Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Prediction

MLB Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 7/5/2024

The Philadelphia Phillies (57-30) travel to face off against the Atlanta Braves (47-38) on Friday, July 5th. This game will be played at Truist Park in Atlanta and televised on APLTV. Both the Phillies and Braves are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. First pitch is set for 6:20 CT.

Phillies vs. Braves Betting Prediction

  • Money Line Prediction: Braves (-144)
  • Over/Under Prediction: Over 7.5 Runs
  • The Braves have a strong home record, winning 7 out of their last 10 home games.
  • In the last 15 games, the Braves have scored an average of 4.2 runs per game at home.
  • The Braves have won 4 out of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record.
  • Atlanta has a better overall home record (27-16) compared to Philadelphia’s away record (24-16).
  • In head-to-head matchups this season, the Braves have outscored the Phillies 25-12 in home games.

Phillies vs Braves

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The Braves Took The Last Game Of This Series

The Phillies will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cubs with a 10-2 loss. Philadelphia was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Cubs scored five times in the 4th.

Cristopher Sánchez got the start for the Phillies and took the loss. He only lasted four innings, giving up seven earned runs. Offensively, the Phillies only had two fewer hits than the Cubs but scored just two runs. Nick Castellanos had a homer in the 2nd inning but went just 2/4.

Philadelphia has been a strong favorite this season, with a 50-24 record in those games. Their overall run line record is 46-41, and their average run differential is +1.3 runs per game. The Phillies have gone over the line in four straight games, and their over/under record for the season is 39-43.

The Phillies are currently leading the NL East by 9.0 games over the Braves, with a 57-30 overall record. They have won two straight series and are 6-4 in their last 10 games. On the road, the Phillies have a 24-16 record, while at home, they are 33-14.

Aaron Nola Gets The Start For The Phillies

Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Braves on the road. Nola has made 17 starts this season and has a record of 9-4 with a 3.43 ERA. So far, he has pitched much better on the road, coming in with a record of 5-1 and an ERA of 4.33. At home, his ERA is 4.08. Nola’s most recent outing came vs. the Marlins, where he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

Phillies Offense Breakdown

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offensive teams, as they are 5th in scoring at 5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, the Phillies are 3rd in team batting average at .258 and have the league’s 5th best home run total. As a team, they are 4th in on-base percentage and 6th in slugging.

Over his last 10 games, Alec Bohm has hit just .231, but he does have three homers in that stretch. For the season, he is batting .296 with 11 homers and 70 RBIs. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are also among the team’s top power threats, with Harper having 20 homers and Schwarber at 17. Harper is batting .303 for the season, and Schwarber comes in at .250.

The Braves Took The Last Game Of This Series

The Braves will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Giants with a 4-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 4th inning before the Giants scored three runs in the top of the 4th. Atlanta was the -128 favorite at home going into the game.

Charlie Morton took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on five hits. He also issued two walks and hit a batter. The Braves’s offense scored their only two runs in thejson 1st inning. Ozzie Albies went 2/4 with a double and a run scored.

Atlanta is 2nd in the NL East, nine games behind the Phillies, heading into today’s game. Their overall series record this season is 16-11-2, and they have a run line record of 40-45. The Braves have a 19-24 run line record at home and 21-21 on the road. In games with an O/U line of 7.5, their O/U record is 4-10.

Braves have a 27-16 home record and are 44-32 as favorites straight up. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games, having lost two of three to the Giants in their previous series.

Max Fried Gets The Start For The Braves

Max Fried will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. In that start vs. the Pirates, he finished with a no-decision. Looking back further, Fried has made two complete games and has one shutout this season. His record for the year is 7-3, and he has an ERA of 2.91. Opponents are batting .211 off Fried this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.87 strikeouts and 2.81 walks. At home, Fried is 2-1 with a 3.99 ERA.

Braves Offense Breakdown

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Marcell Ozuna has been a big run producer for the Braves this season, as his 67 RBIs are 4th in the league and lead the team. He also has a team-high 21 homers and is batting .296. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 41 RBIs and has 12 homers, which is 14th in the league. Olson’s batting average is just .241, but he has been swinging a better bat of late, going 11/36 in his last 10 games.

Overall, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. They have been a pretty good home run hitting team and have the league’s 5th ranked offense in terms of home runs. As a team, they are batting .243, which is 13th in the league.

Phillies vs Braves Prediction

Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Braves. So, we like them on the money line at -144. At that payout, we see this as a good value pick, as there are some other ways you could go about this one.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Max Fried finishing with five strikeouts, compared to Aaron Nola at five as well. However, Nola is projected to go six innings, while Fried is projected to go seven, which is why we have Fried as the better option to pick up the win.


All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!


* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.