birmingham bowl prediction

Troy Trojans vs Duke Birmingham Bowl Prediction 12/23/2023

The Troy Trojans (11-2) face off against the Duke Blue Devils (7-5) on Saturday, December 23rd. This game will be played at Protective Stadium in Birmingham and televised on ABC. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Kickoff is set for 12:00 ET.

Troy Trojans vs Duke Blue Devils

The Troy Trojans Are Coming Off A Win

Most recently, Troy faced off with Appalachian State and picked up an easy 49-23 win. In the win vs. Appalachian State, quarterback Gunnar Watson finished with a QB rating of 104.86 while completing 16 of 24 passes for 192 yards. He also ended the game with one touchdown.

Going into the game, Troy was favored by 5.5 and went on to cover the spread. The team’s combined 72 points surpassed the over/under line of 53.

So far, the Troy Trojans are 11-2, including going 5-1 on the road and 5-1 at home.

Against the spread, Troy has gone 8-4 this season. The Trojans have been favored 10 times compared to two games as the underdog. In 13 games played, the average over/under line for Troy’s games has been set at 49 points. These contests have seen an average combined score of 48.3 points, resulting in an OU record of 5-7.

The Duke Blue Devils Are Coming Off A Win

The Blue Devils’ last played against Pittsburgh, with the game ending in a 30-19 win. In the win against Pittsburgh, quarterback Grayson Loftis achieved a QB rating of 81.81, completing 20 of 37 passes for 248 yards. Additionally, he contributed two touchdowns to the game.

Going into the game, Duke was favored by 4.5 and went on to cover the spread. The team’s combined 49 points surpassed the over/under line of 41.5.

With a 7-5 record, the Duke Blue Devils take on Troy. Their road record so far is (1-3) and at home (5-1).

Duke’s average scoring differential for the season is +8 leading to an ATS mark of 5-5. The Blue Devils have been favored six times and the underdog in four games So far in this season, Duke has posted an over/under record of 6-4. On average, their matchups have yielded a combined score of 47.5 points, with the typical over/under line set at 47.1 points.

Troy Offense Breakdown

In the rushing game, the Trojans are currently 36th in college football with 456 attempts per game. This has resulted in an average of 159.5 rushing yards per game, putting them 52nd nationally. Their passing game has averaged 32.1 passes and 267.1 yards per game. When it comes to scoring, they are 29th, averaging 31.2 points per game.

The team’s leading passer is Gunnar Watson, who has tallied 3329 passing yards with a completion percentage of 61.2%. He’s currently averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt.

Duke Offense Breakdown

Duke enters the game on offense with an average of 27.8, ranking them 55th in the NCAA. Their passing game has them at 111th in the nation, with an average of 181.3 passing yards per game. On the ground, they’re at 60th in rushing yards, with an average of 405 rushing attempts per game this season.

With 1102 passing yards and a completion percentage of 57.6%, quarterback Riley Leonard leads the team in passing. His average yards per pass attempt stands at 6.7.

Troy Team Defense

This season, the Trojans’ defense has yielded an average of 103.8 rushing yards, earning them a rank of 197th. Opponents have an average of 202.9 passing yards, with opposing quarterbacks attaining a passer rating of 80 when facing Troy. They are currently 93rd in points allowed in NCAA rankings.

Duke Team Defense

The Duke defense, going into this week’s game, holds 66th place for points allowed, allowing 19.8 points per game. Opponents have been gaining an average of 208.2 passing yards each game against them (63rd in the country). On the ground, they’re yielding 146.8 rushing yards, ranking them 74th in college football.

Troy vs Duke Trends

  • Troy are 5-0 Against the spread in their last five games on the road.
  • Duke’s ATS record at home (last ten) is 4-6.
  • Blue Devils is 2-3 in their last five games as underdogs.
  • Over their last five games as the betting favorite, Troy has an ATS record of 4-1.

Troy vs Duke Prediction

One of the main reasons I’m taking Troy at -6.5 is the fact that they come in with a strong pass rush. Look for this to cause problems up-front for Duke. I’d recommend taking the Troy Trojans on the spread.

Games featuring Troy this season have averaged 48.3 points in total. Considering the over/under line at 44, I’m backing the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.