Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Betting Prediction

NBA Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 3/3/2025

The Houston Rockets (37-23) travel to face off against the Oklahoma City Thunder (49-11) on Monday, March 3rd. This game will be played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City and televised on NBA. The Thunder are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Rockets are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Rockets. Tip-off is set for 8:00 ET.

Rockets vs Thunder

houston rockets nba

The Rockets Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Rockets fell to 37-23 on the season after a 113-103 loss to the Kings on Saturday. Houston was favored by 4 points but couldn’t cover the spread, and the total score of 216 points fell short of the 230.5-point line.

Sacramento’s 15-0 run early in the game set the tone, and although Houston kept pace in the 2nd quarter (38-38), they couldn’t close the gap, getting outscored 26-23 in the 3rd and 24-21 in the 4th.

The Thunder Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

The Thunder improved to 49-11 this season with a 146-132 win over the Spurs on Sunday. Oklahoma City, who were -13 point favorites, covered the spread with the victory. The game’s total points of 278.5 easily surpassed the O/U line of 238.5 by 39.5 points.

After trailing 77-72 at halftime, the Thunder turned things around by outscoring the Spurs 36-23 in the 3rd quarter. They entered the 4th quarter with a 108-100 lead and closed out the game by outscoring San Antonio 38-32 in the final period.

Rockets Offense Breakdown

Alperen Şengün led the Rockets with 30 points and 10 rebounds in their 113-103 loss to the Kings, shooting 62.5% from the field. Jalen Green added 24 points, hitting 4 threes at a 40% rate, while Tari Eason contributed 14 points, making 3 threes at 60% efficiency.

Houston shot 43% from the field, connecting on 13 threes at a 37.1% clip. Şengün scored 10 points in the 1st quarter, and 9 more in the 3rd, while Eason added 9 points in the 4th. Dillon Brooks scored all 12 of his points in the 2nd quarter.

Thunder Offense Breakdown

oklahoma city thunder

The Thunder’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their 146-132 win over the Spurs, shooting 54.5% from the field and hitting 19 threes at a 43.2% clip. Jalen Williams led the way with 41 points, 17 of which came in the 4th quarter, and added 7 assists and 6 rebounds, shooting 62.5% from the field and 50% from three.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander contributed 31 points and 8 assists, hitting 60% of his threes, while Cason Wallace added 19 points, connecting on 4 threes at 50%. Wallace also scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter, and Aaron Wiggins added 8 of his 17 points in the same period.

Rockets Team Defense

Despite a strong defensive effort in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters, where they held the Kings to 25, 26, and 24 points respectively, the Rockets gave up 38 points in the 2nd quarter, contributing to their 113-103 loss. Houston allowed Sacramento to shoot 50% from the field.

The Rockets did well in limiting the Kings’ three-point shooting, holding them to 9 made threes on 32% shooting. Houston sent Sacramento to the line 21 times, where they made 16 free throws. Defensively, the Rockets recorded 7 steals and 2 blocks.

Thunder Team Defense

The Rockets’ defense struggled in the 2nd quarter, giving up 38 points, and they allowed the Kings to shoot 50% from the field overall. However, they tightened up in the 4th quarter, allowing just 24 points.

Houston did well defending the three, holding Sacramento to 9 made threes on 32% shooting. The Rockets also sent the Kings to the line 21 times, where they made 16 free throws. Defensively, the Rockets recorded 7 steals and 2 blocks.

Rockets vs Thunder Trends

  • Across the Rockets last five road games, the team averaged 109 points per game while allowing 118. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-4, while going 0-5 straight-up.
  • In their last three home games, Oklahoma City has averaged 136 points per game while allowing 124. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
  • As the betting underdog, the Rockets have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Houston posted a straight up mark of 4-6 in these matchups.
  • As the betting favorite, the Thunder have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 3-0.

Rockets vs Thunder Prediction

We’re putting our money on the Thunder to win, and have the projected score sitting at 138-116. We also like them to cover the spread, so our recommendation is to bet on the Thunder at -11.

As for the total, the line is currently sitting at 226.5 and our model has the Rockets and Thunder finishing with a combined 254 points. Our pick is to take the over.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.