TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears NCAAB Betting Prediction

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears Prediction 1/27/2024

The TCU Horned Frogs (14-5) travel to face off against the Baylor Bears (14-4) on Saturday, January 27th. This game will be played at Foster Pavilion in Waco and televised on ESPN2. TCU is coming off a win in their previous game, while Baylor is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Texas. Tip-off is set for 4:00 ET.

TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears

The TCU Horned Frogs Are Coming Off A Win

TCU heads into this game as a 5.5-point underdog. On the road, the Horned Frogs have gone 5-2 this season, and their average scoring margin on the road is +8.3 points per game. So far, they are 1-2 as an underdog.

With a win in their last game, TCU’s overall record is now 14-5. In Big 12 games, they have gone 3-3 compared to 11-2 in non-conference games. Over their last 10 road games, the Horned Frogs are 6-4.

TCU has a solid ATS mark of 11-8 this season, and they have been especially strong vs. the spread on the road, going 5-2. Over their last 3 road games, the Horned Frogs are 2-1 vs. the spread, and they have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road contests. As the underdog, TCU has an ATS record of 2-1 this year and they are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.

This season, the over/under record for TCU games is 10-9 and today’s line of 154.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (149.6). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 148 points.

The Baylor Bears Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

After losing their last two games, Baylor will look to get back on track as a 5.5-point favorite against TCU. So far this season, the Bears have gone 14-4, including a perfect 11-0 record at home.

Throughout the year, Baylor has been favored in 13 of their 18 games, going 12-1 in those games. Their average scoring margin at home is an impressive +23.6 points per game.

As the favorite this season, Baylor has gone 9-4 vs. the spread. At home, the Bears are 9-2 ATS this year and have an overall ATS mark of 11-6. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, Baylor has an ATS record of 8-2.

This season, the over/under record for Baylor games is 9-8 and the average scoring total in their games is 152.5 points. Today’s over/under line of 154.5 is higher than the average OU line in their games (149.4). So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line.

TCU Offense Breakdown

In their recent matchup, the TCU offense ended with 74 points against Oklahoma State. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 52.6% and made 3 threes. Leading TCU in scoring vs. Oklahoma State was Emanuel Miller with his 21 points. Micah Peavy also added 16 points for the Horned Frogs.

Emanuel Miller (F) 16.5 6.0 3.0
Micah Peavy (G) 10.9 5.0 2.8
Jameer Nelson Jr. (G) 10.5 2.8 3.1

Baylor Offense Breakdown

The Baylor offense is coming off a game in which they scored 73 points vs. Texas. Overall their field goal percentage was 47.9% while connecting on 11 threes. Offensively, the Bears have a season long field goal percentage of 49%, which is 34th in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 44th in percentage and 53rd in three-pointers made.

Ja’Kobe Walter (G) 15.2 4.6 1.4
RayJ Dennis (G) 12.7 3.8 6.4
Langston Love (G) 11.6 2.1 1.2

TCU Team Defense

The Horned Frogs’ defense is presently ranked 95th nationally, allowing an average of 68.8 points per contest. In today’s game vs. Baylor, the TCU defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, TCU made 17 free-throws vs. the Horned Frogs.

Baylor Team Defense

The Bears’ defense is presently ranked 99th nationally, allowing an average of 69.2 points per contest. So far, the Baylor defense is giving up an average of 7.3 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 10.7 times per game (456th).

Horned Frogs vs Bears Trends

  • In their last ten games away from home, the Horned Frogs have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 7-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 79 points per game in this stretch.
  • Through their last five home games, Baylor has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 1-4 while averaging 69 points per game.
  • Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Horned Frogs have gone 4-6 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-8.
  • Baylor has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Horned Frogs vs Bears Prediction

Not only do we have the Bears winning this one by a score of 76-68, but we see them covering the spread. Our pick is to grab the Bears at -5.5.

Right now, the over/under line for the game is sitting at 154.5 and given that our model is projecting 144 points between the teams, we like the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.