San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Prediction

MLB San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 5/17/2024

The San Diego Padres (22-24) travel to face off against the Atlanta Braves (26-14) on Friday, May 17th. This game will be played at Truist Park in Atlanta and televised on BSSE. Both the Padres and Braves are looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. First pitch is set for 7:20 ET.

Padres vs Braves

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The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rockies with an 8-0 loss. San Diego was actually the heavy favorite at -246 going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Rockies scored three times in the 2nd.

Offensively, the Padres only had four fewer hits than the Rockies but didn’t score a run. Donovan Solano was the only Padres hitter to have more than one hit, going 2/3. The Padres also wasted a big game from Trent Grisham, who went 3/4 with a double.

San Diego is on the road today, looking to pick up a win vs. the Braves, as they are 22-24 overall and trail the Dodgers and Diamondbacks by seven games in the NL West. The Padres have dropped three straight games, losing the final three games of their series vs. the Rockies. So far, they are 12-13 in divisional games.

At home, the Padres are just 10-16 this year, but they have been better on the road at 12-8. As the road underdog, the Padres have gone 7-5 this year, and they are an even 14-14 as the favorite. San Diego’s overall series record is 8-6-2, and they have won two straight series on the road.

San Diego is 24-22 vs. the run line this season, including 16-4 on the road. The Padres are 12-6 vs. the run line as an underdog, and their average run margin in winning games is 3.8 runs.

The Padres have been involved in a high-scoring affair in their last three games, with the combined run average in those games being 9.3 runs. This season, their games have gone over the total 24 times and under 21 times. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their games have gone over the total 8 times and under 4 times. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs this season.

Matt Waldron Gets The Start For The Padres

Right-hander Matt Waldron gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Braves on the road. He has made eight starts this year and has a record of 1-5 with an ERA of 5.49. Waldron’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.45. In his last outing, he went 5 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, six hits, and two homers. Waldron took the loss in that start. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Waldron’s only win of the season came on April 24th against the Rockies, where he went six innings and gave up just one earned run.

Padres Offense Breakdown

As a team, the Padres are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better on the road, putting up an average of 5.4 runs per contest. San Diego comes into the game with the 7th best team batting average in the MLB, hitting a combined .253.

Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth are both in the top 2 in home runs for the Padres, with Profar’s seven homers being 2nd on the team and Cronenworth’s seven being 2nd. Profar is also 9th in the league in RBIs, with 29. Profar is batting .322 for the season, while Cronenworth comes in at .265. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a team-high eight home runs but is batting just .256.

Heading into their last game vs. the Cubs, the Braves closed out the series with a 7-1 loss. This was especially tough, as they were the heavy favorite at -189. Offensively, the Braves only scored one run on eight hits and didnjson’t hit a home run.

Charlie Morton got the start for the Braves and took the loss. He only lasted three innings, giving up three earned runs on five hits. Zack Short was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a run scored. However, the Braves’s other seven hits were all singles.

With an overall record of 26-14, the Braves are 2nd in the NL East, 2.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have been good against other teams in the NL East, putting up a mark of 10-5. The Braves will host the Padres today with an overall record of 15-5 at home compared to 11-9 on the road.

Atlanta has put together a three-game winning streak in series, and their overall series record is 10-3-1, which includes going 2-1 in their most recent series vs. the Cubs. As for their performance as the favorite, the Braves have gone 26-11 and are 0-3 as the underdog this year.

When the Braves win, they win big, with an average run differential of +3.6 runs per game. However, when they lose, they tend to lose by an average of -3.3 runs per game. Overall, they have a run line record of 22-18, and they are 10-10 at home and 12-8 on the road.

The Braves have gone under the total in nine straight games, and their over/under record is 12-26 for the season. The average over/under line in Braves games is 9 runs, but today’s line is set at 8.5 runs. The Braves have played 19 games with higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs, and they have gone 3-7 in games with an 8.5-run line.

Max Fried Gets The Start For The Braves

Max Fried has made one complete game shutout this year and has a record of 3-1 with an ERA of 3.57. In his most recent outing, Fried went seven innings, picking up the win and not allowing a run. He only gave up three hits in that outing. Looking back, Fried has been very good, as he has not allowed a run in three of his last four outings. Fried’s ERA for the season is 7.27 at home compared to 8.74 on the road. He has made four quality starts this year.

Braves Offense Breakdown

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Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear of late, going 13/34 in his last 10 games with three homers and nine RBIs. For the season, he is batting .327 with 12 homers and 41 RBIs, which is good for the top spot in the league. Ozuna also comes into the game on a nine-game hitting streak. Matt Olson and Travis d’Arnaud are both tied for 2nd on the team with five homers apiece.

As a team, the Braves are 6th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been a good home and road team offensively, and they are also one of the league’s top home run hitting clubs. Overall, they are batting .255, which is the 5th best mark in the MLB.

Padres vs Braves Prediction

Our prediction for today’s Padres vs. Braves game is to take the over, with the line sitting at 8.5 runs. We see the Braves coming out on top with a final score of 6-5. However, the payout for a Braves win is not great at -215, and with the payout for the Padres at +181, there is some value in taking the Padres.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Max Fried finishing with four strikeouts compared to Matt Waldron with five. However, we have Fried’s chances of picking up the win as better than Waldron, with Fried ranking sixth and Waldron 16th.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.