Baylor Bears vs TCU Horned Frogs NCAAB Betting Prediction

Baylor Bears vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction 2/26/2024

The Baylor Bears (19-8) travel to face off against the TCU Horned Frogs (19-8) on Monday, February 26th. This game will be played at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena in Fort Worth and televised on ESPN. TCU is coming off a win in their previous game, while Baylor is looking to get back on track from a loss to the BYU. Tip-off is set for 9:00 ET.

Baylor Bears vs TCU Horned Frogs

The Baylor Bears Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

After losing to BYU 78-71, Baylor is 19-8 this season and 8-5 in Big 12 games. The Bears are 4-6 on the road compared to 14-1 at home, and they come into this game as 2.5-point underdogs. Baylor has gone 1-5 as the underdog this season.

Through 27 games, the Bears have an average scoring margin of -0.6 on the road. In their last 10 road games, they have gone 4-6. So far, Baylor has been favored in 19 games and has gone 17-2.

As the underdog, Baylor has gone just 3-3 vs. the spread this season. However, their overall ATS record is 15-9-1. On the road, the Bears are 5-5 vs. the spread this year and have gone 2-1 ATS in their last three road games. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Baylor is just 3-7 vs. the spread.

So far this season, the over/under record in Baylor games is 13-12. Today’s over/under line of 149.5 is slightly higher than the average over/under line in their games this year (148.2). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 with an average scoring total of 160 points.

The TCU Horned Frogs Are Coming Off A Win

TCU enters this game against Baylor with a 19-8 overall record and an 8-6 mark in Big 12 play. At home this season, the Horned Frogs are 12-4, and they have won two straight at home.

Overall, TCU has been favored in 20 of its 27 games, going 16-4 in those contests. The Horned Frogs’ average scoring margin at home is +14.4, and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games at home.

As the favorite this season, TCU has gone 12-8 vs. the spread. Their overall ATS mark is 17-10. At home, the Horned Frogs are 9-7 vs. the spread this year and 6-4 in their last 10 games as the favorite.

TCU’s over/under record this season is 14-13 and today’s line of 149.5 is very close to the average over/under line in their games (148.8). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 147 points and their OU record during this span is 2-1. On the year, 15 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line.

Baylor Offense Breakdown

In their latest game, Baylor offense put up 71 points against BYU. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 49% and made 5 threes. The team’s top scorer is Ja’Kobe Walter, who comes into today’s matchup with an average of 14.7, while RayJ Dennis also maintains a PPG average of 13.4 leading up to the game.

Ja’Kobe Walter (G) 14.7 4.5 1.6
RayJ Dennis (G) 13.4 3.7 6.6
Jalen Bridges (F) 11.1 5.1 1.6

TCU Offense Breakdown

The TCU offense is coming off a game in which they scored 75 points vs. Cincinnati. Overall their field goal percentage was 44.8% while connecting on 9 threes. The top scorer for the Horned Frogs was Emanuel Miller with 18 points, while JaKobe Coles also added 18 to the scoreboard.

Emanuel Miller (F) 16.1 5.9 2.8
Micah Peavy (G) 11.3 5.0 2.8
Jameer Nelson Jr. (G) 10.9 2.7 3.1

Baylor Team Defense

On defense, Baylor is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 71.4 points per game. In their previous game vs. BYU, the Cougars finished with a field goal percentage of 43% and a total of 78 points vs. Baylor.

TCU Team Defense

The Horned Frogs’ defense is presently ranked 145th nationally, allowing an average of 70.8 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, TCU’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 44.0% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 31.7% this season.

Bears vs Horned Frogs Trends

  • Across their ten previous road games, Baylor has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 4-6 while averaging 73 points per game.
  • Across their last five home contests, TCU has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 78 points per game.
  • Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Bears have a straight up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-2.
  • Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Horned Frogs have gone 7-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 7-3.

Bears vs Horned Frogs Prediction

We’re calling a win for the Horned Frogs, with a final score of 76-68, and we’re taking them to cover the spread. Our recommendation is to bet on the Horned Frogs at -2.5.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 149.5, and our model predicts the Bears and Horned Frogs to score a combined 144 points. We recommend betting on the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.