Saint Mary’s Gaels vs Pepperdine Waves NCAAB Betting Prediction

Saint Mary’s Gaels vs Pepperdine Waves Prediction 2/29/2024

The Saint Mary’s Gaels (23-6) travel to face off against the Pepperdine Waves (12-18) on Thursday, February 29th. This game will be played at Firestone Fieldhouse in Malibu and televised on CBSS. Saint Mary’s is coming off a win in their previous game, while Pepperdine is looking to get back on track from a loss to the San Francisco. Tip-off is set for 11:00 ET.

Saint Mary’s Gaels vs Pepperdine Waves

The Saint Mary’s Gaels Are Coming Off A Win

Having won 15 straight games, Saint Mary’s heads to Pepperdine as 15.5-point favorites. The Gaels are 23-6 overall, including a perfect 14-0 mark in West Coast Conference action.

On the road, Saint Mary’s is 9-0 this season, and they have won their last nine games away from home. Their average scoring margin on the road is +14.3 points per game.

Against the spread, Saint Mary’s has a record of 15-13 this season. On the road, their ATS mark is 6-3, and over their last three road games, they are 3-0 vs. the spread.

This season, the over/under record for Saint Mary’s games is 15-13, and today’s over/under line of 138 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (133.1). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0, and the average scoring total in those games is 149 points.

The Pepperdine Waves Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Pepperdine comes into this game as a 15.5-point underdog, and they have gone just 2-14 in 16 games as an underdog this season. The Waves are 12-18 overall, including a 7-8 record at home.

Pepperdine’s average scoring margin at home this season is +3.6, and they have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games at home. In their most recent game, the Waves lost to San Francisco by a score of 92-68.

As the underdog this season, Pepperdine has gone just 4-12 against the spread. At home, the Waves have an ATS record of 8-7 this year and are 5-4 ATS in their last 10 home games. Overall, Pepperdine is 12-16 vs. the spread this season.

Pepperdine’s over/under record this season is 14-12-2 and today’s over/under line of 138 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this season (149.9). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 159 points and their over/under record in their last 10 games is 7-3.

Saint Mary’s Offense Breakdown

Saint Mary’s is fresh off a strong offensive showing, putting up 88 points versus San Diego. This output is higher than their season-average of 74.6 points per game. Offensively, the Gaels hold a season-long field goal percentage of 46%, placing them 96th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 208th in terms of percentage and 177th in three-pointers made.

Aidan Mahaney (G) 13.9 2.6 2.7
Augustas Marciulionis (G) 12.2 3.0 4.9
Mitchell Saxen (C) 11.6 7.6 1.5

Pepperdine Offense Breakdown

Against San Francisco, the Pepperdine had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 73.1 points per game. They scored 68 points and posted a field goal percentage of 45.8% in the game. Michael Ajayi is leading the team in scoring at 17.5 points per contest. Houston Mallette has also been a key contributor with a PPG average of 14.9 going into the game.

Michael Ajayi (G) 17.5 9.5 1.9
Houston Mallette (G) 14.9 3.3 2.5
Jevon Porter (F) 15.5 5.7 1.6

Saint Mary’s Team Defense

At this time, the Gaels’ defense is positioned 3rd in the country, permitting 58.1 points per game. Against San Diego in their most recent game, the Saint Mary’s defense gave up a total of 62 points while allowing San Diego to hit 55% of their shots.

Pepperdine Team Defense

So far, the Waves’ defense is ranked 253rd in the country at 75.4 points per contest. So far, the Pepperdine defense is giving up an average of 6.5 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 10.4 times per game (443rd).

Gaels vs Waves Trends

  • When looking at their past ten road matchups, Saint Mary’s has an ATS record of 6-4 while averaging 71 per game. The team went 9-1 overall in these games.
  • Although Pepperdine has a straight up record of 1-2 in their last three home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 72 points per game in these games.
  • As the betting underdog, the Waves have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Pepperdine posted a straight up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
  • In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Gaels have a straight up record of 10-0 and an ATS mark of 7-3.

Gaels vs Waves Prediction

The Waves come in as the underdog at +15.5, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 138 and our model has the Gaels and Waves finishing with a combined 145 points. Our pick is to take the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.