The Atlanta Braves (23-12) travel to face off against the New York Mets (18-19) on Saturday, May 11th. This game will be played at Citi Field in New York and televised on BSSE. The Braves are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Mets are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Braves. First pitch is set for 4:10 ET.
Braves vs Mets
The most recent game o of this Mets and Braves series came right down to the end, as the Mets rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 4-2 on the road. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -152 on the money line.
Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies each homered for the Braves, while Matt Olson also had a two-run home run and scored three times. For the Mets, Francisco Lindor hit a home run and drove in two runs.
Charlie Morton pitched well for the Braves in this one, going seven innings and striking out seven without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Raisel Iglesias closed things out. Jose Quintana had a rough outing for the Mets, taking the loss.
With an overall record of 23-12, the Braves are 2nd in the NL East, two games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Braves have taken their last three games and are 9-4 against other teams in the NL East. Atlanta took the first game of this series vs. the Mets.
At home, the Braves have been really good this year, putting together a record of 13-4. So far, they are 10-8 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 23-10 and are 0-2 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 8-3-1.
Atlanta has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 18-17 overall, including a 10-8 mark on the road. The Braves have been favored in 33 of their games and have covered the run line in 17 of those contests. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6 runs per game, compared to -3.2 runs in losses.
The Atlanta Braves have played in 30 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, with the average line set at 9 runs. Their over/under record for the season is 12-21, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. However, their last four games have all gone under the total, including their most recent game against the Mets, where the combined runs were just 6, well below the 7.5-run line.
Max Fried Gets The Start For The Braves
Max Fried gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Mets on the road. So far this season, he has made seven starts and has a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 4.23. Fried’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.15. In his 38 1/3 innings of work, Fried has one complete game shutout and three quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Fried took the loss vs. the Dodgers, giving up four earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had not allowed an earned run in two straight outings.
Braves Offense Breakdown
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 12 home runs are the most in the league and also lead the Braves. Ozuna is also batting .313 for the season and is on a four-game hitting streak. Travis d’Arnaud is also swinging a good bat for the Braves, with a team-high 38 RBIs to go along with a batting average of .267.
As a team, the Braves are 5th in scoring at 5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, the Braves are the league’s top home run hitting team and are batting .256, which is 4th in the league.
The Mets are 18-19 overall this season, and they trail the Phillies by eight games in the NL East. New York is 2-2 in divisional games this year, and they are losing the series vs. the Braves, with an overall series record of 6-5-1. At home, the Mets are 9-11 this year and 9-8 on the road.
As the favorite, the Mets have gone 10-9 this year and 8-10 as the underdog. So far, they have dropped four of their last six games and are just 4-6 over their last 10.
When the Mets win, they do so by an average of 3.2 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of -2.8 runs per game. Overall, they have a run differential of +0.1 runs per game. They are 19-18 against the run line this season, including an 8-12 mark at home and an 11-6 mark on the road. As the favorite, they are 8-11 against the run line, while they are 11-7 as the underdog.
Today’s over/under line of 7.5 runs for the Mets-Braves game is lower than the Mets’ average combined run total of 8.7 runs per game. The Mets have played 10 games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs this season, and the over has hit in 40% of those games. Overall, the over has hit in 48.6% of the Mets’ games this season.
Christian Scott Gets The Start For The Mets
Christian Scott will be making his first home start of the season for the Mets as they take on the Braves. In his first start of the year, Scott went 6 2/3 innings and gave up just 1 earned run. He struck out 6 and walked 1, but did give up 5 hits.
Mets Offense Breakdown
Brandon Nimmo comes into the game on a seven-game hitting streak and has been hot at the plate of late, going 9/29 in his last eight games with two homers and seven RBIs. Over this stretch, he has scored five runs. Nimmo is batting just .230 for the season, but his 25 RBIs are the best mark on the team. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are also at the top of the Mets’ home run leaderboard, but both players are batting under .220 for the season.
As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.4 runs per game and have been a better offensive team on the road this season. Overall, they are 11th in home runs and have the league’s 15th best batting average. Collectively, they have been tough to strike out and are near the top of the league in walks.
Braves vs Mets Prediction
Our pick for today’s Braves vs. Mets game is to take the Mets on the money line at +134. We have the Mets winning this one by a final score of 6-5. At +134, the Mets have an implied probability of 42.9% of picking up the win, and we have this as a good value pick.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Christian Scott finishing with five strikeouts compared to Max Fried with four. Scott is also projected to go for six innings, while Fried is projected to go four.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:May 11, 2024 Braves, Mets