citcus bowl prediction

Iowa vs. Tennessee Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Prediction 1/1/2024

The Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3) face off against the Tennessee Volunteers (8-4) on Monday, January 1st. This game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando and televised on ABC. Tennessee is coming off a win in their previous game, while Iowa is looking to get back on track from a loss to the Michigan. Kickoff is set for 1:00 ET.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Tennessee Volunteers

The Iowa Hawkeyes Look To Bounce Back From A Loss

Iowa is hoping to bounceback from a dismal offensive performance vs Michigan, as they were shutout and fell by a score of 26-0. Against Michigan, Deacon Hill threw for 120 yards against Michigan, but did throw a touchdown pass. Overall his passer rating was 64.58 on a completion percentage of 56.2%.

Going into the game, Iowa was the 22-point underdogs and in addition to losing straight-up, they did not cover the spread. The team’s combined 26 points was not enough to surpass the over/under line of 35.5.

So far, the Iowa Hawkeyes are 10-3, including going 4-1 on the road and 6-2 at home.

So far, Iowa has been favored nine times and the underdog in four games. This has led to an ATS record of 6-6-1 and an average scoring differential of +3.4. So far this season, Iowa boasts an over/under record of 2-11. On average, their matchups have resulted in a combined score of 29.8 points, while the average over/under line has been 34.7 points.

The Tennessee Volunteers Are Coming Off A Win

In their most recent game, Tennessee matched up with Vanderbilt and came out on top with a 48-24 win. Heading into the 4th quarter of the game, Tennessee held a 28-point lead. In the game against Vanderbilt, Joe Milton III managed a passer rating of 145.58 while passing for 383 yards. He attempted 33 passes and had a completion rate of 66.7%.

With their 72 combined points, Tennessee and Vanderbilt surpassed the over/under line of 57.5. Although Tennessee won straight-up, it wasn’t enough to cover at -27.

With a 8-4 record, the Tennessee Volunteers take on Iowa. Their road record so far is (2-3) and at home (5-1).

So far, Tennessee has been favored nine times and the underdog in two games. This has led to an ATS record of 6-5 and an average scoring differential of +9.5. After 12 games, the average over/under line in Tennessee’s matches stands at 55.7 points. The collective score in their games has averaged 53.5 points, resulting in an OU record of 6-5.

Iowa Offense Breakdown

In the rushing game, the Hawkeyes are currently 43rd in college football with 442 attempts per game. This has resulted in an average of 118.5 rushing yards per game, putting them 97th nationally. Their passing game has averaged 24.8 passes and 123.2 yards per game. When it comes to scoring, they are 97th, averaging 16.6 points per game.

The top passer for Iowa is Deacon Hill, who has accumulated 1096 passing yards and boasts a completion rate of 49.4%. He’s currently averaging 4.7 yards per passing attempt.

Tennessee Offense Breakdown

Tennessee’s offense is averaging 31.5 points per game, which ranks them 40th in the NCAA. Through the air, they’re at 251 passing yards on average, putting them at 49th in the nation. Their rushing attack is currently 15th in rushing yards, with an average of 434 rushing attempts per game this season.

So far this season, Joe Milton III has thrown for 2814 yards, averaging 12.2 per completion. His completion percentage is 64.8%, and he’s registered 20 touchdowns.

Iowa Team Defense

On defense, the Hawkeyes defense has 27 sacks and are 1st in QB hurries. So far, teams are scoring 13.2 points per game against them (51st). In terms of pass defense, they’re ranked 25th in the NCAA, allowing 172.2 passing yards per game. Moreover, Iowa’s run defense is allowing 106.1 rushing yards per contest.

Tennessee Team Defense

The Tennessee defense, going into this week’s game, holds 79th place for points allowed, allowing 22 points per game. Opponents have been gaining an average of 234.9 passing yards each game against them (110th in the country). On the ground, they’re yielding 114.4 rushing yards, ranking them 35th in college football.

Iowa vs Tennessee Trends

  • On the road, Iowa has gone 2-1 vs. the spread.
  • Tennessee’s ATS record at home (last five) is 2-3.
  • In the five most recent times they were the underdog, Tennessee has put together an ATS record of 2-3.
  • Iowa’s record vs. the spread in their three most recent games as the favorite is 1-2.

Iowa vs Tennessee Prediction

Despite being 8-point underdogs at away, Iowa’s pass defense look good against Vanderbilt’s in their last game. I like their chances to cover vs. Tennessee.

After crunching the numbers, our model is pointing to this game finishing with a combined 39 points. This projection has me feeling good about taking the over at 36.5.

All odds are courtesy of Action247 Sportsbook. Good luck!!

* All odds are provided by Action247 Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.**All views expressed are my own. My picks are my own and are not a guarantee, bet at your own risk.Action247 does not warrant the accuracy of completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these post.