The North Carolina Tar Heels (24-6) travel to face off against the Duke Blue Devils (24-6) on Saturday, March 9th. This game will be played at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham and televised on ESPN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 6:30 ET.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils
The North Carolina Tar Heels Are Coming Off A Win
North Carolina heads into this game as the underdog, a role they have played just twice this season, going 1-1. The Tar Heels have been the favorite in 28 of their 30 games and have gone 23-5 in those contests.
On the road, North Carolina has been excellent, going 8-4 this season with an average scoring margin of +4.6 points per game. Over their last 10 road games, the Tar Heels have gone 8-2.
North Carolina has an overall ATS record of 17-13 this season, including a road ATS mark of 7-5. However, the Tar Heels have gone just 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games as the underdog and are just 1-4 vs. the spread as the underdog in their last 5 games.
So far this season, the over/under record for North Carolina games is 14-16, and today’s line of 149.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games (152.8). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 143 points, which is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year (151.3).
The Duke Blue Devils Are Coming Off A Win
Coming into today’s game, Duke has been the favorite in 27 of their 30 games this season, going 23-4 in those contests. At home, the Blue Devils have been even better, going 16-2 compared to 7-4 on the road. Over their last 10 games at home, the Blue Devils have gone 9-1.
On the year, Duke has gone 24-6 overall, including a 14-4 mark in Atlantic Coast Conference play. They come into today’s game on a three-game winning streak, with their most recent win coming against North Carolina State by a score of 79-64.
When looking at Duke’s ATS record this season, they are 17-12. At home, their ATS mark is 12-6. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Blue Devils are 9-1 vs. the spread. In their last 3 home games, Duke is 3-0 ATS.
On the season, the over/under record for Duke games is 12-16-1, and today’s line of 149.5 is higher than the average OU line in their games (146.6). So far, 17 of their games have finished with less points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 135 points, which is lower than today’s OU line.
North Carolina Offense Breakdown
North Carolina’s offense had a good outing, putting up 84 points against Notre Dame. They achieved a 45.1% field goal percentage and went 9/15 from the free-throw line. The top scorer for the Tar Heels was RJ Davis with 22 points, while Armando Bacot also chipped in with 14 points.
| Name | PPG | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Davis (G) | 21.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| Armando Bacot (F) | 14.0 | 10.2 | 1.6 |
| Harrison Ingram (F) | 12.5 | 9.2 | 2.2 |
Duke Offense Breakdown
Duke’s offense is coming off a good game, putting up 79 points vs. North Carolina State. Overall, they hit 47.1% of their shots from the field and went 6/9 from the free-throw line. On the offensive front, the Blue Devils have a season-long field goal percentage of 48%, ranking 46th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 42nd in terms of percentage and 89th in three-pointers made.
| Name | PPG | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Filipowski (C) | 16.5 | 8.1 | 2.9 |
| Jeremy Roach (G) | 14.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Jared McCain (G) | 13.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 |
North Carolina Team Defense
At this time, the Tar Heels’ defense is positioned 113rd in the country, permitting 69.8 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, North Carolina’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 40.5% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 30.3% this season.
Duke Team Defense
At present, the Blue Devils’ defense is nationally ranked 46th, allowing 66.7 points per game. The Duke defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 64 points and allowed North Carolina State to connect on 3 threes.
Tar Heels vs Blue Devils Trends
- Across their five previous road games, North Carolina has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 3-2 while averaging 71 points per game.
- Through their last ten home contests, the Blue Devils offense has averaged 77 points per game while allowing an average of 68. Duke posted an overall record of 7-3 while going 4-5 ATS.
- Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Tar Heels have a straight up record of 1-9. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-9.
- In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Blue Devils have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 5-0 in these scenarios.
Tar Heels vs Blue Devils Prediction
We’re calling a win for the Blue Devils, with a final score of 75-68, and we’re taking them to cover the spread. Our recommendation is to bet on the Blue Devils at -4.5.
As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 149.5, and our model projects the Tar Heels and Blue Devils to reach a combined total of 143 points. Our bet is on taking the under.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:March 9, 2024 Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels