The Atlanta Braves (29-19) travel to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates (24-28) on Saturday, May 25th. This game will be played at PNC Park in Pittsburgh and televised on BSSE. The Pirates are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Braves are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Pirates. First pitch is set for 4:05 ET.
Braves vs Pirates
Pittsburgh cruised to an easy 11-5 win over the Braves in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates had a huge 3rd inning, scoring nine of their eleven runs. As for the Braves, they scored all five of their runs in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Pirates were at +151 on the money line.
Bailey Falter pitched well for the Pirates in this one, going seven and a third innings and giving up just three runs. He finished with four strikeouts but issued one walk. On the other side, Ray Kerr got the start for the Braves and took the loss, going just four innings and giving up five earned runs.
Jared Triolo and Edward Olivares each homered for the Pirates, while Nick Gonzales went 2/3 with four RBIs and two runs scored. Connor Joe also had a two-hit game and drove in three runs.
Atlanta is 29-19 overall this season, putting them six games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. So far, they have gone 10-5 in divisional games. The Braves have lost two straight games and are just 4-6 over their last 10.
At home, the Braves are 16-8 this season and 13-11 on the road. As the favorite, Atlanta has gone 28-16 and 1-3 as the underdog. They have won two straight series on the road, and their overall series record is 11-4-1 this year.
When the Braves win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.7 runs per game. That’s a big reason why they have a run line record of 25-23. They’ve been even better on the run line on the road, going 14-10. Their average scoring margin on the road is 1.2 runs per game, compared to 0.5 at home. They’ve been a run line favorite in most games, going 22-22 in those contests.
The Braves are on the road today against the Pirates, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Atlanta’s games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 16-30. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 4-8. Overall, 47.9% of their games have had higher lines than 8.5 runs, while 27.1% have had lower lines.
Reynaldo López Gets The Start For The Braves
Right-hander Reynaldo López is getting the start for the Braves today as he faces the Pirates on the road. So far this season, he has made eight starts and has a record of 2-1 to go along with an ERA of 1.54. López has been tough to hit this year, as opponents are batting .196 off him. He has turned in five quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up one homer. López has not allowed a homer in any of his other three outings.
Braves Offense Breakdown
Marcell Ozuna has been the Braves’ top hitter this season, batting .318 with a team-high 15 home runs and 47 RBIs. Over his last 10 games, he has three homers and is batting .278. Matt Olson has also hit three homers over his last 10 games, but he is batting just .219 for the season.
The Braves are one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in batting average and have the league’s 7th best on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Pittsburgh is 24-28 overall, putting them 4th in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by six games in the division. The Pirates are 7-7 against other NL Central teams this year. So far, they have been slightly better on the road, going 13-14 compared to an 11-14 mark at home.
As the underdog, the Pirates have won three straight, and they are 17-14 as the underdog overall. Pittsburgh’s series record is 5-8-3 this year, and they have dropped three straight series at home.
When it comes to run line betting, the Pirates have been a profitable team to bet on this season. They are 29-23 against the run line overall and have been especially good on the road, where they are 17-10. They have also been a good bet as the underdog, going 23-8 against the run line in those games. Their average run differential in winning games is +2.7, while their average run differential in losing games is -3.2.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have played to the over in 11 of their 18 games with an over/under line of 8.5 runs this season. The over has hit in four straight games for the Pirates, and their games have averaged exactly 8.5 runs per game. Overall, the over/under record for Pittsburgh this season is 26-25.
Mitch Keller Gets The Start For The Pirates
Mitch Keller will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Cubs. In that May 19th outing, he went six innings and gave up just two earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Keller has made 10 starts and has a record of 5-3. His ERA for the season is 3.84, along with a WHIP of 1.28. Keller has turned in five quality starts this year and is averaging 7.97 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed six homers and is averaging 2.8 walks per nine innings.
Pirates Offense Breakdown
Andrew McCutchen has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Pirates, going 8/24 in his last six games with five runs scored and one home run. For the season, he is batting just .232, but his seven homers are tied for the team lead. McCutchen is also 6th on the team with 14 RBIs. Bryan Reynolds has also been swinging a good bat of late, going 8/28 in his last six games with two homers and seven RBIs. Reynolds is batting .258 for the season and is also tied for the team lead with seven homers.
As a team, the Pirates are averaging 4 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. So far, they are batting just .230, and their team slugging percentage of .362 is also below the league average. Overall, they are 14th in home runs, but their team on-base percentage of .305 is just 17th in the league.
Braves vs Pirates Prediction
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Braves, and with the money line payout sitting at -157, we see this as a great value. Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Mitch Keller finishing with six strikeouts, which is the seventh-best among today’s starters. As for Reynaldo Lopez, his projected strikeout total is just four, which is the sixth worst.
Offensively, the Braves have a lot of power today, with our projections having them hitting the second-most home runs of any team. As for the Pirates, they are actually projected to finish with the fewest runs in the league today.
Our recommended pick is to take the Braves on the money line, and with a payout of -157, you could also look to parlay this with another game to increase your payout.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.
Last updated:May 26, 2024 Braves, Pirates