The San Diego Padres (24-24) travel to face off against the Atlanta Braves (26-16) on Monday, May 20th. This game will be played at Truist Park in Atlanta and televised on None. The Padres are coming off a win in their previous game, while the Braves are looking to get back on track from a loss to the Padres. First pitch is set for 12:20 ET.
Padres vs Braves
San Diego cruised to an easy 9-1 win over the Braves in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 4th inning, scoring all four of their runs. As for the Braves, they scored their only run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Padres were the slight underdogs at +103.
Yu Darvish pitched well for the Padres in this one, going seven innings and striking out nine without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Bryce Elder took the loss for the Braves, going just three innings and giving up six runs.
Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth each homered for the Padres, while Jurickson Profar scored twice and drove in two runs while going 3/4. Manny Machado also had a two-hit game and scored a run for San Diego’s offense.
San Diego is at an even 24-24 overall, and they are 7.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Padres have won two straight games, and these two wins have come after dropping three in a row. Their overall record vs. other NL West teams is 12-13 this season.
At home, the Padres are just 10-16 this season, but they have been good on the road, going 14-8. As the road underdog, the Padres have gone 9-5 this year and have won three straight road games overall. San Diego’s overall series record is 8-6-2, and they have won two straight series on the road.
The Padres are a team that has been profitable to bettors on the run line this season, as they are 26-22 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 18-4 on the run line. Their average run margin on the road is +1.8, and they have covered the run line in five straight road games. They have been a better bet on the run line as an underdog, going 14-6, compared to 12-16 as a favorite.
The Padres and Braves have a combined run average of 9.0 runs per game this season, and the over/under line for today’s game is set at 7.5 runs. The over/under record for the Padres this season is 25-22, and when the line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 8-8. Overall, 62.5% of their games this season have had higher over/under lines than today’s 7.5-run total.
Dylan Cease Gets The Start For The Padres
Padres starter Dylan Cease comes into the game with a record of 5-3 and an ERA of 2.46. He has made six quality starts this year and is averaging 11.13 strikeouts per nine innings. Cease’s last outing came on May 14th, where he took the loss, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Cease has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 4-0 and a 1.43 ERA compared to 1-3 with a 4.03 ERA at home.
Padres Offense Breakdown
So far this season, the Padres have been one of the league’s best offensive teams, averaging 4.6 runs per game (8th). They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.5 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .257, which is the 3rd best mark in the league, and are also among the league leaders in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
Jurickson Profar has been one of the league’s best hitters this season, coming in with a batting average of .335 and 31 RBIs, which is the best mark on the team and 8th best in the league. He is also on a 7-game hitting streak. Profar and Jake Cronenworth are tied for the team lead in home runs, with 8 apiece. However, Cronenworth has gone just 5/24 in his last six games.
Atlanta will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak today, with these three losses coming in the first two games of their series vs. the Padres. So far, the Braves are 26-16, putting them five games behind the Phillies in the NL East. In the division, they have gone 10-5 this season.
At home, the Braves are 15-7 this year and 11-9 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves are 26-13 and 0-3 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Braves are 10-3-1 this year and have won three straight series.
The Braves have been a solid run line bet this season, going 22-20 overall. They are 10-12 against the run line at home, where they have a run differential of +0.5 runs per game. They are 12-8 against the run line on the road, where they have a run differential of +1.4 runs per game. They have been favored in 39 of their 42 games and are 20-19 against the run line in those games.
Braves games have gone over the total in 13 of 40 games this season, and the average combined run total in their games is 8.4 runs. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs, and the over/under line for today’s game is 7.5 runs. The Braves’ games have had an over/under line of 7.5 runs in four games this season, and the over is 0-4 in those games.
Reynaldo López Gets The Start For The Braves
Through seven starts, Reynaldo López has a record of 2-1 and an ERA of 1.34 for the Braves. He has made four quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t give up an earned run. In that May 13th start vs. the Cubs, he went five innings, giving up two hits, two walks, and no homers. López finished with a no-decision in that outing. At home, he is 1-0 with an ERA of 0.74. On the road, his ERA is 2.3, and he has a record of 1-1.
Braves Offense Breakdown
Marcell Ozuna has been a big part of the Braves lineup this season, as he comes into the game with a batting average of .323 to go along with 12 home runs and 41 RBIs, which is 2nd in the league. He is also on an 11-game hitting streak. Ozuna has also been hot of late, going 13/34 in his last 10 games. Matt Olson and Travis d’Arnaud are also tied for 2nd on the team with five homers apiece.
As a team, the Braves are 9th in the league in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. They have been a good home and road team this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road and 4.5 at home. Overall, they are 5th in team batting average and have the league’s 3rd best BABIP.
Padres vs Braves Prediction
Our predicted final score for this game is 6-5 in favor of the Padres, and with them having a money line of +104, we see this as a great value pick. Offensively, we have the Padres finishing with 12 hits compared to the Braves with nine.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Dylan Cease finishing with six strikeouts compared to Reynaldo Lopez with five. Lopez has a higher chance of picking up the win, but we still like the Padres to come out on top.
All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!
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Last updated:May 20, 2024 Braves, Padres