterback, winning the QB hit differential by six and the tackles for loss differential by three.

Bills vs Chiefs Trends

  • Through their last three road contests, the Bills offense has averaged 35 points per game while allowing an average of 36. Buffalo posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
  • Kansas City has played well in their previous three home games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 16 points per game while allowing 18. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
  • The last ten games that Buffalo was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 5-5 straight up.
  • Kansas City has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Bills vs Chiefs Prediction

Our pick vs. the spread for this week three post-season matchup between the Bills and Chiefs is to take the Bills to cover as road underdogs. The point spread lines have the Bills at +2, and with our projected final score being 27-25 in favor of Buffalo, there is some good value in taking the Bills to cover.

For an over/under pick, we really like the over, with a projected combined score of 52 points and the O/U line sitting at 47.5 points.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.