Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots NFL Betting Prediction

NFL Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction 10/6/2024

The Miami Dolphins will face off against the New England Patriots at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 6th. This matchup is being played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.

With the Patriots as -112 money line underdogs, they will host the Dolphins at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 6th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The Dolphins are slightly favored with a money line of -108, and FOX is handling the television coverage. The Patriots are 3-0, and the Dolphins are 0-3 heading into this week five AFC East matchup. The Patriots are -1 point favorites, and the over/under line is at 35.5 points.

  • Date: Sunday, October 6th
  • Time: 1:00 ET
  • Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
  • TV: FOX

Dolphins vs Patriots

miami dolphins nfl

The Dolphins fell to the Titans 32-12, dropping their record to 1-3 for the season. Miami came into the game as 2.5-point favorites, but their 19-point loss meant they not only lost straight-up but also against the spread. The combined 43 points easily surpassed the over/under line of 37.5 points.

Miami kept things close early, with the score tied 0-0 after the 1st quarter. However, the Titans took control in the 2nd quarter, and by halftime, the Dolphins were trailing 9-3. Miami added a field goal in the 3rd quarter, but Tennessee responded with a touchdown to extend their lead, making it tough for Miami to come back. The Dolphins did find the endzone twice in the 4th quarter to make the scoreline more respectable.

The Patriots are now 1-3 after a 30-13 loss to the 49ers. New England fell behind early, with the 49ers leading 6-0 after the 1st quarter. The Patriots added a field goal in the 2nd quarter, but San Francisco added two touchdowns to lead 20-3 at halftime. New England did find the endzone in the 3rd quarter with a touchdown from Austin Hooper, but the 49ers responded with a touchdown of their own to keep the game out of reach.

In the 4th quarter, the Patriots added another touchdown with a pass from Jacoby Brissett to Antonio Gibson, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the 17-point deficit. The over/under line for the game was 42 points, and the teams combined for 43 points.“`

Dolphins Injury Report

  • Patrick McMorris – Foot (Out)
  • Tahj Washington – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Cameron Goode – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Cam Smith – Hamstring (Out)
  • Grant DuBose – Shoulder (Out)
  • Grayson Murphy – Knee (Out)
  • Jaelan Phillips – Knee (Questionable)
  • Anthony Schwartz – Knee (Out)
  • Kion Smith – Knee (Out)
  • Skylar Thompson – Ribs (Questionable)
  • Tua Tagovailoa – Concussion (Out)
  • Cam Brown – Knee (Out)
  • Odell Beckham Jr. – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Raheem Mostert – Chest (Questionable)
  • Jordan Poyer – Shin (Questionable)
  • Terron Armstead – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Kendall Fuller – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Jeff Wilson Jr. – Knee (Questionable)
  • David Long Jr. – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • River Cracraft – Upper Body (Out)
  • Bradley Chubb – Knee (Out)
  • Isaiah Wynn – Undisclosed (Out)

Patriots Injury Report

  • Marte Mapu – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Caedan Wallace – Ankle (Questionable)
  • JaQuae Jackson – Knee (Out)
  • Jake Andrews – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Alex Austin – Ankle (Out)
  • Sione Takitaki – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Anfernee Jennings – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Kyle Dugger – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Vederian Lowe – Knee (Questionable)
  • Cole Strange – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Christian Barmore – Blood Clot (Out)
  • Armon Watts – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Oshane Ximines – Knee (Out)
  • Michael Jordan – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Kendrick Bourne – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Chukwuma Okorafor – Commissioner Exempt List (Out)
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley – Pectoral (Out)
  • David Andrews – Shoulder (Questionable)

Dolphins Offense Breakdown

The Dolphins’ offense struggled to sustain drives in their 31-12 loss to the Titans, picking up just 13 first downs and going 1-of-6 in the red zone. Miami managed only 78 yards passing, with quarterback Tyler Huntley throwing for 96 yards and going 63% on his passes. Huntley was also Miami’s leading rusher, gaining 40 yards on eight attempts, including a 20-yard touchdown run.

Miami’s running game produced 106 yards on 30 attempts. Jaylen Waddle led the Dolphins with 36 receiving yards. The Dolphins were particularly ineffective on third down, converting only 16.7% of their third-down attempts.

Patriots Offense Breakdown

new england patriots

The Patriots’ offense struggled in their 30-13 loss to the 49ers, managing just 12 first downs and 143 yards passing. New England’s running game was also ineffective, with only 73 yards on 24 attempts. Jacoby Brissett was sacked six times and finished with 168 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

Rhamondre Stevenson led the team with 43 rushing yards, while Antonio Gibson was the top receiver with 67 yards, including a 50-yard reception. The Patriots converted only 31.2% of their third down attempts and averaged just 4.5 yards per pass attempt.

Dolphins Team Defense

In their 31-12 loss to the Titans, the Dolphins’ defense gave up just 102 yards through the air. However, they struggled to stop the run, allowing 142 rushing yards on 40 attempts. Miami’s defense was tough to move the ball against in the passing game, giving up just 12 completions and holding Tennessee to 4.9 yards per attempt.

Miami’s defense also came up with one interception and limited the Titans to a 16.7% conversion rate on third down. They also managed one sack and had one more tackle for loss than the Titans.

Patriots Team Defense

In their 30-13 loss to the 49ers, the Patriots’ defense allowed 431 total yards. They struggled to defend the run, giving up 148 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Against the pass, they allowed just 15 completions but gave up 283 yards, including one touchdown and a big 10.5 yards per attempt figure.

New England’s defense forced one interception and held the 49ers to a 55.6% completion rate. However, they allowed San Francisco to convert on 53.8% of their third down attempts and had just one sack, losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

Dolphins vs Patriots Trends

  • Across their five previous road games, Miami has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 2-3 while averaging 21 points per game.
  • Across their last five home contests, New England has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 15 points per game.
  • Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Miami has an ATS mark of 0-3 while going 0-3 straight up.
  • Going back to their previous five games as the favorite, New England has an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 1-4 straight up.

Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction

Our model has the Patriots coming out on top by a score of 22-16 in their week five matchup against the Dolphins. Even though the Dolphins are the slight favorites at +1, we are going with the Patriots to not only win but cover the spread as home favorites.

For this game, we have a point-spread pick, and we also like the over for this one. The current O/U line is just 35.5 points, and our projections have these teams combining for 38 points.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.