Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears NFL Betting Prediction

NFL Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Prediction 11/17/2024

The Green Bay Packers will face off against the Chicago Bears at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th. This matchup is being played at Soldier Field in Chicago.

The Packers are favored on the road in their week 11 matchup against the Bears, with FOX set to broadcast this NFC North game at 1:00 ET. The Packers’ money line odds are -269, while the Bears are at +219. Green Bay is favored by -6.5 points, and the over/under line is 41.5 points.

  • Date: Sunday, November 17th
  • Time: 1:00 ET
  • Location: Soldier Field, Chicago
  • TV: FOX

Packers vs Bears

green bay packers nfl

Heading into week 11, the Packers are 5th in our NFL power rankings and have a 77.5% chance of making the playoffs. However, they have a 0-2 record in the NFC North and are 3rd in the division. Green Bay is 6-3 overall, with a 3-2 record at home and a 3-1 record on the road.

After three straight wins, the Packers lost 24-14 to the Lions in week 9. This includes a 30-27 win over the Jaguars in week 8 and a 24-22 win over the Texans in week 7. Against the spread, Green Bay is 4-5 this season and has failed to cover in three straight games.

The Bears have now dropped three straight games, including a 19-3 home loss to the Patriots in week 10. Chicago was a 6-point favorite in this game but couldn’t get the win, bringing their record to 4-5. They are 4-1 at home this season but remain winless on the road, going 0-4. The Bears are currently 4th in the NFC North and 9th in the conference standings.

Heading into week 11, our power rankings have the Bears 23rd in the NFL, and they have just a 4.3% chance of making the playoffs. Their O/U record is 3-6, with the under hitting in three straight games. Chicago is 5-4 against the spread this season but has failed to cover in three consecutive games.

Packers Injury Report

  • Evan Williams – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Colby Wooden – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Luke Musgrave – Ankle (Out)
  • Josh Myers – Wrist (Questionable)
  • MarShawn Lloyd – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Tyler Davis – Shoulder (Out)
  • AJ Dillon – Neck (Out)
  • Jaire Alexander – Knee (Questionable)

Bears Injury Report

  • Ian Wheeler – Knee (Out)
  • Kiran Amegadjie – Calf (Questionable)
  • Noah Sewell – Knee (Questionable)
  • Darnell Wright – Knee (Questionable)
  • Braxton Jones – Knee (Questionable)
  • Jaquan Brisker – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Jaylon Jones – Shoulder (Out)
  • Bill Murray – Chest (Out)
  • Darrell Taylor – Knee (Questionable)
  • Stephen Carlson – Collarbone (Out)
  • Nsimba Webster – Groin (Out)
  • Teven Jenkins – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Andrew Billings – Pectoral (Out)
  • Patrick Scales – Back (Out)
  • Nate Davis – Back (Questionable)
  • Tommy Sweeney – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Tarvarius Moore – Concussion (Questionable)

Packers Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 11, the Packers are 7th in the NFL in points per game (25.6) and 3rd in yards per game, averaging 390. They are 7th in passing yards per game (235.2) and 17th in passing attempts. On the ground, they rank 5th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game, with 154.8. Despite being 6th in red zone attempts, they are 16th in conversion percentage, and they rank 18th in 3rd-down conversion percentage.

In week 9, Jordan Love threw for 273 yards, completing 23 of 39 passes, but he didn’t have a touchdown and threw an interception. Jayden Reed led the team with 113 receiving yards on 5 catches, while Josh Jacobs rushed for 95 yards on 13 carries. The Packers scored 8 points in the 4th quarter against the Lions, after being held scoreless in the 2nd quarter.

Bears Offense Breakdown

chicago bears

Heading into week 11, the Bears are 24th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 19.4 points per game (21st) and 277.7 yards per game (30th). They rank 13th in passing attempts but are 30th in passing yards, with 169.6 per game. On the ground, Chicago is 15th in rushing attempts and 24th in rushing yards, averaging 108.1 per game. They’ve struggled on third down, converting just 28.7% of their attempts, but they’re 3rd in red zone conversion percentage.

Caleb Williams has been sacked 18 times over the last three games, including 9 times in week 10 against the Patriots, when he threw for 120 yards on 16/30 passing. The Bears were held scoreless in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters in week 10, converting just 1 of 14 third downs. D’Andre Swift led the team with 59 rushing yards on 16 carries, and Keenan Allen had 5 catches for 44 yards.

Packers Team Defense

In their 24-14 loss to the Lions, the Packers’ defense allowed 18 completions for 137 yards through the air. The Packers gave up 124 rushing yards on 32 attempts, with Detroit finding some success on the ground. Overall, the Packers limited the Lions to 261 total yards, but still came out on the losing end.

Despite their struggles against the run, the Packers’ defense held the Lions to a 33.3% third-down conversion rate. They also allowed just one touchdown and pressured the quarterback with one sack and two more hits.

Bears Team Defense

In their 19-3 loss to the Patriots, the Bears’ defense allowed just 184 passing yards on 15 completions. However, they struggled against the run, giving up 144 yards on 35 attempts. Chicago’s offense managed only 3 points in the game, and the defense also forced one interception and limited New England to a 35.7% conversion rate on third down.

Despite allowing just 184 passing yards, the Bears’ defense only managed one sack and were unable to generate consistent pressure, as they lost the tackles for loss battle by a significant margin. New England finished with 328 total yards, and Chicago gave up a key touchdown in the game on the ground.

Packers vs Bears Trends

  • Across their ten previous road games, Green Bay has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 7-3 while averaging 29 points per game.
  • In their last three games at home, the Bears have a straight up record of 0-3 while going 0-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 13 points per game in this stretch.
  • In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Bears have a straight up record of 1-4 and an ATS mark of 2-3.
  • Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Packers have an overall record of 4-1 while going 2-3 against the spread.

Packers vs Bears Prediction

For this week 11 matchup between the Bears and Packers, we have the Bears coming out on top by a score of 26-19. With this projected final score, we are recommending taking the Bears to cover the spread as home underdogs. Currently, the point spread line has the Bears at +6.5, and we have them covering at this number.

As for an over/under pick, we really like the over with a projected 45 combined points. The line is currently at 41.5 points, making the over a great value pick for this matchup.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.