Florida State vs North Carolina NCAAB Betting Prediction

Florida State vs North Carolina Prediction 3/14/2024

The Florida State Seminoles (16-15) travel to face off against the North Carolina Tar Heels (25-6) on Thursday, March 14th. This game will be played at Capital One Arena in Washington and televised on ESPN. Both team’s come into this one having won their previous games. Tip-off is set for 12:00 ET.

Florida State Seminoles vs North Carolina Tar Heels

The Florida State Seminoles Are Coming Off A Win

Florida State is 16-15 overall and 10-10 in Atlantic Coast Conference play. On the road, the Seminoles are 5-8 this season, and they have lost four straight games away from home. For the year, they have been outscored by an average of 4.2 points per game on the road. So far, Florida State has been the underdog in 15 games, going 6-9 in those contests.

Most recently, the Seminoles beat Miami (FL) by a score of 83-75. Over their last 10 road games, they have gone 5-5, and their record away from home this season is 1-4. With a win today, they would improve to 17-15 overall.

Florida State has been right around .500 against the spread this season, going 15-15-1. On the road, they have an ATS mark of 6-7, and over their last 10 games as the underdog, they are just 3-7 vs. the spread.

Florida State’s over/under record for the season is 19-11-1, and the average over/under line in their games is 150.2. So far, 14 of their games have finished with less points than today’s line of 153.5. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 159 points, and their over/under record over their last 10 games is 8-2.

The North Carolina Tar Heels Are Coming Off A Win

North Carolina has been unstoppable at home this season, going 16-2 with an average scoring margin of +16.6 points per game. They have won four straight games at home and are 9-1 in their last 10.

Overall, the Tar Heels are 25-6, including a 17-3 record in Atlantic Coast Conference play. They have won six straight games and are coming off an 84-79 win over Duke.

Overall, North Carolina has an ATS record of 18-13 this season. At home, their ATS mark is 10-8 and over their last 10 games as the favorite, they are 4-6 vs. the spread. In their last three home games, the Tar Heels are just 1-2 ATS.

On the season, the over/under record for North Carolina games sits at 15-16. So far, their games have averaged 151.7 points compared to an average over/under line of 152.7, resulting in an average margin of -1.1 points. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 148 points and their OU record during this stretch is 1-2.

Florida State Offense Breakdown

In their recent matchup, the Florida State offense ended with 83 points against Miami (FL). They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 40% and made 12 threes. One area that the Florida State offense has been good this season is getting to the line. Currently, they are 51st in free-throw attempts per contest. Overall, they have a field goal percentage of 45%.

Jamir Watkins (F) 15.1 5.9 2.7
Darin Green Jr (G) 11.8 3.0 1.0
Cameron Corhen (F) 9.3 3.8 0.5

North Carolina Offense Breakdown

North Carolina’s offense is coming off a good game, putting up 84 points vs. Duke. Overall, they hit 50% of their shots from the field and went 15/18 from the free-throw line. Offensively, the Tar Heels have a season long field goal percentage of 45%, which is 193rd in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 119th in percentage and 130th in three-pointers made.

RJ Davis (G) 21.1 3.7 3.5
Armando Bacot (F) 13.9 10.1 1.6
Harrison Ingram (F) 12.5 9.3 2.2

Florida State Team Defense

At this time, the Seminoles’ defense is positioned 268th in the country, permitting 75.8 points per game. So far, the Florida State defense is giving up an average of 10.3 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11.7 times per game (588th).

North Carolina Team Defense

The Tar Heels’ defense is presently ranked 113rd nationally, allowing an average of 70.1 points per contest. North Carolina’s three-point defense is currently 133rd in the country at 7.1 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 40.5% of their shots vs. North Carolina.

Seminoles vs Tar Heels Trends

  • Although Florida State has a straight up record of 1-2 in their last three road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-2. The team averaged 78 points per game in these games.
  • In their last three home games, North Carolina has averaged 72 points per game while allowing 69. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
  • Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Seminoles have a straight up record of 1-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-4.
  • North Carolina has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Seminoles vs Tar Heels Prediction

For a point-spread bet in this Tar Heels vs. Tar Heels matchup, we’re leaning towards the Tar Heels at -10.5. Although our projections show the Tar Heels winning 75-69, we suggest placing your bet on the Seminoles for the point-spread.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 153.5, and our model projects the Seminoles and Tar Heels to reach a combined total of 144 points. Our bet is on taking the under.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.