The New England Patriots will face off against the Buffalo Bills at 4:25 ET on Sunday, December 22nd. This matchup is being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park.

The Patriots are +652 on the money line as they take on the Bills in a week 16 AFC East matchup. The Bills are heavily favored at -999 on the money line and -14 on the point spread. The game, which is being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, is set for 4:25 ET, and CBS is handling the television coverage. The over/under line is at 46.5 points.

• Date: Sunday, December 22nd
• Time: 4:25 ET
• Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park
• TV: CBS

Patriots vs Bills

Heading into week 16, the Patriots have dropped four straight games, including a 30-17 loss to the Cardinals in week 15. This leaves New England at 3-11, and they currently sit 26th in our power rankings. They have a -7.1 average scoring margin and are 5-8-1 against the spread, having been underdogs in all of their games this season.

With the Patriots out of playoff contention, they’ll look to play spoiler on the road against the Bills in week 16. New England is 2-6 on the road this year, with one of those wins coming against the Bears in week 10.

With an 11-3 record, the Bills sit atop the AFC East and rank 2nd in our NFL power rankings. Our projections give Buffalo a 100% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. They are 3-0 in division games and 7-2 in conference play. The Bills are 6-0 at home this season but have gone 5-3 on the road.

Buffalo has an average scoring margin of +9.6 points per game and is 9-5 against the spread. They are 7-3 ATS as favorites and 2-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 9-5, with the over hitting in their last two games. The average O/U line in Bills games is 47 points, while the average combined score is 53.9 points.

Patriots Injury Report

• JaQuae Jackson – Knee (Out)
• Caedan Wallace – Ankle (Questionable)
• Curtis Jacobs – Head (Out)
• Javon Baker – Concussion (Questionable)
• Cole Strange – Knee (Questionable)
• Jake Andrews – Undisclosed (Out)
• Jaquelin Roy – Foot (Out)
• Christian Elliss – Head (Questionable)
• David Andrews – Shoulder (Out)
• Oshane Ximines – Knee (Out)
• Ja’Whaun Bentley – Pectoral (Out)
• Chukwuma Okorafor – Commissioner Exempt List (Out)

Bills Injury Report

• Travis Clayton – Shoulder (Out)
• Tylan Grable – Groin (Questionable)
• Cole Bishop – Lower Leg (Questionable)
• Tommy Doyle – Undisclosed (Out)
• Spencer Brown – Head (Questionable)
• Shane Buechele – Neck (Out)
• Damar Hamlin – Back/ribs (Questionable)
• Casey Toohill – Ribs (Questionable)
• Taylor Rapp – Neck/shoulder (Questionable)
• Curtis Samuel – Shoulder (Questionable)
• Rasul Douglas – Knee (Questionable)
• Matt Milano – Groin (Questionable)

Patriots Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 16, the Patriots rank 26th in our offensive power rankings. They are 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 17, and 29th in yards per game, with 292.4. New England ranks 19th in passing attempts per game but is last in the league in passing yards, averaging 173.1 per game. They are 18th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game, with 119.3. The Patriots have struggled on third down, converting just 34.3% of their attempts, which ranks 27th in the NFL. However, they are 9th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 14th in red zone attempts.

Drake Maye threw for 202 yards on 19/23 passing in week 15, with one touchdown and one interception. New England scored 14 points in the 4th quarter after being held to 3 points through the first three quarters. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing with 69 yards on 13 carries, while Kendrick Bourne had 3 catches for 44 yards. The Patriots failed to convert on any of their 6 third-down attempts but scored on 2 of their 3 red zone trips.

Bills Offense Breakdown

Josh Allen has been on a tear over the past three weeks, posting passer ratings of 122 in week 15, 117 in week 14, and 141 in week 13. In his most recent outing against the Lions, he threw for 362 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception. Buffalo’s offensive line has done a great job keeping him upright, as he hasn’t been sacked in the last three games.

James Cook has led the Bills’ rushing attack, recording 105 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries in week 15. In week 13, he had 107 yards on the ground. Ty Johnson led the team in receiving in week 15, with 5 catches for 114 yards against Detroit.

Patriots Team Defense

In their 30-17 loss to the Cardinals, the Patriots’ defense allowed Arizona to convert on 66.7% of their third down attempts. New England gave up 395 total yards, with 232 coming through the air, and struggled to defend the run, allowing 163 yards on 32 attempts (5.1 per attempt). The Patriots didn’t record any sacks and allowed Arizona to complete 78.1% of their passes.

Despite their struggles, the Patriots did keep the Cardinals out of the endzone through the air, as Arizona didn’t have any passing touchdowns. However, New England’s defense was on the field for 33:16 minutes and allowed Arizona to control the time of possession.

Bills Team Defense

Despite giving up 473 passing yards to the Lions, the Bills’ defense allowed just 48 yards rushing on 15 attempts in their 48-42 win over Detroit. Buffalo’s defense struggled to stop the pass, giving up five passing touchdowns, but they did manage three sacks and held the Lions to a 46.2% third-down conversion rate.

The Bills allowed Detroit to throw for 8 yards per attempt and finish with a 64.4% completion percentage. Buffalo’s defense will be looking to improve in their next game after giving up over 500 yards of total offense.

Patriots vs Bills Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the Patriots offense has averaged 16 points per game while allowing an average of 23. New England posted an overall record of 3-7 while going 5-5 ATS.
• In their last five home games, Buffalo has averaged 34 points per game while allowing 27. The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1 while going 4-1 vs. the spread.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Patriots have gone 2-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-4.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Bills have gone 7-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 9-1.

Patriots vs Bills Prediction

Our pick against the spread for this week 16 matchup between the Patriots and Bills is to take Buffalo to cover. Despite the point spread being +14 in favor of the Patriots, we have Buffalo winning by a score of 30-13.

For those looking to make an over/under bet, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 43 points and the O/U line sitting at 46.5 points.

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All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

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* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.