Pepperdine Waves vs Saint Mary's Gaels NCAAB Betting Prediction

Pepperdine Waves vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Prediction 2/15/2024

The Pepperdine Waves (10-16) travel to face off against the Saint Mary’s Gaels (20-6) on Thursday, February 15th. This game will be played at University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga and televised on CBSS. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 11:00 ET.

Pepperdine Waves vs Saint Mary’s Gaels

The Pepperdine Waves Are Coming Off A Win

Pepperdine has struggled on the road this season, going just 2-8 away from home. They have a scoring margin of -12.1 points per game on the road compared to +2.4 at home. Their last game was a 72-63 win over Loyola Marymount.

As an underdog, the Waves are just 2-12 this season compared to 6-4 as the favorite. So far, they have gone 3-8 in West Coast Conference games and are 10-16 overall. For the season, they have gone 7-8 in non-conference games.

As the underdog, Pepperdine has gone 4-10 vs. the spread this season and just 3-7 in their last 10 games as the road team. However, they have gone 2-1 vs. the spread in their last 3 games as the underdog.

Pepperdine’s over/under record this season is 10-12-2, and today’s line of 132.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (150.5). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 156 points, which is higher than today’s line of 132.5. So far, 19 of their games have finished with more points than 132.5.

The Saint Mary’s Gaels Are Coming Off A Win

Coming into tonight’s game, Saint Mary’s has won 12 straight games, and they are 11-0 in West Coast Conference play. On the season, they are 20-6, and they have gone 10-6 at home.

So far, the Gaels have been favored in 22 of their 26 games, going 16-6 in those games. Their average scoring margin at home is +12.1, and their record over their last 10 home games is 8-2.

When looking at Saint Mary’s ATS record this season, they are currently 13-12. At home, they have gone 7-9 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Gaels have a mark of 6-4.

Today’s over/under line of 132.5 is similar to the average over/under line in Saint Mary’s games this season (132.8). Currently, their over/under record is 12-13. In their last three games, the over/under record is 0-3 and the average scoring total in those games is 126 points.

Pepperdine Offense Breakdown

In their previous game, the Waves’ offense finished with 72 points, which is right in line with their current average of 72.5 points per contest. The team’s top scorer is Michael Ajayi, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 17.2, while Houston Mallette also carries a PPG average of 15.7 into the game.

Michael Ajayi (G) 17.2 9.5 1.8
Houston Mallette (G) 15.7 3.3 2.5
Jevon Porter (F) 14.9 6.1 1.3

Saint Mary’s Offense Breakdown

In their latest game, Saint Mary’s offense put up 76 points against Portland. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 40.6% and made 14 threes. Aidan Mahaney is currently the leading scorer for the team, entering today’s matchup with an average of 14. Meanwhile, Augustas Marciulionis also brings a PPG average of 11.8 into the game.

Aidan Mahaney (G) 14.0 2.3 2.5
Augustas Marciulionis (G) 11.8 3.0 4.7
Mitchell Saxen (C) 10.9 7.5 1.3

Pepperdine Team Defense

Coming into today’s game, the Pepperdine defense is giving up an average of 74.1 points per contest. In their previous game vs. Loyola Marymount, the Lions finished with a field goal percentage of 41% and a total of 63 points vs. Pepperdine.

Saint Mary’s Team Defense

Currently, the Gaels’ defense holds the 2nd rank in the nation, allowing 57.7 points per game. So far, the Saint Mary’s defense is giving up an average of 6.2 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 9.5 times per game (385th).

Waves vs Gaels Trends

  • Although Pepperdine has a straight up record of 2-8 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 3-7. The team averaged 71 points per game in these games.
  • Across their last five home contests, Saint Mary’s has been good against the spread posting a mark of 5-0. Their overall mark in these games was 5-0, while averaging 74 points per game.
  • In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Waves have a straight up record of 2-3 and an ATS mark of 3-2.
  • As the betting favorite, the Gaels have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 5-0.

Waves vs Gaels Prediction

For a pick on the point-spread in this Gaels vs. Waves matchup, our bet is to grab the Waves at +20.5. Even though our projections have the Gaels winning 76-70, we see the Waves as the play on the point-spread.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 132.5, and our model projects the Waves and Gaels to reach a combined total of 146 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.