The North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4) face off against the West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4) on Wednesday, December 27th. This game will be played at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte and televised on ESPN. West Virginia is coming off a win in their previous game, while North Carolina is looking to get back on track from a loss to the NC State. Kickoff is set for 5:30 ET.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs West Virginia Mountaineers
The North Carolina Tar Heels Look To Bounce Back From A Loss
North Carolina is coming of a 39-20 loss to NC State. The Tar Heels were never able to receover from falling behind early, trailing 20-7 at the half. Against NC State, Drake Maye not only threw for two touchdowns but also ran for one touchdown. He concluded with 254 passing yards and a completion rate of 57.9%.
The over hit in this game as the pre-game over/under matchup was 55.5. On the point spread, North Carolina was handed a straight-up and ATS loss as they were favored by 2.5.
So far, the North Carolina Tar Heels are 8-4, including going 1-3 on the road and 4-1 at home.
Against the spread, North Carolina has gone 5-4 this season. The Tar Heels have been favored eight times compared to one game as the underdog. Heading into this week’s game, North Carolina’s over/under record is 4-4-1. Their average margin against their over/under lines is currently +6.1 with their games averaging 63.7 points per game.
The West Virginia Mountaineers Are Coming Off A Win
In their most recent game, West Virginia and Baylor both had big offensive performances, with West Virginia coming out on a top by a score of 34-31. Against Baylor, Garrett Greene not only threw for two touchdowns but also ran for two touchdowns. He concluded with 269 passing yards and a completion rate of 64.0%.
Going into the game as 11.5-point favorites, West Virginia’s 3 point win wasn’t enough to cover. The over hit in the game as the over/under betting line was 54.5 at kickoff.
So far, the West Virginia Mountaineers are 8-4, including going 3-3 on the road and 4-1 at home.
Against the spread, West Virginia has gone 6-5 this season. The Mountaineers have been favored six times compared to five games as the underdog. This season, West Virginia has posted an over/under record of 7-4 through 12 games. On average their games have combined for 59.1 points.
North Carolina Offense Breakdown
On offense, North Carolina comes into the game averaging 36.6, which is 18th in the NCAA. On average, they are averaging 306.8 passing yards (11th) compared to 19th in rushing yards. For the season, they are averaging 456 rushing attempts per contest.
Leading the team in passing yards is Drake Maye with 3608 yards. In addition, he is 2nd on the team in rushing yards. This season, he’s carried the ball 112 times for 449 yards while boasting a completion rate of 63.3%.
West Virginia Offense Breakdown
On offense, West Virginia comes into the game averaging 31.6, which is 39th in the NCAA. On average, they are averaging 203.8 passing yards (92nd) compared to 4th in rushing yards. For the season, they are averaging 528 rushing attempts per contest.
Leading the team in passing yards is Garrett Greene with 2178 yards. So far, he has completed 53.1% of his passes and is 3rd on the team in rushing yards. For the season, he has ran the ball 111 times for 708 yards.
North Carolina Team Defense
Coming into their matchup vs. West Virginia, the North Carolina defense is 106th in points allowed, giving up 27.1 points per game. So far, opponents have averaged 242.3 passing yards per game against them (130th in the country). Against the run, they’re allowing 164.6 rushing yards, which ranks them 111th in college football.
West Virginia Team Defense
This season, the Mountaineers’ defense has allowed 145.6 rushing yards per contest, placing them 146th. Opponents are averaging 239.9 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of 94.9 when facing West Virginia. They currently hold the 44th spot in NCAA points allowed.
North Carolina vs West Virginia Trends
- When playing on the road, North Carolina has an ATS mark of 0-3 vs. the spread.
- Looking across West Virginia’s five most recent home games, they are 2-3 against the spread.
- West Virginia is 5-5 in their last ten games as underdogs.
- North Carolina’s record vs. the spread in their three most recent games as the favorite is 1-2.
So far, turnovers have been a problem in the passing game for West Virginia. Coming in as the away underdogs, I like North Carolina to cover the spread at +3.
Not only does our model have a projected total of 57 points in this matchup, but the eye test has me feeling this line of 56.5 is low. I like North Carolina and West Virginia to exceed 56.5 points.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.