Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils NCAAB Betting Prediction

Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction 3/2/2024

The Virginia Cavaliers (21-8) travel to face off against the Duke Blue Devils (22-6) on Saturday, March 2nd. This game will be played at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham and televised on ESPN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 6:00 ET.

Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils

The Virginia Cavaliers Are Coming Off A Win

Virginia is 21-8 this season, including a 12-6 record in ACC games. The Cavaliers have gone 5-6 on the road, compared to 16-2 at home. They have been the favorite in 22 of their 29 games, going 19-3 in those contests.

Over their last 10 road games, the Cavaliers have gone 5-5. They are coming off a 72-68 win over Boston College. So far, their average scoring margin on the road is -9.4 points per game.

Virginia’s ATS record this season is 15-13-1, and they are 5-6 vs. the spread on the road. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Cavaliers have gone just 2-8 vs. the spread.

Virginia’s over/under record for the season is 13-16 and the average over/under line in their games is 127. So far, 16 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line of 125.5. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 117 points and their over/under record during this stretch is 1-2.

The Duke Blue Devils Are Coming Off A Win

At home, Duke has been dominant this season, going 15-2 with an average scoring margin of +16.9 points per game. The Blue Devils also enter this game on a five-game winning streak at home, and they have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games at home.

For the season, Duke has been the favorite in 25 of its 28 games, going 21-4 in those contests. Overall, the Blue Devils are 22-6, including a 12-4 record in ACC play.

As the favorite this season, Duke has gone 15-10 vs. the spread. At home, the Blue Devils are 11-6 ATS. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, Duke is 7-3 vs. the spread. In their last three home games, the Blue Devils have gone 3-0 ATS.

Today’s over/under line of 125.5 is lower than the average over/under line of 147.2 in Duke’s games this year. Their over/under record is 12-14-1 this season. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 147 points.

Virginia Offense Breakdown

Coming off their recent game, the Virginia offense tallied 72 points in a matchup against Boston College. Their field goal percentage for the game was 44.4%, and they made 8 threes. The team’s scoring leader is Reece Beekman, who holds an average of 13.9 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Isaac McKneely is averaging 12.2 points per game this season.

Reece Beekman (G) 13.9 3.4 5.9
Isaac McKneely (G) 12.2 3.0 1.6
Ryan Dunn (G) 8.4 7.1 0.8

Duke Offense Breakdown

Duke’s offense had a good outing, putting up 84 points against Louisville. They achieved a 56.1% field goal percentage and went 9/16 from the free-throw line. Jeremy Roach led the team in scoring, putting up 19 points. Additionally, Mark Mitchell contributed 17 points for the Blue Devils.

Kyle Filipowski (C) 16.6 8.3 2.9
Jeremy Roach (G) 14.4 2.5 3.0
Jared McCain (G) 13.6 4.9 1.8

Virginia Team Defense

At this time, the Cavaliers’ defense is positioned 4th in the country, permitting 58.7 points per game. In their previous game vs. Boston College, the Eagles finished with a field goal percentage of 41% and a total of 68 points vs. Virginia.

Duke Team Defense

Duke’s defense has been playing well, ranking 61st nationally, with 67.4 points allowed per game. Duke’s defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the Louisville offense to knock down 56% of their shots on their way to putting up 59 points.

Cavaliers vs Blue Devils Trends

  • When looking at their past five road matchups, Virginia has an ATS record of 4-1 while averaging 65 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
  • When looking at their past ten home matchups, Duke has an ATS record of 3-6 while averaging 76 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
  • Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Cavaliers have gone 1-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-4.
  • Through their last five games as the favorite, the Blue Devils have an ATS record of 5-0 and a straight up mark of 5-0.

Cavaliers vs Blue Devils Prediction

For a point-spread wager in this Blue Devils vs. Blue Devils game, we suggest taking the Blue Devils at -8.5. Even though our predictions have the Blue Devils winning 74-69, we see the Cavaliers as the better choice on the point-spread.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 125.5 and given that our model is projecting 143 points between the teams, we like the over.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.