Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints NFL Betting Prediction

NFL Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Prediction 10/13/2024

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face off against the New Orleans Saints at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 13th. This matchup is being played at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

FOX will broadcast the week six matchup between the Buccaneers and Saints at 1:00 ET. The Saints are the underdog at +111 on the money line, while the Buccaneers are favored at -133. Tampa Bay is -2 on the point spread, and the over/under line is 42.5 points. The game, an NFC South matchup, will be played at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

  • Date: Sunday, October 13th
  • Time: 1:00 ET
  • Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
  • TV: FOX

Buccaneers vs Saints

tampa bay buccaneers nfl

Following their week 5 loss to the Falcons, the Buccaneers now sit at 3-2, putting them 2nd in the NFC South. Tampa Bay is 0-1 in division games but has a 3-1 record against the conference. Our projections give them a 48.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 30.6% chance of winning the division. Heading into week 6, they rank 15th in our NFL power rankings.

So far, the over has hit in two straight Bucs games, including week 5, when they and the Falcons combined for 66 points. Tampa Bay’s O/U record is 3-2 this season. Their average scoring margin is +2.6 points per game, and they are 3-2 against the spread.

After starting the season with two straight wins, the Saints have now dropped three in a row, including a 26-13 loss to the Chiefs in week 5. This puts New Orleans at 2-3, leaving them 3rd in the NFC South. Despite their losing streak, they still have a +8.8 scoring margin and rank 10th in our power rankings. We give them a 40.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 24.6% chance of winning the division.

New Orleans is 3-2 against the spread this season, covering in two of their three losses. Their O/U record is also 3-2, with their games averaging 47.2 points (the O/U line has averaged 44.6 points). In week 5, the Saints and Chiefs combined for 39 points, falling short of the 43-point line.

Buccaneers Injury Report

  • Markees Watts – Quad (Out)
  • Silas Dzansi – Knee (Out)
  • Evan Deckers – Hamstring (Out)
  • Jalen McMillan – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Calijah Kancey – Calf (Questionable)
  • Trey Palmer – Concussion (Questionable)
  • SirVocea Dennis – Shoulder (Out)
  • Kameron Johnson – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Chase Edmonds – Knee (Out)
  • Jordan Whitehead – Groin (Questionable)
  • Sua Opeta – Knee (Out)
  • Cody Thompson – Shoulder (Out)
  • Earnest Brown – Ribs (Out)
  • Rakim Jarrett – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Luke Goedeke – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Bryce Hall – Ankle (Out)
  • Antoine Winfield Jr. – Foot (Questionable)

Saints Injury Report

  • Nephi Sewell – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Spencer Rattler – Gameday Inactive (Out)
  • Payton Turner – Knee (Out)
  • Pete Werner – Hamstring (Out)
  • Willie Gay Jr. – Hand (Out)
  • Justin Herron – Knee (Out)
  • Cesar Ruiz – Knee (Out)
  • Shane Lemieux – Ankle (Out)
  • Ryan Ramczyk – Knee (Out)
  • Derek Carr – Oblique (Questionable)
  • Taysom Hill – Ribs (Out)
  • Tanoh Kpassagnon – Achilles (Out)
  • Will Harris – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Erik McCoy – Groin (Out)
  • Kendre Miller – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Rejzohn Wright – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Khristian Boyd – Gameday Inactive (Out)
  • Camron Peterson – Undisclosed (Out)

Buccaneers Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 6, the Buccaneers rank 6th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 25.4 points per game, which is 8th in the NFL. They are 17th in passing attempts and 15th in passing yards per game, with 213. On the ground, they rank 20th in both rushing attempts and rushing yards per game, averaging 108.8. Tampa Bay has been strong on 3rd down, converting 44.8% of their attempts, which ranks 7th in the league, and they are 6th in 1st quarter scoring. However, they are 24th in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 4th in red zone attempts.

In week 5, Baker Mayfield posted a passer rating of 137, throwing for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns on 19/24 passing. Chris Godwin led the team with 5 catches for 64 yards, while Rachaad White had 72 rushing yards on 10 carries. The Bucs scored 30 points against the Falcons, with 24 of those coming in the first half. They converted 6 of 11 3rd downs and went 2/3 in the red zone.

Saints Offense Breakdown

new orleans saints

Heading into week 6, the Saints rank 7th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28 points per game, which is 4th in the NFL. They’ve been strong on 3rd down, converting 50.9% of their attempts, and they rank 5th in red zone attempts. However, they’ve struggled to convert those opportunities, with a red zone conversion rate of just 11.8%, placing them 26th in the league.

Derek Carr threw for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 5, completing 18 of 28 passes, but he also had an interception. Alvin Kamara was held to 26 yards on 11 carries, while Rashid Shaheed led the team with 86 receiving yards on 4 catches, including a touchdown.

Buccaneers Team Defense

In their most recent game, the Buccaneers’ defense gave up 550 yards in a 36-30 overtime loss to the Falcons. Despite allowing just 18 rushing attempts, they still gave up 477 yards through the air. The Falcons completed 42 passes against them, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, and threw for four touchdowns.

Tampa Bay’s defense did manage to come up with four sacks and one interception. Opposing quarterbacks completed 71.2% of their passes and the Buccaneers allowed the Falcons to convert on 42.9% of their third down attempts.

Saints Team Defense

In their 26-13 loss to the Chiefs, the Saints’ defense allowed 460 yards and struggled to stop the run, giving up 139 rushing yards on 39 attempts. Despite this, they did not allow a passing touchdown and came away with one interception. The Chiefs found success through the air, completing 71.8% of their passes for 321 yards.

On third downs, the Saints allowed the Chiefs to convert 42.9% of their chances. New Orleans did manage to come up with two sacks and won the tackles for loss battle by one.

Buccaneers vs Saints Trends

  • When looking at their past ten road matchups, Tampa Bay has an ATS record of 7-3 while averaging 23 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
  • Across their last five home contests, New Orleans has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 25 points per game.
  • In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Saints have a straight up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 2-1.
  • Tampa Bay has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.

Buccaneers vs Saints Prediction

For this week six matchup between the Buccaneers and Saints, we have the Saints coming out on top by a score of 18-17. With the point spread sitting at -2 in favor of the Buccaneers, we are going with the Saints to cover as home underdogs.

As for an over/under pick, we like the under, with a projected combined score of 35 points. The current O/U line is 42.5 points, giving us a good amount of value on the under.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.