Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAAB Betting Prediction

Auburn vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction 1/27/2024

The Auburn Tigers (16-3) travel to face off against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-6) on Saturday, January 27th. This game will be played at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville and televised on SECN. Both Auburn and Mississippi State will be looking to bounce back from losses in their previous games. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 ET.

Auburn Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

The Auburn Tigers Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

After losing to Alabama in their last game, Auburn enters this matchup as a 2.5-point favorite. The Tigers have gone 16-2 when favored this season and have a 5-1 record in Southeastern Conference play.

On the road this season, Auburn has gone 6-3, and they have a scoring margin of +14.0 points per game in those games. Over their last 10 road games, the Tigers have gone 6-4.

As the favorite, Auburn has gone 12-6 vs. the spread this season. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Tigers are 8-2 vs. the spread. On the road this year, Auburn has an ATS mark of 6-3 and their ATS record over their last 3 road games is 2-1.

On the season, Auburn’s over/under record is 7-12 and today’s over/under line of 146.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (150.6). Over their last three games, their games have averaged 146 points compared to their season average of 149.3 points. So far this year, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s over/under line.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Mississippi State has been a much better team at home this season, going 9-2 compared to their 4-4 record on the road. They have also been better as the underdog, going 1-2 compared to 12-4 as the favorite.

The Bulldogs come into this game with a 13-6 record, including a 2-4 mark in Southeastern Conference play. After a 79-70 loss to Florida, Mississippi State is 8-2 in their last ten games at home.

Against the spread, Mississippi State has a record of 9-9-1 this season. At home, their ATS mark is 5-5-1. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Bulldogs have gone 6-4 vs. the spread. In their last three games as the underdog, Mississippi State is 1-2 ATS.

This season, the over/under record for Mississippi State is 8-10-1. The average scoring total in their games is 141.1 points, while the average over/under line is 139. So far, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line of 146.5. In their last three games, their over/under record is 1-2, and the average scoring total in those games is 145 points.

Auburn Offense Breakdown

The Auburn offense is coming off a game where they scored 75 points against Alabama. They posted a field goal percentage of 41.8% and connected on 5 threes. Johni Broome is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 15.8 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, Jaylin Williams brings a PPG average of 12.2 into the game.

Johni Broome (F) 15.8 8.7 1.7
Jaylin Williams (F) 12.2 5.4 1.9
Aden Holloway (G) 9.6 1.5 3.3

Mississippi State Offense Breakdown

In their recent matchup, the Mississippi State offense ended with 70 points against Florida. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 38.7% and made 8 threes. The Mississippi State offense has been looking to get up shots from outside so far this season, averaging 23.8 three-point attempts per contest. Overall, they have connected on 31% of their looks from outside this season.

Josh Hubbard (G) 14.8 2.2 1.5
Cameron Matthews (F) 9.1 6.5 2.7
Jimmy Bell Jr. (F) 7.4 7.3 0.7

Auburn Team Defense

This season, the Auburn defense has been impressive, holding the 45th position in the country while permitting an average of 66.0 points per contest. Against Alabama in their most recent game, the Auburn defense gave up a total of 79 points while allowing Alabama to hit 38% of their shots.

Mississippi State Team Defense

So far this season, the Mississippi State defense has been performing well, ranking 52nd in the country at 66.4 points allowed per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Mississippi State’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 40.5% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 27.7% this season.

Tigers vs Bulldogs Trends

  • Although Auburn has a straight up record of 6-4 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 6-4. The team averaged 79 points per game in these games.
  • In their last five games at home, the Bulldogs have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 70 points per game in this stretch.
  • As the betting underdog, the Bulldogs have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Mississippi State posted a straight up mark of 1-4 in these matchups.
  • Auburn has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Tigers vs Bulldogs Prediction

Coming in as the underdogs at +2.5, we have the Bulldogs as the way to go on the point spread. Not only do we have them covering, but our projections show they have a good one of winning this one straight-up, if you’re looking for a higher payout on the moneyline.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 146.5, and our model projects the Tigers and Bulldogs to reach a combined total of 144 points. Our bet is on taking the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.