SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers NCAAB Betting Prediction

SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers Prediction 1/15/2025

The SMU Mustangs (12-4) travel to face off against the Virginia Cavaliers (8-8) on Wednesday, January 15th. This game will be played at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville and televised on ACCN. SMU is coming off a win in their previous game, while Virginia is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Stanford. Tip-off is set for 9:00 ET.

SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers

The Mustangs Are Coming Off A Win

SMU Mustangs Recent Game/Games

SMU improved to 12-4 on the season with a 93-71 win over Georgia Tech on Saturday. The Mustangs, who were -11 point favorites, covered the spread at home. The game’s total points of 164 exceeded the O/U line of 153.5.

SMU dominated early, leading 50-19 at halftime, but allowed 52 points in the 2nd half while scoring 43.

The Cavaliers Are Coming Off A Win

Virginia’s season record dropped to 8-8 after a tough 88-65 road loss to Stanford on Saturday. Entering the game as +7.5 point underdogs, the Cavaliers not only lost but also failed to cover the spread.

Virginia trailed 40-30 at halftime and couldn’t close the gap, allowing 48 points in the 2nd half while scoring 35. The game’s total points reached 153, well over the pre-game O/U line of 125.5.

Mustangs Offense Breakdown

SMU’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 93 points with a 50% shooting performance from the field. They were equally effective from beyond the arc, hitting 14 of 28 threes, also at a 50% clip, contributing to an effective field goal percentage of 60%.

The Mustangs dished out 25 assists, with Naithan George leading the way with 10. Chuck Harris and Javian McCollum each scored over 20 points, shooting 63.6% overall. B.J. Edwards was perfect from deep, hitting both of his attempts and finishing with 19 points on 8 of 11 shooting.

Cavaliers Offense Breakdown

Virginia’s offense put up 65 points in their last game, shooting 46.7% from the field. They were particularly effective from beyond the arc, hitting 47.6% of their threes (10/21) and posting an effective field goal percentage of 57.8%.

At the free-throw line, the Cavaliers shot 81.2% (13/16). Maxime Raynaud led the team with 24 points and 10 rebounds, while Isaac McKneely added 22 points, connecting on 5 of 11 threes.

Mustangs Team Defense

Despite SMU’s defensive struggles, allowing 71 points on 50% shooting, their offense couldn’t capitalize. The Mustangs gave up 14 threes on 28 attempts, with their opponent hitting 50% from deep.

SMU sent their opponent to the line 15 times, where they made 9 free throws. The Mustangs also allowed 13 offensive rebounds, contributing to their defensive woes.

Cavaliers Team Defense

Even with SMU’s defensive struggles, allowing 71 points on 50% shooting, they managed to hold the opposing team to just 9 free throws, of which they made 60%. SMU also gave up 13 offensive rebounds.

Mustangs vs Cavaliers Trends

  • In their last five games away from home, the Mustangs have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 81 points per game in these contests.
  • In their last three games at home, the Cavaliers have a straight up record of 0-3 while going 0-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 59 points per game in this stretch.
  • As the betting underdog, the Cavaliers have an ATS mark of just 1-4 in their last five games. Virginia posted a straight up mark of 0-5 in these matchups.
  • As the betting favorite, the Mustangs have an ATS mark of just 7-3 in their last ten games. SMU posted a straight up mark of 9-1 in these matchups.

Mustangs vs Cavaliers Prediction

Coming in as the underdogs at +6.5, we have the Cavaliers as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 133.5, and our model projects the Mustangs and Cavaliers to reach a combined total of 145 points. Our bet is on taking the over.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.