Texas Longhorns vs Baylor Bears NCAAB Betting Prediction

Texas Longhorns vs Baylor Bears Prediction 3/4/2024

The Texas Longhorns (19-10) travel to face off against the Baylor Bears (21-8) on Monday, March 4th. This game will be played at Foster Pavilion in Waco and televised on ESPN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 9:00 ET.

Texas Longhorns vs Baylor Bears

The Texas Longhorns Are Coming Off A Win

After winning their last two games, the Texas Longhorns are 19-10 overall, including an 8-8 record in Big 12 play. On the road, they are 5-5 this season, and they are 4-6 when listed as the underdog.

So far this season, the Longhorns have been favored in 19 games, going 15-4 in those contests. Their average scoring margin on the road this season is -3.6 points per game, and they are coming off an 81-65 win over Oklahoma State.

As the underdog this season, Texas has gone 5-5 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 4-6, and over their last 10 games as the underdog, they are 5-5. In their last three road games, the Longhorns are 1-2 ATS, and their ATS record on the road this season is 4-6.

This season, the over/under record for Texas games is 17-12 and today’s line of 147 is similar to the average over/under line in their games (144.5). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0 with an average scoring total of 149 points.

The Baylor Bears Are Coming Off A Win

With a record of 21-8, Baylor has been dominant at home, going 15-1. They are currently on a four-game home winning streak and have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games at home.

For the season, Baylor has been favored in 20 of their 29 games and has gone 18-2 in those contests. Their average scoring margin at home sits at +18.1 points per game.

As the favorite, Baylor has been solid vs. the spread this year, going 13-6-1. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bears are 6-3-1 vs. the spread. At home, Baylor has an ATS mark of 11-4-1 this season and they are 5-4-1 over their last 10 home games.

Today’s over/under line of 147 is right in line with the season-long average OU line in Baylor games (148). So far, 16 of their 29 games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 143 points compared to their season average of 151.8 points per game.

Texas Offense Breakdown

Texas’ offense is coming off a good game, putting up 81 points vs. Oklahoma State. Overall, they hit 47.1% of their shots from the field and went 8/9 from the free-throw line. Leading the team in scoring was Dylan Disu with 17 points. Chendall Weaver also added 16 points for the Longhorns.

Max Abmas (G) 16.5 3.0 4.3
Dylan Disu (F) 16.8 5.0 1.7
Tyrese Hunter (G) 10.3 2.8 4.1

Baylor Offense Breakdown

Baylor’s offense had a good outing, putting up 82 points against Kansas. They achieved a 55.6% field goal percentage and went 15/20 from the free-throw line. RayJ Dennis led the scoring for the Bears, contributing 19 points. Additionally, Jayden Nunn chipped in with 18 points.

Ja’Kobe Walter (G) 14.7 4.6 1.6
RayJ Dennis (G) 13.4 3.9 6.8
Jalen Bridges (F) 11.2 5.2 1.5

Texas Team Defense

At present, the Longhorns’ defense is nationally ranked 85th, allowing 68.4 points per game. In their most recent game, the Texas defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Oklahoma State knocked down 9 three-pointers on their way to 65 points.

Baylor Team Defense

Currently, the Bears’ defense holds the 134th rank in the nation, allowing 70.9 points per game. The Baylor defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 74 points and allowed Kansas to connect on 7 threes.

Longhorns vs Bears Trends

  • Although Texas has a straight up record of 5-5 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 4-6. The team averaged 72 points per game in these games.
  • Through their last ten home contests, the Bears offense has averaged 71 points per game while allowing an average of 72. Baylor posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 6-4 ATS.
  • Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Longhorns have a straight up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.
  • As the betting favorite, the Bears have an ATS record of 3-0 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 3-0.

Longhorns vs Bears Prediction

Not only do we have the Bears winning this one by a score of 76-68, but we see them covering the spread. Our pick is to grab the Bears at -7.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 147 and given that our model is projecting 144 points between the teams, we like the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.